1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Sharon McCrae
Progressive Conservative Party:
Hon. Chris Hodgson MPP
New Democratic Party:
Rick Denyer
Natural Law Party:
Maxim Newby
Freedom Party:
Charles Olito
Brad Bradmore

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Victoria Haliburton (99%):
Hon. Chris Hodgson
Durham East (6%):
John O'Toole
Durham York (12%):
Julia Munro
Hastings Peterborough (11%):
Harry Danford
Peterborough (7%):
Gary Stewart

Member of Parliament:
John O'Reilly

Surrounding Ridings
Simcoe North
York North
Parry Sound-Muskoka

Population: 100 978
Avg Household Income 42 507
Language (Home)
English 98 380
Submitted Information
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03/13/99 OEP Email:
Chris Hodgson won 68.42% of the vote (3rd highest in the Province) and defeated his Liberal opponent Sharon McCrae by 18,987 votes in 1995. I call this a safe seat.
04/08/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Hodgson, purportedly Iron Mike's heir apparent, soared from a "surprise" byelection win in '94 to a more than 50-point margin over the same Liberal opponent in '95. Also, this is the weakest '97 riding the federal Libs hold in Ontario (34%, with only a 2-point margin over Reform). Smells like prime grade "A" Tory country--the old hallowed land of sensible-shoes 50s premier Leslie Frost. Funny thing is, Liberal John Eakins claimed it for years until 1990, and then the locals fell giddily in love with NDP maverick Dennis Drainville, giving him all but a handful of polls (ah, those were the days...). But Hodgson's rebuilt the old PC machine with extra-strength epoxy, and those Bobcaygeon residents aren't so tragically hip that they'd defeat those square old Tories, huh? Welcome back, Leslie Frost, it's like you never left...

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan