1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Carolyn Campbell
Progressive Conservative Party:
Doug Galt MPP
New Demorcratic Party:
Murray Weppler
Green Party:
Tom Lawson
Natural Law Party:
Pascale Levert
Family Coalition Party:
Jim Psihogios

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Northumberland (100%):
Doug Galt
Quinte (23%):
Doug Rollins

Member of Parliament:
Hon. Christine Stewart

Surrounding Ridings
Prince Edward-Hastings

Population: 95 132
Avg Household Income 45 306
Language (Home)
English 91 360
Submitted Information
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03/05/99 I.MacFarlane Email: imacfarlane@accel.net
The election will likely be fought on one issue Healthcare and the Tories are in big trouble over that, since their candidate the current member is a doctor (i think). People are still very upset over the closure of the Port Hope Hospital and will not forgive the Tories for doing that. Carolyn Campbel is a strong candidate and will win the election.
03/07/99 glb Email:
I agree that this election will be fought on health care, as well as education. The NDP first brought universal health care to Canadians , and continues to be seen as the party most likely to protect social programs. Murray Weppler is a credible candidate for the NDP, well known locally and respected. He has an excellent chance of winning.
03/27/99 Email: salmon@kos.net
There is no doubt that the Liberal candidate, Carolyn Campbell, has the best chance of winning. The health issue will decidedly affect the Conservative incumbent, and, if memory serves me correctly, Murray Weppler ran in this riding before and lost - and I believe it was in the 1990 election when the NDP were swept to power. Voters may also remember Mr. Weppler's association with the Rae government as Communications Advisor near the end of the 90-95 term. He held this position when Premier Rae was booed mercilessly at the Bay Street Stock Exchange.
03/27/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
In fact, Weppler ran in 1995 (and federally in 1997). He's probably a more "credible" candidate now that he's actually an elected municipal official. But an MPP? Given the riding's history, I doubt it. For strategic reasons, it'll more likely be a Lib-PC tussle; and for all the concerns about healthcare, this *has* been traditional PC country (if in a very old-stock Tory blue manner; that is, with a better chance of being disillusioned with Common Sense excesses). Doug Galt may not have it as easy as most other rural/small town Southern Ontario PCs, but the Libs had better not deem this a cinch, either.
04/15/99 M. Email:
As a result of his having championed a number local issues, including his involvement in rallies in support of Port Hope Hospital, Weppler has gained considerable support in the west end of the riding, particularly Cobourg, Port Hope and Hamilton Township (where he's councillor). The east end is a different story, and while he is the most well known candidate of the three, the riding has never voted New Democrat in the past. As for Campbell, nobody knows anything about her. If it is a Liberal victory, it will have very little to do with the candidate, and I suspect that candidate profile will have an impact in Northumberland this time around. Three way race.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
Doug Galt is not unknown in the the part of the riding that's "new" to him. because the section he's gained seems more tory, he'll sqweak by the Liberal.
04/19/99 Email:
Healthcare is certainly a most controversial issue in Port Hope - - and Doug Galt has no hope of getting support there - no matter what successes he has with getting approval for a new hospital. His support in Cobourg is a little more solid as compared to Port Hope's. Until Carolyn Campbell begins her actual campaign - she is in the lead in Cobourg and Port Hope - well ahead of any candidate. However Carolyn can only go down from where she is right now - and that could possibly - depending on Carolyn's performance - leave openings for Murray Weppler to gain additional support. The more rural people would probably find it easy to support Murray. Murray Weppler will have a very difficult time with the city of Trenton - no matter how credible he or his campaign is.
04/19/99 Email:
The Tories held this seat federally for years. Tory MPP Doug Galt is well liked at Queen's Park and hasn't really pissed anyone off back home. The Liberals certainly are not putting this is there sure bet list. A small, but relatively comfortable Tory victory.
04/19/99 DC Email:
The below mentioned flyer should have little affect in the riding. The police are investigating the origin of the flyer. Campbell hinted the flyer came from someone who she dealt with in her previous career as director of Social Services in Northumberland County. The flyer was distributed to 1000's of car windshields in the Cobourg and north of Cobourg area. Campbell has also dismissed the possibility that the flyer came from the other parties - saying that she has talked to the other parties and they are as disgusted as she is.
04/19/99 Belleville Intelligencer Email:
Personal attack levelled at candidate (Liberal hopeful target of hateful flyer campaign) by Derek Baldwin
A circular being passed out in Northumberland County is levelling severe allegations that the county's Liberal MPP hopeful Carolyn Campbell has a checkered past. In a press conference late last week from her campaing headquarters in Cobourg, Campbell categorically dismissed the allegations as a "non-politically motivated personal attack" with absolutely no basis in truth whatsoever.
05/04/99 Tom Patterson Email:
Doug Galt has been a terrible MPP for this riding. He does not meet with people and his office is always closed. This will come back to hurt him on election day. Taxpayers pay his salary and Doug has forgotten that point. Carolyn Campbell seems to me like an honest and hard working person. She is the type of policitian who will not forget the voters who elected her. Carolyn will also put the people of her riding first instead of always doing what the party tells her to. This is the definition of Doug Galt.
05/06/99 Email:
Dalton McGuinty is coming to Northumberland today (May6) because the Liberals smell blood. Doug Galt is in dire straits and Carolyn Campbell has all the momentum on her side. McGuinty's visit will help put Campbell over the top. I do not see any way for Galt to turn this around.
05/29/99 A. Email:
Northumberland is one of those traditionally Liberal rural ridings that, like Bruce-Grey, is likely to remain a Tory stronghold for some time to come. Galt has not been a particularly strong MPP, but he is likely to ride his party's coattails to victory again.
06/01/99 lrs Email:
I think Liberal strength and seats will be limited to OTTawa area and perhaps Cornwall. PCs should win here witha slight plurality

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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