1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Thunder Bay-Superior North

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Michael Gravelle MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Ed Linkewich
New Democratic Party:
Nathalie Galesloot
Green Party:
Carl Rose
Independent:
Robert Woito

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Port Arthur (86%):
Michael Gravelle
Lake Nipigon (70%):
Gilles Pouliot

Member of Parliament:
Joe Comuzzi

Surrounding Ridings:
Algoma-Manitoulin
Kenora-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Timmins-James Bay

Misc:
Population: 81 625
Avg Household Income 48 638
Language (Home)
English 71 885
French 2 865
Submitted Information
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03/13/99 Bob Ewing Email:rlewing_22@yahoo.com
This new riding is composed of an traditional NDP riding and one where the Party has previously held office. The NDP has a strong election platform and the riding association a strong candidate.
03/13/99 Email:
Gravelle won his old riding Port Arthur, which is three times bigger (population wise) than Lake Nipigon by 6,700 votes ahead of the NDP candidates in 1995. Gilles Pouliot, who is not running, won with a margin less than 2000. Rather un-educated to say this riding is even close to NDP possible.
03/15/99 Bob Ewing Email: rlewing_22@yahoo.com
Gravelle won as a backlash against Bob Rae, not on his own merit. NDP has done well in this riding in prior elections. Check your history. 2,000 votes is 2,000 votes.
03/15/99 Bob Ewing Email: rlewing_22@yahoo.com
Galesloot is a strong candidate. She'll work with Pouliot's strong organization in the rural parts of the riding and will appeal to Thunder Bay's traditional NDP leanings, that helped to elect people like Jim Foulds, Shelley Wark-Martyn and Ernie Epp.
04/18/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
As goeth Fort William, so goeth Port Arthur? It's definitely possible that the NDP could win here; but with Pouliot not running, it now looks like the Thunder Bay tail wagging the Superior North dog. Beyond the Rae backlash, it was also Lyn McLeod's coattails that so resoundingly swept Michael Gravelle in; Gravelle's now got his place in the shadow-cabinet, and in the Lakehead to some degree it's almost as if Lyn McLeod never stopped being party leader. But there's an added conundrum, whose consequences have yet to be calculated: the NDP now has its own "favourite son" party leader next door. So while the Liberal odds appear to be better, for safety's sake I'll put this in the marginal category. Incidentally, the total here over 3 elections indicates a Lib-NDP dead heat...
04/28/99 Mike Tate Email:
Thunder Bay-Superior North will send Mike Gravelle back to Queens Park in the next election. The NDP will work very hard to take Gravelle out but to much of this riding is made up of Mike's old riding for the NDP to have any chance. It doesn't hurt Gravelle that the Liberals are at 47% in the polls while the NDP are at 14%. Gravelle has another advantage. Most of the NDP's best campaign people in the north-west are moving into Kenora Rainy River to try to hold the riding for leader Howard Hampton. This leaves little in the way of assistance to Nathalie Galesloot in her attempt to beat Gravelle. This will be a Liberal riding again.
05/15/99 Email:
Gilles Pouliot is from Manitowadge, Manitowadge is now part of the Algoma-malitolin riding. Thats a town where the NDP got lot of votes without having manitowage in this new riding the NDP will lose lots of needed votes.
05/22/99 Email:
The old Lake Nipigon Riding combined with Thunder Bay will be NDP. If you checked the history you will see that both amalgamated ridings have a long history of NDP such as Jack Stokes, Jim Foulds, Gilles Pouliot, Shelley Wark-Martyn, Ernie Epp, Doug Fisher. The Liberals have already began to crumble...during a debate the other night the Liberal claimed to be an "independant candidate" when he couldn't answer a question. Galesloot is a strong NDP candidate and will take this one!
05/25/99 Email:
Gravelle will win this riding with no problem. The federal mp Joe Comuzzi won his seat with more then 10,000 votes and the NDP cadidate with less then 3,000. There is lots of liberal support outside of ThunderBay and this riding will easily go liberal.

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Last Updated 27th May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan