Kingston and the Islands

Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Kingston and the Islands

Current Prediction:

Riding Profile:
Candidates:

Liberal Party:
	Peter Milliken
Canadian Alliance:
	Kevin Goligher
Progressive Conservative Party:
	Blair MacLean
New Democratic Party:
	Gary Wilson
Green Party:
	Chris Milburn

Incumbent:

Peter Milliken

Previous Result:

	49.51%
	21.82%
	13.06%
	12.42%

Surrounding Ridings
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox-Addington
Leeds-Grenville

Misc:

Population: 106 780

Avg Household Income 46 458

Submitted Information Submit Information here

	01/10/00	ML	Email:
This riding has been Liberal since 1988. Provincially, it's rejected the Harris Tories twice for the Liberals so voters are unlikely to take to Stockwell Day. Look for Peter Milliken to be easily returned.
	12/10/00	AL	Email: alehrer@sprint.ca
Incumbent MP Peter Milliken is the Deputy Speaker with eyes on the Speaker's job. Quite frankly, I think a lot of people here in Kingston are tiring of the lack lustre Milliken and don't see having a parliamentary technician as an MP as much of an asset. However, the strongest contenders for the job are all running in the municipal election (Alliance supporter Dave Clarke, Tory and Kingston Mayor Gary Bennett, Tory and Mayoral candidate Isabel Turner, NDPers Beth Pater and Charlie Stock) so if the federal election is called in the fall Milliken will likely be returned without serious opposition. If there's a spring election, however, look for a more interesting race.
	12/10/00	Jim Burnett	Email:
This seat is pretty safe for the Liberals. Peter Milliken has a pretty solid machine already in place and is ready to go. Look for the Alliance, however, to run a good campaign and make some inroads here.
	13/10/00	S. Webb	Email:
Should be a victory... the incumbent is a generally nice guy, if a little lacking in actual accomplishments. Look for a surge in Alliance support in this small "c" conservative riding.
	13/10/00	A.S.	Email: adma@interlog.com
One significant factor impairs Alliance chances in Kingston; this is the heartland of Red Torydom (remember Flora Macdonald?). In fact, there was a PC star candidate mooted for running here this time around--remember Hugh Segal? But even if Segal runs, this is likely in the upper half of Ontario seats the federal Grits are likely to keep--all the more so with MPP John Gerretsen holding the provincial Grit fort...
	15/10/00	Adam Daifallah	Email: 8ad5@qlink.queensu.ca
Hugh Segal will not be running for the federal Tories in this riding -- he is the president of the non-partisan Institute for Research in Public Policy at McGill and has never had good relations with Joe Clark. Look for Milliken -- a genuinely nice person -- to pull this one off, with the Alliance running a much stronger than anticipated campaign.
	16/10/00	AL	Email: alehrer@sprint.ca
Having just been appointed head of a public policy institute in Montreal means Hugh Segal will definitely not be running in this election.
	26/10/00	Christopher J. Currie	EMAIL: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I'm a bit bemused by the categorization of my home riding as "small-c conservative" by another poster -- it isn't. Kingston is represented by a Liberal in the Provincial Legislature (who won by a large majority in '99), and has had left-leaning MPs for years (even under the Tories, with Flora MacDonald). As to the election: there is absolutely no chance that the Liberals will lose here.
	04/11/00	A	Email:
Milliken fancies himself to be the next Speaker of the House (whether he actually is able to win a vote remains to be seen). This will be an issue in the election as his opponents will question whether it really is to Kingston's benefit to have a member who has neither voice nor vote in Commons debates. This issue is unlikely to affect the outcome of the race however and Milliken will likely be elected with a strong, even an increased majority.
	20/11/00	AL	Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
I haven't seen much evidence of the Liberal machine thus far. While all the federal parties seem to have waited until after the municipal campaign to get started the Liberals seem especially slow off the mark. I haven't seen any Liberal literature at my door yet, there aren't very many Liberal signs up and at the all-candidates meeting I attended a few days ago, Milliken seemed to be alone without an entourage of supporters. Either the Liberals are so sure this one's in the bag that they're sending workers to neighbouring ridings to fend off the Alliance or there's a serious problem with the Milliken machine. I still expect Milliken to win but I think he'll have a reduced margin. As for the Tory/Alliance contest, the Alliance seems to have more money but the Tories have a better candidate and seem to have a better organisation behind them too. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories not only do better than the Alliance but give Milliken something of a scare.
	25/11/00	Chris Chmelyk	Email:chrischmelyk@hotmail.com
Strange things are afoot in Kingston these days. Kingston is quite isolated from the goings-on provincially and nationally. One senses a strong desire for change here. Kingston provided one of the few municipal upsets in the province earlier this month, by turfing their mayor, and electing New Democrats to council. The municipal workers, after a lengthy and bitter strike last year are in protest mode, and the high levels of disaffected students and low-income people here are affecting things. Much to my shock, talking ewith people in the downtown core, many are leaning toward Gary Wilson and the NDP. Even in the Township, people seem to have a malaise with the Liberals (albeit in the Alliance direction). Excluding Ottawa, the CA appears to have a slim lead in Eastern Ontario, and the suburban and rural parts of the riding offer no exception. This, coupled with the popularity among Liberal supporters here of Joe Clark and the Tory candidate Blair Maclean, could spell serious trouble for Milliken. Even amongst Liberal supporters I have talked to, people seem tired of Peter, and think he has been ineffectual. At the all-candidates meeting, Peter seems tired and fed up with his backbench role - he also knows he won't get the Speaker's role he covets. Expect the old City of Kingston to go NDP, the Township and the Islands to go Alliance, and the Libs and Tories to have steady support in all areas of the riding. Another surprising turn in this riding is the strength of the Green candidate, Dr. Milburn. His strength will malign the NDP, but make for a much tighter race in the riding between the other parties. This riding may be won with less than 30% of the vote. Whoever wins will be dependent on voter turnout in the areas and the relative strength of the NDP and the CA in their strong areas. If either the NDP or the CA pulls a strong vote, they may win. If both poll strongly, the Tories may win. If neither polls well, or if voter turnout is high (the latter being unlikely), the Libs will hold on to the seat.

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