Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington

Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington

Current Prediction:

Riding Profile:
Candidates:

Liberal Party:
	Larry McCormick
Canadian Alliance:
	Sean McAdam
Progressive Conservative Party:
	Daryl Kramp
New Democratic Party:
	Tom O'Neill
Independent:
	Ross Baker
Canadian Action Party:
	Paul Isaacs
Independent:
	Kenneth Switzer
Green Party:
	Chris Walker

Incumbent:

Larry McCormick

Previous Result:

	39.47%
	26.23%
	25.84%
	6.98%

Surrounding Ridings
Haliburton-Victoria-Brock
Kingston and the Islands
Lanark-Carleton
Leeds-Grenville
Northumberland
Peterborough
Prince Edward-Hastings
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Misc:

Population: 90 424

Avg Household Income 42 323

Submitted Information Submit Information here

	18/10/00	B.D.	Email:
This is part of Sir John A. Macdonald's original riding and was always Conservative until 1993 when the anti-Kim Campbell wave swept the Liberal candidate in. He stayed in office in 1997 because Reform both siphoned off PC votes to themselves and pushed others to the Liberals to keep Reform and its victory claims at bay. The PC candidate placed second. This time, the same PC candidate, Daryl Kramp, has been nominated (May 5th) and he has been campaigning for many months. The so-called Alliance is in disarray and is considered to be in big trouble at the outset. The Alliance drop will send votes back to the PC candidate from both their totals and from the Liberal side of the ledger. Kramp is an energetic, likable businessman/restauranteur who has done his homework. He should win over incumbent Liberal Larry McCormick.
	19/10/10	AL	Email: alehrer@sprint.ca
This may be part of Sir John A's original riding but that didn't stop it from being one of the ridings to switch from Tory to Liberal in the 1999 provincial election. If Mike Harris' united right couldn't hold on to HFLA it's unlikely the divided right can gain it in this year's federal election.
	22/10/00	Pundit	Email:
The PC candidate, Daryll Kramp, is a strong second-time candidate, who has been campaigning for months. This is one of the strongest PC ridings in the province federally, and will almost certainly go PC this time around.
	30/10/00		Email:
Hard work by the incumbent and his team, and a high voter turnout would favour a Liberal win. This was one of the seats to go from PC to Liberal in the Provincial Election of 1999, and the changing demographics of the overall riding would favour a return of incumbent Larry McCormick. The PCs and Alliance complain often about the lack of a united right, but the Liberals won here in 1999 even though there is a cleft in the left. Darryl Kramp is described as a likeable businessman, but he hasn't got a corner on that market. Larry McCormick is described as a likeable former businessman who is better known in L&A and Frontenac than Mr. Kramp from Centre Hastings. The Alliance/Reform candidate Sean McAdam, although he has publicly said that the incumbent should be ashamed of his record, has himself done nothing for the riding but leave a couple of used parachutes behind. In summary, hard work by the Liberal candidate and his team should produce a win.
	31/10/00	rgb	Email:
With both the MP and the MPP sitting as Liberals, the prevalent thought is that the Liberals will carry this riding. However, both Mr. McCormick and Ms. Dombrowsky have been as silent as Marcel Marceau inside the region and as such have won very few people to them personally. There is a significant rejection of the arrogance of the Chretien Liberals along with a significant fear of the extremes of the Can. Alliance. This riding will likely buck the trend and vote Conservative for the personally popular Daryl Kramp.
	31/10/00	A.S.	Email:adma@interlog.com
Actually, in the '99 provincial campaign, Leona Dombrowsky won by beating that "cleft in the left" though a brilliant campaign (including Michael Snowesque "walking woman" election signs) in what had hitherto been a provincial Grit writeoff (and NDP, which had outpolled Lib provincially in the past, was reduced to a nominal 7%). As with certain other '99 McGuinty gains (+ the Ancaster et al byelection), I'm guarded about whether the same factors play federally. McCormick's been not without his tar, and the Bill-C68 issue--strongly reverberant at the Shield's edge--shoved him under 40% last time out. Trouble is, it's a 3-way rematch; and like it or not, the beleaguered PCs get a built-in boost wherever they're recycling their better 1997 cannon fodder. Old-style vote-splitting wherever the Alliance least wants it...
	01/11/00	EK	Email:
This has to be one of the strongest riding associations in Canada. The candidate is also well-known and should be able to win this seat after a good fight!
	09/11/00	WW	Email:
Daryl Kramp is the person to beat in this riding. Shame McAdam is parachute candidate who knows nothing about this riding. He's riding on the wave of Day and it won't work in this riding.
	26/11/00	lsw	Email:
McCormick will hold on to this riding no problem. He has worked hard in Ottawa, and represented us well. Sean McAdam will be flying back to where he belongs. Shame on the Alliance party for assuming we don't have anyone in our own riding smart enough to represent them. Kramp may have a few more supporters than last election, but not enough to make a difference. When it comes right down to it, McCormick does represent his riding well in Ottawa, and works hard to accomplish the goals for which his constituents have elected him. McCormick is well received in Ottawa, and will provide the people of his riding with honest and fair representation, when re-elected.

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