Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Hec Clouthier
Canadian Alliance:
Cheryl Gallant
Progressive Conservative Party:
Bob Amaron
New Democratic Party:
Ole Hendrickson
Natural Law Party:
Andre Giordano
Thane Heins
Marijuana Party:
Stanley Sambey

Hec Clouthier

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings
Parry Sound-Muskoka

Population: 93 066
Avg Household Income 40 718
Submitted Information
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19/10/00 Garth Email:
6500 votes more than his closest oponent in 1997, lots of goodies from Paul Martin, has the same birthday as Trudeau - Hec will be alright.
30/10/00 M M Email:
The incumbent won for the first time with 37% of the ballots cast in '97. This time the PC vote has collasped and the Alliance has nominated a very strong candidate in Cheryl Gallant. Incumbent MP ran as an independant in '93 election on an anti-gun control platform; has angered area hunters on refusal to discuss C-68, the gun control legislation as a government MP. Rising unemployment in Riding has voters asking what economic boom? This will be a break-through riding for Aliance in Ontario.
31/10/00 Christopher J. Currie
Hec's relatively low numbers last time probably reflect dissatisfaction with his candidacy among some stalwart Liberals in the area (frankly, I suspect that Len Hopkins might have voted Tory out of spite). Cloutier has somehow managed to get in Chretien's good graces, though, and I suspect that most Grit loyalists are resigned to his presence by now. Unfortunately, Hec looks like he's there for the long haul.
03/11/00 A.S.
The midget with a hat's triggered an interesting federal comedown for the Libs, although they still rule here provincially under Sean Conway. The upper Ottawa Valley had been fundamentally perma-Grit, w/Len Hopkins even holding on, albeit only by a recount, in the '84 Mulroney blowout. But thanks to Cloutier, who tried and failed to wrest the nomination from Hopkins, this was the only place where '93's winning Grit mandate significantly *fell* from '88. Then came '97, and not only the contentious Cloutier nomination but gun control, et al sunk the Grit % to unprecedented levels, below even Hopkins' near-loss in 1984. And it may just be the thing to allow RNP to *finally* cast off its Liberal allegiances this time, most especially w/CA nominating early and running aggressively. As a bit of a "frontier" sort of riding, with a strong FCP/CHP + CoR element as well as Liberal-yet-conservative Polish/Irish Catholic communities, it sets up the tableau for a big, big symbolic blow to the Grits. Maybe. But don't count out this short short man by a long shot.

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Last Updated 3 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan