7 Lanark-Carleton
Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Ian Murray
Canadian Alliance:
Scott Reid
Progressive Conservative Party:
Bryan Brulotte
New Democratic Party:
Theresa Kiefer
John Baranyi
Canadian Action Party:
Ross Elliott
Green Party:
Stuart Langstaff
Natural Law Party:
Britt Roberts

Ian Murrey

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings

Population: 106 794
Avg Household Income 56 391
Submitted Information
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11/10/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
The incumbent's past legal problems may open the door to the Alliance in this riding split between rural Lanark and hi-tech Kanata.
13/10/00 S. Webb Email:
Will be very close, but this is could be an Alliance pick-up due to the ethical problems of the Liberal incumbent. A hot bed of Mike Harris support.
18/10/00 S. Webb Email:
The chances of this riding going Alliance have just gotten better. Apparently, ex-MPP Leo Jordan is seeking the nomination. Redistribution cost him his provincial riding, which heavily mirrors this one. The Smiths Falls native is not called "Lord Leo of Lanark" for nothing. He would easily defeat the very weak Liberal incumbant.
21/10/00 Email:
the PC's will win in this riding since frustration is high regarding the current liberal regime, most people are not comfortable or prepared to vote Alliance and that the PC's have good policies (and) a strong candidate / campaign team
30/10/00 Daniel Email:
This riding is definitely going Alliance. The local liberal association didn't want to nominate the incumbent due to his conviction as a "stalker". They were forced to by Chretiens' dictate that all incumbents are guaranteed their nomination. That arrogance will cost them dearly in this Riding.
30/10/00 Brad Nicpon Email:bwnicpon@hotmail.com
Just some observations... I have noticed that the riding of Lanark-Carleton has been getting a lot of attention in recent days as one of the Ontario seats most likely to join the Alliance caucus. The Globe and Mail and a Southam News Poll have both contributed to this attention... it seems just the right mix of rural right-leaning and youthful high-tech industry antiliberalism (those who generally feel overtaxed by the Liberals) come together in Lanark Carleton and give the CA a decent shot.
31/10/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
Former MPP Leo Jordan lost the nomination to Scott Reid, a backroom boy who helped write the new party's constitution.
Editor's Note: also lost in the race was former Kitchener MPP Gary Leadston, who lost his provincial nomination last year.
31/10/00 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Murray may have won solidly on the back of high-tech Kanata in '97, but his ethical problems, together with the riding's strong provincial PC record (though Norm Sterling's more neutral than his neighbour Bob Runciman), *very* palpably raises the threat factor. Perhaps none of the ex-MPPs running won the CA nomination, but the "getting there" surely enhanced the Alliance momentum. Here's a test of the ability of even the most personally besmirched Grits to withstand a surge...
13/11/00 R.S. Email:
The incumbent was cleared of any wrongdoing in his "legal problems" and the backbone of his support is in Kanata, which is thriving. The Conservatives are also running a strong candidate in Brian Brulotte. He'll serve to split the right wing vote just enough to allow Mr. Murray to sneak through once more.
16/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
Bourque.com reports that Ian Murray was met with loud boos at a recent all- candidates meeting.
16/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
This riding is the Ottawa equivelant of the old York-North above Toronto in 1993. The area has grown so quickly that earlier election results are irrelevent. The influx of high-tech employees to the rapidly expanding community of Kanata will be Murray's saving grace. These new voters are transplanted Liberals living in a formerly conservative riding. So long as the Libs are stressing support for high-tech industry, this riding will belong to them.
19/11/00 MH Email:
Too close to call. Once a strong Tory riding; Liberal since 1993. Much depends on whether the PCs and CA split the anti-Liberal vote, though it may be that newcomers will support the Libs. Since Martin's mini-budget taxes not much of an issue. One of several seats the Alliance would love to take, but voters may not be redneck enough. It may come down to the proportion of men and women who turn up at the polls on the 27th.
19/11/00 Pundit Email:
Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed that Mr. Nicpon seems to be predicting an Alliance victory in every Ontario riding he comments on, despite the disasterous campaign Day has been running? By the way Bourque News had this report this morning: Is this the Hail Mary Joe Clark's been praying for ? PC Party sources are telling Bourque that in recent days internal polling shows they "have moved up 7 pts in Ontario, at the expense of the CA. The CA has NO idea what to do about it, as it was not in their plan. Seems all the help they were counting on from the Harris ground troops has fizzled and the close races are closer than anyone thinks" ...
20/11/00 jgh Email:
Some info: The Tories consider this THE winnable riding in Eastern Ontario, and have devoted attention and resources to it accordingly. The candidate, Bryan Brulotte, is charismatic and well-spoken. He has been working the riding pretty much full-time for six months before the writ was dropped. Given that the CA in Ontario is in free-fall mode, it is entirely possible that the Alliance will ironically be on the losing side of the anti-vote splitting argument that they have been pimping for the last few years. If the Tories pick up any seats in Ontario (still somewhat tenuous, but the growth potential is there) this will be one of the first five seats to go Tory in Ontario.
23/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
It looks like a two horse race down to the wire. (The poll took place on November 20th, surveyed 434 residents of the riding and is accurate within 4.7%, 19 times out of 20)
23/11/00 Absentee Voter Email:dlaroche@home.com
Compas showed Liberal up by 2 points over Alliance last Sundayin this riding. Since then, polls show Liberals slipping from 4-6 points nationally on unethical Chretien sentiment. No reason to believe this effect not being felt in Lanark/Carleton. Weak "stalking" Liberal candidate will leak votes to PC's given Joes recent positive movement and Alliance. Alliance vote in these polls consistently shows less volatility. Important Alliance win given high-tech nature of the riding. Will rank up there with Toronto area wins in Oshawa and Simcoe. This one goes to reid (Alliance) by 3-5%. Alliance 40 Liberals 36 PC's 16 NDP/Oth 8
23/11/00 Brad Nicpon Email:bwnicpon@hotmail.com
Pundit- First of all, it is not true that I have predicted an Alliance win in every riding I have commented on. I have many comments without a prediction and a few scattered Liberal predictions... but the reason for this is that I only take interest in the ridings where the political scene is Active in Ontario. If I were to predict every riding in Ontario the vast majority of them would be Liberal, but since it's so obvious, what's the point? (Wow, the Liberals are going to win Toronto Centre-Rosedale.. who knew?) Secondly, I have noticed that you have not predicted a single CA seat in Ontario. (though probably 20 Tory seats.. and when you don't predict Tory in a possible CA riding you predict Liberal) Isn't that a little unreasonable? Certainly you have to realize that the CA has a much higher chance of winning seats here than the PCs do. Look at the numbers. Sure the Liberals lead with 47% and they will win the most seats in the province, but to look at a Compas Poll today the CA has 27% in Ontario and the Conservatives around 14%. Numerous polls have shown this and not a single one has put the Tories above the PCs. Conclusion: Though the Alliance will not win a majority of seats in Ontario they stand a much better chance than the Conservatives. In response to this particular riding, Lanark Carleton has been cited as an Alliance possible pickup not just by the party but by newspapers and polls who point to the high-tech industry centres (who usually hold animosity towards Liberal taxation) and rural surroundings (speaks for itself) as fertile CA interests.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
Ipsos Reid said Eastern Ont Ca could break through- Ott citizen poll showed riding close- if CA vote committed to show up at polls- narrow victory- Libs not deserve 102 seats- far enough away from To and OTT Citizen more conservative- Ca good candidate- if this was SportsSelect, I would bet a tie but somebody has to win( this is not Florida)
26/11/00 Marco Anglesio Email:mpa@the-wire.com
Mr. Nicpon - I work in high tech and I haven't noticed any real animosity towards the liberals' taxation plan. For that matter, I haven't noticed any real animosity towards taxation at all. Maybe some mock resentment at the bite being taken. It's the support people, the business analysts, sales staff, management and the like, who tend to be less favourable to taxation. You have to understand that high-tech workers are generally university- educated and by and large either come from or were educated in larger cities. These both tend to produce liberal voters, as a poster above pointed out. The ring of cities surrounding Ottawa has the potential to turn into a suburban conservative stronghold, but only wishful thinking will make it into one now.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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