Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Joe Jordan
Canadian Alliance:
Gord Brown
Progressive Conservative Party:
John M.Johnston
New Democratic Party:
Martin Hanratty
Green Party:
Jerry Heath
Canadian Action Party:
Jane Pamela Scharf

Joe Jordan

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings
Kingston and the Islands

Population: 90 235
Avg Household Income 44 201
Submitted Information
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10/10/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
If the Alliance can't win here, there won't be many places in Ontario where they can. And based on the story that local Tory MPP Bob Runciman has turned down the chance to run for the Alliance, the inoffensive Joe Jordan likely goes back for his second term.
12/10/00 Jim Burnett Email:
This is a conservative riding. They have elected Bob Runciman for 20 years provincially, and now Runciman is the Chair of the Canadian Alliance's Ontario campaign.
Gord Brown, the CA candidate, is a popular local businessman who has been involved with the community for a long time. Being the former federal PC President, he also has the support of majority of long time Tories.
Looking at 1997 election's results, and the end of the vote split in this riding, look for the Alliance to rack up a win here. Bob Runciman, alone, will make sure of it.
11/10/00 Adam Daifallah Email:
Recently nominated Alliance candidate Gord Brown has done an oustanding job merging the provincial Tory, federal Tory and former Reform activists in the riding to create a powerful amalgam. Because he has done this, he has a solid chance at winning, especially with MPP Bob Runciman's support.
14/10/00 Michael Cooper Email:
Despite the fact that Joe Jordan has held this seat since 1988 after defeating then Tory incumbent Jennifer Cossitt, he remains a relatively low-profile MP. Leeds-Grenville has consistently been a strong conservative riding provincially, and until 1988 federally as well. Jordan won by a relatively small plurality in 1997 with a clear split between the Tories and the Reform Party. In this election the Alliance has a strong candidate contrary to the Tories who do not yet have a candidate and have witnessed a large number of their members bolt to the Alliance in this riding. It's reasonably safe to predict that the Alliance will be able to defeat incumbent MP Jordan.
13/10/00 S. Webb Email:
Gord Brown is a very strong candidate who has managed to pull even die-hard Fed Tories to his banner. As a result, the vote split should not be a factor. Combine that with the fact that this is a very strong small "c" conservative riding and it looks like an Alliance breakthrough.
15/10/00 Andrew Walasek Email:
Finally there is a right-wing candidate which can appeal to the voters. Sandra Lawn has an excellent resume however she relate to what is mainly a rural, economically depressed area. Doug Aldridge and the Reformers helped cause the split which got Jordan election however I don't think that will happen this time. If Runciman has any pull whatsoever this riding will go Alliance.
15/10/00 N.T. Email:
Combined vote of the Reform Party and the PC Party was 26 000 votes in 1997 compared to the 19000 for the liberal. The strong CA candidate, Gord Brown, a former Tory who has brought most of the PC organization with him, could definitly take this riding.
23/10/00 Tobias Email:
I really think that anyone who thinks the Liberals will easily take this seat again is suffering from delusions of grandeur. There are many issues that are running in the Alliance's favour here in the Brockville area, historically conservative voters, long time provincial tory riding, and the area patriarch, Bob Runciman.
25/10/00 Brad N. Email:
One of the best shots for the Alliance in Ontario is in Leeds-Grenville. The riding generally votes right wing, and as a result it's a bastion of Mike Harris Provincial PC support. Last time the PCs made a good showing, but the question is if this time the CA will have attracted enough of it's voters to actually win. Runciman's support could help. Furthermore, is there even a PC candidate yet??
30/10/00 Mr. Mischief Email:
Mr. Speaker...there are EIGHT fairly intelligent pundits declaring this riding for the Alliance (oops, make that nine) and ONE who thinks the Liberals will slither back in. Past results show a very good chance of the Alliance getting the 37 or 38 % they'd need to win this time. D'ya think it's time to declare this one a likely Alliance win yet? I do.
Editor's Note: No I don't, and a slap on the wrist for challenging my authority :p
31/10/00 A.S.
*Joe* Jordan's actually the son of *Jim* Jordan, who held the seat from 1988 to 1997 (and nearly defeated Runciman in 1987). I agree; Brown's a star. But before one places *too* much faith in the electoral machine of Da Runz, keep in mind that Joe Jordan's '97 percentage was only .18% higher than Don Cameron's surprisingly strong Liberal showing against Runciman in 1999...
03/11/00 JB Email:
One of the most right-wing ridings in Ontario. One of the ridings where the Alliance can make their breakthrough, no question.
04/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
Organization is one thing, but based on the last election, the Alliance needs to pick up about 9,000 Tory votes (~60% of their total) to catch up to the Liberals ... plus another vote for every Tory who decides to vote strategically. On the other hand, Stockwell Day is in the riding for the second time in less than a week.
06/11/00 Norma Greenaway Ottawa Citizen
That being said, worries percolate in some Alliance circles that many Tories, furious at the Alliance's poaching, are in an anybody-but-the-Alliance mode. In other words, those Tories will vote Liberal rather than Conservative if it looks like the Alliance could take the seat. Tory activist Robert Horton says those fears are well-founded. Mr. Horton is the campaign manager for Conservative candidate John Johnston in Leeds-Grenville. He has little doubt about where the federal Conservative vote will go if it looks like Alliance candidate Gord Brown, a Ganonoque businessman, could win over sitting Liberal Joe Jordan. "Conservatives in this area, if it comes down to voting for one or the other, would vote Liberal," Mr. Horton says.
06/11/00 Mike Wakefield
If the Alliance doesn't move in the polls, there are three Ontario seats where they have a shot; Bruce-Grey, Simcoe-Grey and Victoria-Haliburton.
07/11/00 Ben Campbell
Mike, your justification for a Liberal win is somewhat flawed. You are probably pointing to the Ipsos Reid poll in the Globe and Mail which showed the Alliance at 24% in Ontario. The fact is this sample size is too small to be accurate, and there have been two other polls in the last week by COMPAS and Environics showing 28% and 29% respectively. Certainly if support is this high, then Leeds-Grenville would be one of the first ridings to go. Stockwell Day has visited, and the turnout was tremendous. This riding will be an easy Alliance victory.
13/11/00 rgb Email:
In a riding that is, has been, and always will be very small 'c' conservative, and one in which the difference in the last election was less than 10%, I find it difficult to beleive that no one is predicting the Conservative candidate. The 'silent majority' doesn't garner much press support, but the people in my grandmother's home region are very stable people, and high percentage voters. The PC party has a strong fighting chance here.
14/11/00 M.I. Wakefield Email:
My reasoning for saying Liberal is based on several factors including the existance (all reports above to the contrary) of a PC organization and the vote splitting that this will cause; I went down #43 to Merrickville last weekend, and there were as many Tory signs as Alliance. As for Gord Brown (who dat?) and his "powerful amalgam" of organizations, he managed to get one mention in last week's local paper, and that was in the nine line story that listed the six candidates: no story, no photo, no ad, no profile. Or has the Alliance just written off the eastern half of the riding?
17/11/00 Pundit Email:
This is a long-time Tory seat, but the Alliance has thrown a lot of resources into the riding. The result is that they gained some support prior to Mr. Day's gaffe a day performance which stalled them and most other ridings across Ontario. The Alliance may just have done enough damage to stop what should have been a Tory recovery here. One can't help but wonder if that was the idea?
20/11/00 AL
The Tories are certainly doing well enough here to deny the riding to the Alliance. The question now is can they catch up to the Liberals by election day?
22/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
The good news for Alliance candidate Gord Brown is that he's finally gotten some press coverage (1 mention in 2 weeks in the Kemptville paper) ... the bad news is that the coverage was a Frank magazine prank: if the timing works out, he says that Stockwell Day can deliver his wife's baby, but no way on a circumcision.
24/11/00 SM Email:
The Alliance just doesn't have a big enough foot hold in Ontario, This riding is as good as red.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
should not be a Lib seat- with BOB R. backing and good candidate- a narrow win if lose- vote splitting -evidence that CA and PCs have to get together
26/11/00 Tobias
I have the feeling that the Alliance could snatch a defeat from the jaws of victory here. The rising numbers for the Tories could cost the Alliance before it costs the Liberals. But I think the Alliance will squeak out in the end.
26/11/00 Marco Anglesio
According to my in-laws, who live in Prescott, the political situation in Leeds-Grenville is very small-c conservative. Like Thatcher might say, theyre very "wet" conservatives, supporting government intervention and government involvement in a host of issues. It is not a very wealthy riding, and they need that support. Runciman has been a "good" MPP for them in that he's brought Leeds-Grenville plenty of pork; I don't think that the attraction is sufficiently deep to draw a large number of people over to the "dry" conservative Alliance. Especially with the recent media coverage about the Alliance wanting to kill off old age pensions. That said, if Runciman's political machine is handed over, lock stock and barrel, to the CA, then they have a more than very decent chance. However, I suspect that a large number of potential Tory voters will either stay with the Liberals or continue to vote Tory.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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