|This is my second submission ~ excuse me for being greedy. I lived in this riding the majority of my life and I campaigned for the Reform party here once. The Alliance is not a factor here and never will be. Look for the biggest Liberal turn out ever. This is the "bell-weather" riding of the country - the one the media look at for an early indication of the national result. St. Paul's has always elected a member of the government. Since the Liberals are about to get another apathy-driven majority, St.Paul's will elect a Liberal. The Progressive Conservative party came in second in the last 2 elections, but the alienation of the provincial P.C. government in this community and the Canadian phenomenon of voting for different parties federally and provincially will be a big strain on the already ailing party here. Tweedle dee and Tweedle dum will only be wrestling for second place. My guess is 60% for the Liberal; 15% each for the Alliance and the P.C. candidates; and 5% for the N.D.P.
|Defintely Liberal. This is an diverse riding economically and ethnically. The working-class, immigrant part of the community will give most of their votes to the Liberals. The wealthy sections will probably lean Liberal too. The riding has a large Jewish population. Stockwell Day has been courting the Jewish community, but he's not very popular among Jews, who tend to be liberal on the cultural issues. The wealthy old-guard WASPs, though many like Day's economic program, are worried about his stands on the cultural issues and will probably give most of their votes to the Liberals as well
|Dr. Carolyn Bennett is one of the most respected MP's there are - she's done a great job in this community and - when she gets elected again - she will continue to do so.
|Like many Liberal incumbents, Dr. Carolyn Bennett went to Ottawa with a mission to reform health care in Canada among other things. Unfortunately, the PMO which has a dictatorial hold on policy direction cancelled out any efforts by backbenchers to have a voice in government direction. Dr. Bennett, I'm sure has done an excellent job representing her riding, but must be frustrated that her voice isn't being heard. Perhaps she (and other Liberal backbenchers) should consider whether it is really worth it to play follow the (absolute) leader which Prime Minister Chretien has become in his decades in Ottawa. Despite the problems with the Liberal policy-making hierarchy, current trends will see Dr. Bennett reelected to Ottawa as there is no other viable party which currently represents the sentiments in the riding. Perhaps it is time for a large-scale caucus-revolt turfing Mr. Chretien from his job?
|Once a PC/Lib swinger/belwether; now the very epitome of sophisticated uptown "Kilbourn Liberalism" tattooed straight into the skin, and Dr. Carolyn fits it like a glove. Even the Jews of Forest Hill are too uppity to preoccupy themselves with the fed gov't stance on Israel.
|My canvassing here tells me that the liberals will win an overwhelming majority here. Residents (largely Italian, Jewish or Portuguese) may be apathetic, but will largely vote liberal (some NDP)... some of the undecided went as far to say they would definitely NOT vote for the alliance.
|I think some people might be surprised on election night. This is a two way fight between the Alliance and the Liberals - the PC's couldn't even get a candidate until the closing day for nominations to be filed with elections Canada. Dr. Bennet may be popular with the ladies of Forest Hill, but in the rest of the riding she has a horrible reputation for not serving her constituents, especially over the Hep. C issue. Anyone who attended the candidates debate at Beth Tsedic synagogue would have seen first hand that the Jewish community is openly hostile to Dr. Bennet and the Liberal party, not appathetic as some people would have you believe. No Liberal signs on the streets behind Bathurst, yet Caldwell has a huge number up in the Davisville area of the riding. Look for Caldwell and the Alliance to squeek out a narrow victory in St. Paul's.
|This constituency is about as likely to go Alliance as the country is to elect an Alliance government. It is a bellwether riding, and with the Metro area showing the Libeals to hold a huge lead, many thousands of Liberal voters would have to switch or stay home to put this in the Alliance camp. And who is Theo Caldwell, anyway? I live in this constituency, and nobody I know has the faintest idea who he is or what he does. To sum up: if some unknown Alliance candidate wins this one we're in for a rough four years, for in that case the Alliance will form at least a minority government (God help us).