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Halifax West

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:30 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:43 AM 6/20/2004

Constituency Profile
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Bill Carr
Ken MacPhee
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Geoff Regan
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Martin Willison

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Halifax (27.2%)
Alexa McDonough
Halifax West (72.8%)
Hon. Geoff Regan

2000 Result/Résultats:
14,289 40.95%
9,797 28.07%
7,412 21.24%
3,126 8.96%
273 0.78%

(51/212 polls, 15866/66864 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Halifax West
(114/223 polls, 42421/76789 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Mike D
Final prediction: NDP. Conservatives campaign is picking up here and is taking Liberal votes. Saturday Report on CBC declared Regan in danger of losing his seat. With the other three HRM seats in the bag, the NDP is concentrating its Halifax resources in Halifax West.
24/06/04 Max Morgan
How can you say that Regan looked and spoke "like a cabinet minister" at the local debate? After the debate all of Regan's people were sighing in relief and saying comments such as "I'm glad that's over with, etc." On the other hand, Ken MacPhee definitely showed himself to be the only credible candidate at the local debate.
24/06/04 Dubya
Email: [hidden]
Things seem to be turning around in Halifax West. The Liberals had a strong start but as the campaign has gone on the number of Bill Carr signs has grown and Bill has received a higher media profile. Jack Layton and other metro NDP candidates (including Alexa) will be in Halifax West for an event today. The momentum heading into election day is with the NDP. If the NDP has an organised election day the edge must be with them.
24/06/04 D C
Email: [hidden]
It was right to change Halifax West from Too Close to Call - however you switched it to the wrong party. CBC Saturday Report confirmed yesterday that Regan is trouble and has all but lost the seat to NDPer Bill Carr
20/06/04 jem
Email: [hidden]
Glad to see that this web site has finally seen what so many of us in Halifax West have known all along - this is Regan's seat and will remain that way. I went to the debate and Regan was the only person there that looked and spoke like the Cabinet Minister he is. He did not fall for the low blows Carr was trying (unsuccessfully)to land. Regan showed he knows the issues - and they are NOT simply solved as both the Conservatives and NDP would have us believe.
20/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
It's getting down to the wire, and a winner must be picked. After some reviewing of this riding federally, and the provincial ridings in this area, I beleive that this riding will go Liberal again, and return it's MP to office.
20/06/04 Brian A.
Email: brianappel@canada.com
I'm kind of annoyed that you changed it to Liberal. Bill Carr's campaign has been on the roll from the beginning and there's no doubt in my mind that he'll triumph in the end.
20/06/04 Boag
Email: [hidden]
How can this riding be too close to call? Out East, where the Liberals are stongest, this site gives them no seats! Geoff Regan will win without trouble - there is no doubt.
15/06/04 Buck
Email: [hidden]
I'll be voting Conservative, but Bill Carr is clearly winning the sign war and he seems to have a solid campaign on the ground. If Martin tanks in the debates (primarily the English debate), it could be a 3-way race. As it stands now, the Conservative candidate trails badly and he needs a major national trend to the Conservative side in order to be carried along on Harper's coat-tails. In the absence of this, it's a two-man race that Carr seems to be winning!
12/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
While this seems like a natural Liberal victory, the party is down across the nation. The NDP won here in 1997, proving this riding is not affraid to vote NDP. If the Liberals continue their slide, the NDP will win again here.
10/06/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
This seat could have been prime for the NDP but Gordon Earle opted to run in the impossible seat of South Shore as his home was moved there under redistrubition.
Had Earle run here I would call it for the NDP, however, this should be an easier victory for Regan than 2000, perhaps even easier than in 1993.
10/06/04 Michael Lawlor
Email: mlawlor@accesscable.net
The local newspaper here has recently called this riding the "microcosm" of the province, as all the big issues are present here. Normally, that would mean the experienced incumbent is in control. Unfortunately for Regan, this is not the case. Regan must deal with the baggage of the Liberal sponsorship scandal, as well as a more local and important problem, the filling-in of Moir's pond, which is has created much outrage in the riding. Regan failed to to anything about this issue while MP. It is ironic that his campaign headquaters is right across the street from the soon to be drained pond.
10/06/04 Brian
Email: brianappel@canada.com
Traditionally, most Liberal voters are more likely to vote for the NDP as a second choice than the Conservatives. In Halifax West, Bill Carr has a more organized campaign team than either Regan or McPhee, and almost every new sign that I've seen being put up this week has been for Carr. My prediction remains that Bill will oust Regan in a close race. McPhee won't even be close.
10/06/04 Mike D
Over the last few days, I've been through many parts of this riding and I've done some sign counting. In my neighborhood, Fairview (an NDP stronghold), there are a large number of NDP signs - almost every block has at least one - and small number of Liberals signs. Most notably, I've seen only one Tory sign. 4:1 NDP to Liberal ratio.
Old Clayton Park has a very modest number of signs up so far. This area was part of Halifax riding, and voted mostly for Alexa in 1997 and swung Liberal in 2000. Again very few signs outside of the main drags, with a 2:1 Liberal over NDP. I only saw two Tory signs.
New Clayton Park has built up over the last five year. Vast block of condos and apartment buildings rarely offer a chance to count signs. Those streets with houses with lawns are more likely to have real estate signs as people here maybe too busy buying and selling homes to vote. I counted a handful of Liberal signs and a couple of NDP signs. Nothing to give me a real idea.
Bedford also has few signs, but with a 4:1 ratio of Liberal over NDP. This includes some of the most expensive neighborhoods in Halifax, and even though they are clearly anti-NDP, very few have signs yet. It is most notable in a neighborhood like this that I counted only two Conservative signs. I wonder how many people here were caught down South and won't vote?
The other main neighborhood in the riding is Timberlea. It is a little further out, and leans heavily NDP. I only passed through once, but only saw NDP signs on private property (the odd Liberal was only on public land). A quick glimpse suggests a ratio similar to Fairview.
Most telling, is the lack of Conservative signs. Of all the HRM ridings, it appears the Conservative campaign here is weakest. I didn't expect that. Another notable thing is the general lack of signs, especially in Regan's best areas. I figure a low voter turnout will help the NDP as its vote is more motivated, so the turnout will be the deciding factor.
10/06/04 Don Sullivan
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go to Reagan. From what I have gathered with the latest polls in the area and signage display throughout the riding, this race will not be that close. Reagan up to this point has seemed to be able to avoid any controversy so far and has run a good campaign
10/06/04 JJ
Email: [hidden]
Which election have you been following, JMG? The Liberals are not secure in this riding. The claim that Bedford is the "heart" of Halifax West is debateable. Liberal support at the big houses in Bedford may be solid, but if I were Regan I would be losing some sleep over the high number of Metro voters clearly supporting Bill Carr in areas like Fairview and other areas south of the 103. The Tory candidate is a no show and in my opinion Regan appears to be hiding in a turtle shell waiting for the storm to clear for the Liberals. Carr, meanwhile, has established himself as a credible alternative to a Liberal cabinet minister with little to show for his last 4 years in power. The notoriously blockheaded Liberal incumbent is in real danger of losing this seat to the NDP. By the way, I was unimpressed with Martin and Regan's recent "promise" to renegotiate offshore royalties. Who are these guys kidding? This is going to be one of the ridings to watch on election night.
10/06/04 Liam O'Brien
Email: [hidden]
To answer one of the other repsondants Robert McCleave was MP for the region from 1957 to 1977. He IS well known to many RESIDENTS of the area. Regan is looking worse and worse when you consider his voting record in the house. Regan's somewhat odd defense of keeping the age of consent at 14 (ascompared to 16 or higher in Australia, UK, NZ and US -- with appropriate conditions) allowing consent as a defense for pedophilles will hurt him. It will likely help MacPhee and the NDP candidate. The latest poll is out from SES Research. Their comment was "two-
way race unfolds". That says it all. Some voters seem to be shifting away from the NDP.
03/06/04 JMG
Email: [hidden]
I guessed at the begining of the campaign that Geoff Regan would be re-elected handily, and everything I've seen in the past couple of weeks has only reenforced that opinion. Anyone who has looked around Bedford, the heart of Halifax West, lately will see without a doubt who is winning the sign war, and I'll give you a hint: Bedfordites clearly think their lawns look good in red. Combine that with rather poor candidates for the other two parties (the NDP's Carr, a comedian, has recently stated in a routine that homeless teens with dogs should stop begging for food and just eat their dog, and no one in the riding even knows who PC candidate Ken MacPhee is) and Regan shouldn't have much difficulty in securing the riding for a third time.
23/05/04 jem
Email: [hidden]
Who is MP McCleave?! I've lived in this riding for 15 years and never heard of him/her? I HAVE heard of many "red tories" who have decided to support Regan rather than whoever this MacPhee fellow is. Regan is the first Federal Metro Minister for as long as anyone can remember and in a few short months has shown he can deliver for Metro. The electorate of Halifax West are smarter than to get rid of his voice in Ottawa.
19/05/04 Liam O'Brien
Email: lpmobrie@dal.ca
This race is anyone's to win. The Conservatives are getting closer and closer in this one thanks to demographic changes in the riding. The cabinet minister looks odd at times... Regan voted against a motherhood east coast issue - custodial management of the nose and tail of teh grand banks -- and he's *fisheries minister*! looks bad. NDP have a strong provincial organization in this area... count on them to bring support up also... used to live in Halifax for a while...A uified Conservative Party will mean more organizational strength compared to when Cirtwell ran for the PCs in 2000. MacPhee has the backing of heavyweights in the provincial party...including former LONG TIME MP McCleave. Conservatives stand to make a coup here.
11/05/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
Bill Carr is in no way a low profile candidate. He's a regular on the evening news. I wouldn't be surprised if more people know who he is than Geoff Reagan. With the NDP polling better than it was previous to the big break through in '97 I'd say that they are likely to take it back as long as the Conservative vote doesn't collapse. Timberlea and Fairview will vote NDP but Bedford and surounding area tends to be Conservative. Reagan needs to win big in Bedford to keep this seat.
01/05/04 Kevin Perkins
I believe that Halifax will re-elect Geoff Regan handily. The NDP here are not as strong as they used to be especially since '97 and the Conservative support here has diminished substantially since '93.
01/05/04 K perkins
Email: [hidden]
There is no doubt in my mind that Goeff Regan will win this seat handily. Since the other parties are all running low profile candidates I can't see any other party winning this one.
29/04/04 Jerad G
Email: [hidden]
Although it seems at first that Bedford-raised Geoff Regan may have been a strange choice for Fisheries chief, such a shallow assumption is unfounded. Not only did Regan work mainly fisheries-related files during his stint in Al Graham's office in the late 90's, but until recently Halifax West included a large number of fishing villages. To claim that he has no experience with fishing issues is, in a word, wrong. Furthermore, Regan is well known as a strong constituency politician, with more than 50 open "Let's Talk" meetings under his belt. With his only competition coming from the decidely un-socialist NDP candidate Carr and the Tory insider MacPhee, Regan should once again be able to win Halifax West, despite any fallout from the recent sponsorship scandal.
26/04/04 Derek Lesser
Email: lesserd@staff.ednet.ns.ca
There is no doubt in my mind that the Liberals will win this seat. The regional minister will not lose to a radical right winged party lead by Mr. Harper.
19/04/04 CWH
Email: [hidden]
In 1997 this riding did not go back to blue like Charles said, it actually went to Gordon Earle of the NDP, who again had a strong performance in 2000. Regan might be one of Martins main Nova Scotians right now, but He is a laughable fisheries minister, and has caused too much controversy within the riding (eg:Moirs Mills) to be the sure thing that some people have said he is. Not only are the NDP very popular provincially in parts of this riding (Graham Steele and Bill Estabrooks both represent this area in the legislature), but also Bill Carr is a very well known public figure that can attract votes from people who are not traditional NDP supporters. This will of course be very close, but in the end Bill is going to make the breakthrough.
19/04/04 Mike D
Considering it was an uncontested nomination, there was quite a turn-out for Bill Carr's NDP acclaimation. I estimate 150 were in the Halifax West High School meeting room, with about thirty people having to stand at the back and sides of the room. It was interesting to see former Dartmouth CA candidate (later a CA staffer in Ottawa) Jordi Morgan in attendance; is this an early sign of Carr appealing across party-lines. Anyhow, as would be expected, Carr gave a rousing speech focusing on the Liberals...another sign that the Tories are not in the running in this riding, this time.
15/04/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
With the current Liberal chaos, this is not a safe Liberal seat whether Geoff is a Cabinet Minister or not! The boundary changes have taken away the NDP stronghold of Spryfield but the NDP candidate, Bill Carr is from Clayton Park and he has been seen pounding the pavement knocking on doors. Also, Fairview proper has been added to this riding and is traditionally NDP. Timberlea is also strong NDP. It will depend where Bill Carr puts his focus. If he hunts where the ducks are and the Liberals stay stalled in this scandal he has a real shot. I haven't heard if the conservatives have a candidate yet?
15/04/04 BriJon81
Email: brianappel@canada.com
Bill Carr is the only one running for the nomination in Halifax West, and I think he stands the best chance of winning. Regan may be the incumbent and a member of the cabinet, but Bill is a solid candidate and NDP support in the area is rising.
16/04/04 Charles Aldrich
Email: caldrich@emcoltd.com
This riding was held for 36 straight years by the Conservatives, only to go Liberal during the the great red tide in 1993. It would have bounced back to blue in 1997,(like many Atlantic ridings), but for the Alexa factor. And 2000 was "tough going" nationally for for the Tories. They were not considered an legitimate option by many voters.
Remember, the Alliance/Reform has consistently polled well in this riding, so the end of "vote splitting" will benefit the Conservatives. The Conservative candidate, Ken MacPhee, is well respected (albeit not high profile). His background in business (Steel industry), Conservative strength in Bedford, and his base of support in the Timberlea area, point to Conservative victory in Halifax West.
13/04/04 jem
Email: [hidden]
Geoff Regan has been called the best constituency man in the province. He continues to host public meetings (about 60 so far I think)to hear from constituents. He's not seen as a guy who had anything to do with the recent scandel - he was not in the former PM's inner circle. The voters of Halifax West would be crazy to kick out one of Martin's main guys. He's just starting to show how valuable he can be to the riding and to Metro.
18/04/04 J Cherniak
Email: [hidden]
Sorry, but I cannot believe that this riding is currently shown as uncertain. Geoff Regan is very popular in Atlantic Canada and there is no real chance that he can lose. The only candidate in Nova Scotia who might remotely have a stronger guarantee of victory is Peter McKay.
07/04/04 Mike D
I've been waiting to hear who my local NDP candidate will be and one name keeps popping up, more and more, its comedian Bill Carr
As nobody is seriously seeking the NDP nomination in Halifax West, I can safely say Carr will be the candidate. He is nationally known by many organizations and associations and appears occasionally on local TV, so I believe the NDP is making a good choice and will keep Regan and Liberals busy defending this seat.
Meanwhile, the Halifax West Conservative candidate is Ken MacPhee. I googled his name and found nothing significant. Perhaps someone else can fill us in.
20/03/04 Roger Rankin
Email: [hidden]
This riding is in the same category as Sydney-Victoria on Cape Breton - a sure thing for the Liberals a few weeks ago, that is now within striking distance of the NDP, which won this seat in '97 and is very popular provincially right now. Regan's cabinet seat would normally insulate him, especially as The tories won't be a factor in urban Nova Scotia, but any votes that the tories get will come out of his hide and boost the NDP.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We have to agree with the previous posting that this is going to be a threeway race. Liberals do have this riding and a popular candidate. The NDP had this riding and are riding high in the polls in Nova Scota, especially in the Hallifax area. Conservatives Have done better here than in other Hallifax area ridings. Just way too close this early in the game.
17/03/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
This is going to be a tight one, like some of the provincial races located in this riding (Halifax Clayton Park comes to mind), but Geoff Regan will hold on, I predict. The NDP are probably going to sap away support but not enough to beat him or cause a split allowing the Tories to win.
16/03/04 Mike D
Email: mdavis@hfx.andara.com
This was going to be an easy win for Martin's man in Nova Scotia, Geoff Regan. What's bizzare is why Regan got the Fisheries portfolio. He probably couldn't tell a Haddock from a Halibut, having from grown-up in toney Bedford, the son of a former Premier. Nonetheless, it was going to be cakewalk...until the scandals. I predict a tight threeway race. The Conservatives will do the best here of any of the HRM ridings with strength in Clayton Park, Rockingham and Bedford. The NDP has strength in Fairview and Timberlea, especially, and could also win.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
the NDP won this riding in 1997, but the Liberals took it in 2000. Since then, a NDP area has been taken out of the riding, and a Liberal area added. Using the new re-distributed numbers, the NDP would have finished second to a joint PC-CA candidate, beyond that, many of the NDP votes from the Halifax riding were for Alexa, not the party. The Liberals will win in a 40-30-30 split.

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