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South Shore-St.Margaret's
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:34 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:13 PM 08/04/2004

Constituency Profile
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John Chandler
Gordon Earle
Gerald Keddy
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Katie Morris Boudreau

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Halifax West (9.6%)
Hon. Geoff Regan
South Shore (90.4%)
Gerald Keddy

2000 Result/Résultats:
15,083 37.89%
13,979 35.12%
5,718 14.37%
5,013 12.59%
12 0.03%

Halifax West
(25/223 polls, 6229/76789 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

South Shore
(193/193 polls, 58390/58390 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Matthew B.
Email: [hidden]
This is a Conservative riding. Although I thought the NDP might have a chance, after crunching numbers from the last federal election, it's clear that the difference is too great for them to catch up to Keddy.
Look at these results from last election. (Combined between South Shore and the new portion of Halifax West).
PC + CA = appx. 21,400 votes
NDP = appx. 5,500 votes
Libs = appx. 14,000 votes
I realise that some 'red' tories may leave the party - although I haven't talked to any as of yet who have made that plan.
Most disenfranchised libs iwll go to the NDP... Let's say 4,000 leave.. that gives the NDP around 10,000 votes. I find it hard to believe that more than 5,000 PCs would vote for the NDP.
THe numbers don't crunch. Keddy is a very popular MP. A good, down-to-earth, constituency guy. He's popular, and will continue to be popular in a Conservative Government.
20/06/04 J. Croft
Email: jcroft@eastlink.ca
There is not much Harper could do to lose this seat for Gerald Keddy. It will be interesting to see how well the N.D.P. can do. Will it be a two way fight or a Conservative landslide? Will the Liberals completely self-destruct and lose to the Green Party?
20/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
I believe "the probable desertion of a large red tory" faction is overplayed. From what I see on the ground, the olde tyme Tories' palpable visceral (maybe even genocidal) hatred of the Liberals is overruling any hesitations about Harper. This predates the sponsorship scandal actually: Don Downes the Liberal MLA from this area was known to make disparaging comments about the federal Liberals up front as his modus operandi to get the crowd to calm down when talking to community groups.
10/06/04 Matt Risser
The fact is this riding was a PC riding for quite sometime, but with the inclusion of parts of St Margererts and the probable desertion of a large red tory and of course disgusted Liberal population the NDP has a great chance to elect a candidate for the first time. This is all providing Mr. Earle can impress the people here which he has yet to do. The danger is that the Greens will split support for the left. Many people in the riding like Gerald including myself but are hesitant to vote for him because it indirectly supports having Stephen Harper become the Prime Minister. It going to be an interesting race though.
10/06/04 Anon
Email: [hidden]
This riding is seen by many observers in Nova Scotia as likely the tightest (if not the only) 3-way race in the province. I understand why this would have been called for CP early on. To continue with the prediction is bold. It appear to me a definite "Too Close" situation at this point.
For those familiar with the Chronicle-Herald, many would agree that it has for decades had a right of centre slant in its political reporting. It presents the riding as a real contest, in large part because of the strength of the incumbant's challengers.
This is echoed by politically aware but non-partisan friends in the riding who are surprised by the large number of NDP lawn signs (outnumbering the others) in parts of the riding far away from the Halifax suburban region that pundits expected to be Earle's support base. These signs are in areas around Bridgewater that have *never* elected an NDP politician at the federal or provincial level.
Combining the strong tradition for Liberal votes and Conservative votes in various parts of the riding with the present anger at federal mismanagement and a real perceived fear among traditional PCs of Harper's agenda... it all points to a riding that is up for grabs. "Too Close"
01/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
Here's what newspapers won't tell you about this riding:
Katie Boudreau is quietly walking around impressing people and gaining some longtime community activists. She's a political "natural" and has no baggage whatsoever, except a degree in International Relations and Mideast Studies, which might come in handy to prevent wars Stephen Harper wants to join in. She'll pull some Red Tory votes (not many), but more importantly will deny momentum to the NDP, and this ought to win the seat for Keddy.
He knows that, and that's why he supports Boudreau getting into local debates. He's actually an old friend of her family, so, that might be a strong contrast to the attack-ad style of the Liberal anti-Harper and NDP and NeoConservative anti-Martin campaigns. People sick of all this will probably vote for Katie, and maybe make her come third. That would be quite appropriate, especially if people listen to Joe Clark and vote for the best candidate, rather than the "least worst".
29/05/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
The nomination of Gordon Earle as the NDP candidate will add to the complexity of forecasting the outcome. I agree with previous posts that the NDP has a foothold in Nova Scotia politics and has garnered enough legitimacy to be considered a factor. Harper is not selling in the East so anybody who doesn't vote Liberal may well indeed vote NDP. The polls in Nova Scotia aren't recent or have enough of a sample to reflect the current voter sentiment. This may well be in the NDP column by the end of the night.
15/05/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Interesting riding as it is the only riding in the Maritimes where the Liberals aren't a factor. This will be close between Mr.Keddy and Mr.Earle but in the end Gerald Keddy will go back to Ottawa.
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
After seeing the poll numbers, and Atlantic Canada's reaction to Mr.Harper, I feel safe in calling this this one for the CPC. While there is no general support, I think the sitting CPC MP's will likely get re-elected. The CPC is polling around former PC numbers in the east, and I think that's enough to hold on to their seats.
03/05/04 Cameron
See my post on West Nova; I think the same general political conditions active there apply here, even more so, and the NDP is running Gordon Earle, a former MP. With a good campaign, the NDP will take this seat as red tories desert the new conservatives in droves.
24/04/04 Cliff
Email: [hidden]
Given Mr. Keddy's successful run at the last two federal elections will make him hard to beat in this election. The recent redistribution of the electoral boundaries in this riding may favor Mr. Earle who lives in the new Halifax County portion of the riding.
As for the Liberal candidate, Mr. Chandler, he better start pounding some doors and boosting his public exposure if he expects to take a serious run at this seat.
As for right now I’ll count this riding for the tories.
19/04/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
The Red Tory feeling in this riding is strong, and it's hard to say how that vote will swing with Harper as Conservative leader. As Scott Brison's conversion proved, these votes can go Liberal easily. If Don Downe were to get into the race, the former MLA and Provincial Finance Minister, he could win. Keep a few points in mind: Harper and Day have stood for committing Canadian troops to Iraq, which means, given the many Nova Scotians in the military, a lot more military deaths in this region (the deaths due to "friendly fire" in Afghanistan got a great deal of play). Also, the fishery and related trades have powerful hold on people's emotions here, and there is more sustainable tourism and a desire to eliminate draggers and the "corporate fishery" which enriches bankers but impoverishes inshore fishers in an "arms race". There was been, as reported in the Globe and Mail, talk in the Lunenburg fish plant about the need to "maybe vote the Greens in", as the only party that has taken stands on these issues. Red Tories have gone Green often when they've noticed the fiscally and ecologically conservative platform, especially in Ontario. The Reform/Alliance vote in this riding was always weak, but, the Greens also have more participatory democracy measures in their plan than the new Conservatives do - and many union members voted Reform based on the promise of these measures. The same way Ralph Nader made overtures to disenfranchised small-c conservatives and went touring with Pat Buchanan, the Green Party leader Jim Harris has been courting Red Tories, libertarians, direct and consensus democracy advocates, many of whom are very conservative fiscally, very liberal socially, as the Green Party is.
If that Green vote rises up as high as 3 to 5 percent, some of it might be at Keddy's direct expense. There are whole families of Tories here who now consider the "Tories" no longer to exist, and their vote is up for grabs. Joe Clark held a lot of votes in the PC camp, and his departure and disavowal of the new party ensures that his followers will also look at their new options. The PCs' own internal polls in 2000 showed that more of its own voters would vote NDP than Alliance if the party dissolved.
Well, it has dissolved. Let's see what happens next. This is probably NOT the safest Conservative seat in Nova Scotia, that would be Mackay's.
13/04/04 Mike D
The Liberal candidate is nobody I ever heard of. All indications are the Liberals are again on the defensive in Nova Scotia, so there will no new seats whatsoever for them here. Gordon Earle, an ex-MP from Halifax West, will pull up the NDP vote (which is generally trending upwards here) to a second place finish. I totally agree with the Conservative prediction.
28/03/04 Steve L.
Email: [hidden]
Just got back from the riding and there's no doubt in my mind that Gerald Keddy should take this one again easily. He's extremely well liked there and is playing a prominent role in the newly merged party.
20/03/04 Roger Rankin
Email: [hidden]
This should be a conservative win, but a few things are scrambling things here: It's not clear yet how Mister "Culture of Dependency" Harper will play in Atlantic Canada; nor is it clear where the old red tory votes will go; and the NDP demonstrated some surprising strength in the area in last year's provincial vote. The NDP is also running former MP Gordon Earle, and with him in the race, this could get interesting. The odds are still with Keddy, but it's not in the bag for him - not by a long shot.
19/03/04 Jeff Toth
Email: [hidden]
Gerald Keddy will win this seat candidly. Not only did the he win the seat with a comfortable margain with the PCs, but also combine the Alliance vote, and remember you can't say "Liberal" out here with the word "Scandal" following soon after. Keddy is very popular in the area, he has a high profile, and he's looking at a possible cabinet position in the CPC as Minister of Fisheries.
19/03/04 Mike D
Email: [hidden]
I'm calling this Conservative for now. There is one thing to keep in mind, this is the weakest Tory seat in the Maritimes. If there is a negative reaction in the polls to Steve "defeatist culture" Harper taking the Conservative leadership, this is the first riding to come into play.
18/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I'd have to give this one to gerald keddy right now, if most conservative support holds (he did survive in 2000), then he'll win it, and if the NDP has a good candidate that just splits the left wing vote to help keddy. Have to check back once the campaign starts...
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
since 1968, the Liberals have won this seat only once: you guessed it: 1993.
Gerald Keddy will hold this seat for the Tories, and comfortably.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The NDP does not have a presence here, and has never held any seat in the area. This will be a battle for mr.keddy to hold onto his seat. Untill we see the leader of the conservative party, and the reaction to it, I am really unsure about this riding.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
This may be the tightest three-way race in the whole of Atlantic Canada. Conservative Gerald Keddy holds this seat, but he didn't win by much in 2000. Moreover, a Harper led Conservative Party may drive former PC votes to the liberals or NDP. The Liberals have a shot a taking this seat with the right candidate and enough Red Tory switchers, but they could face a challenge from the NDP. Former Halifax West NDP MP Gordon Earle is runing for the nomination in this riding, and the provincial NDP has significant pockets of strength on the South Shore. If things go right for Earle he may secure another Nova Scotian seta for the NDP. This is definitely a race to watch.

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