Election Prediction Project

Chilliwack-Sumas
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:03 AM 10/03/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:24 PM 22/02/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Democratic Reform BC
Brian Downey
NDP
John-Henry Harter
BC Youth Coalition
Augustine Lee
BC Liberal
John Les
Green Party
Norm Siefken
Moderates
Adam James Solheim

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
LES, Hon. John
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:43350
Dev. from Quota:-8.05%
Area (km2):271
Pop Density:159.96

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

74.80%
12.88%
0.00%
0.00%

1996 Result (redistributed):

24.18%
43.99%
15.01%
1.79%
1.15%

Surrounding Ridings:
Abbotsford-Clayburn
Chilliwack-Kent
Maple Ridge-Mission



08 03 05 M. Lunn
Whoever said that John Les would lose this seat is out of their mind. The NDP will not get above 30% no matter who they nominate as their candidate and the liberals will not get less than 50%. In fact anything less than 60% for John Les would be a huge disappointment. The Liberals are going to win this riding and win it big.
25 02 05 Fraser Valley
John Les has been MLA in this riding. He is not a popular candidate. Of course historically the odds are against the NDP. However, a decent showing in the Federal election, good candidate for Sumas NDP, and an unpopular Cabinet Minister, all add up to a potential upset. Surrey Panorama Ridge turned their numbers upside down from the last election. Look for the same here.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
This should be an easy win for the Liberals. Even though John Les lost in the 1997 federal election, that was only because he was in the wrong party since this is a very conservative area. Since there is no party to the right of the liberals, they should win this riding easily.
21-Feb-05 JC
Email:
In the last election John Les won with over 75% of the vote. There is simply no way, barring a major public opinion shift that anyone but the Liberals will win this seat.


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