Prediction Changed
11:32 PM 03/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

St. John's East
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Newfoundland and Labrador First
Coultas, Les
New Democratic
Harris, Jack
Noel, Walter
Story, Howard
Progressive Canadian
Tobin, Shannon John
Westcott, Craig

Norman Doyle

2006 Result:
Norman Doyle **
Paul Antle
Mike Kehoe
Stephen Eli Harris

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 06 DK
Shouldn't posters on this site at least have to provide some evidence of ‘seat predictions’ ‘that have been extrapolated’ and ‘have the Cons or Libs leading with Jack Harris in third place’?
I have not seen anything like this. There are mythical polls with no source provided on the Liberal candidate's website but nothing else that suggests that Harris will do anything other than crush the others like bugs. If there's any truth to the NTV poll (Harris +50%), the Liberals and Tories will be lucky to get their deposits back!!
08 10 05 Janey
I will not call anyone in this race but all the seat predictions I have seen that have been extrapolated (and I agree this is an inexact science) have the Cons or Libs leading with Jack Harris in third place. This did surprise me but maybe the polls are wrong. I hope so....
08 10 02 A
I am from St. John's, and Jack Harris is a very well-known lawyer and activist. John's. Harris was the leader of the NDP of NL for a number of years. His candidacy has also been endorsed by several provincial MHAs, and combined with Premier Williams' Anything-But-Conservative campaign, Harris will win this riding. A pick-up for the NDP, and not TTTC.
08 10 02 DK
Today's NTV/Telelink poll has NDP candidate Jack Harris at 52.3%, the Liberal candidate Walter Noel a distant second with 8.7% and in a statistical tie with Conservative candidate Craig Westcott at 8.2%.
Not exactly ‘too close to call’.
08 10 02 Porter
This one is ready to be declared, by a factor of greater than 5:1!
NTV news did a large poll of this riding that has Jack Harris with more than 50% of the vote. The 2nd and 3rd are statistically tied between Liberal and Conservative at 8% and 30% undecided. Margin of error 4%.
08 10 02 DL
Its all over. Chalk this one up for the NDP
The NTV/Telelink poll shows NDP candidate Jack Harris has opened up a big lead in St. John's East. Telelink polled 526 likely voters during the weekend. A majority of respondents, 52.3%, said they plan to vote for Jack Harris on election day. Liberal candidate Walter Noel is a distant second with 8.7%. In a statistical tie for second is Conservative candidate Craig Westcott, who has 8.2%. Undecided are 30.4% of respondents, the lowest undecided rate of the three Avalon peninsula ridings.
08 10 02 E. L. Smerl
Williams appeared on CTV Maritimes yesterday and held up under some tough questioning - he was very clear that the campaign is ‘anything but Conservative’ and not an endorsement of any other particular party. When pressed (by Steve Murphy), Williams said he personally did not support the Bloc but that he was not telling anyone in Quebec which non-Conservative candidate to vote for, leaving the implication clear that an NDP or Bloc vote was preferable to seeing Harper re-elected even with a minority gov't. As the Bloc is very soft on sovereignty now and has been a very good House of Commons contributor, this isn't controversial. Greens are left off Williams' agenda however as he has refused to come to Central Nova to help Elizabeth May. Fair enough as Green votes split the anti-Harper vote and have very little chance of electing anyone but her, so the national optics are lousy. And Jim Harris grossly insulted NL and all of Atlantic Canada so there has to be some payback for that some time.
What all this means to St. John's East is that Danny is under some extreme pressure not to appear to be endorsing Liberals everywhere and accordingly The Green Shift. He needs wiggle room for negotiations if Dion wins, and he'll achieve that best by helping one NDP candidate win.
That's the NDP's Harris here. He's a known quantity, a veteran. Those Conservatives unwilling to vote NDP for ideological reasons will find a safe haven in the Progressive Canadian candidate, who thus tends to both split the Liberal and Conservative vote and making all three of them lose. The Greens won't be anything like a factor here due to strategic voting and general antipathy to that party after its antics in 2005/6 (after which they lost the brilliant Lori-Ann Campbell to the Liberals).
08 10 02 volunteer for Jack
I'm one of the volunteers who are working for Jack Harris and we are all astounded at the support we are getting when we call people on the voters list or drop leaflets at the door. Everywhere I go, when people see the button I am wearing they give me a thumbs up and say ‘Jack's got it in the bag.’ It's not only statements of support we are hearing, we are also getting many (unsolicited) dismissive comments about the Liberal candidate. The Conservative candidate was a journalist (once a week for three minutes on CBC's Morning Show and ran a business newspaper) so he has to make himself better known and right now, nobody wants to know a Tory. I have spoken to dozens of people who always voted Tory and are now voting NDP. Many of them are emphatic when they say, ‘..and it's not because of Danny Williams. I made up my own mind.’
Jack might even get a majority of votes.
08 10 02 RC
Anyone who knows St. John's, and follows these things, knows Jack Harris has this in the bag. He could've run for the Greens and won this time around. Norm Doyle was very popular as a constituency politician, but that just means people were more hurt by his supposed betrayal of the province. Walter Noel showed just how serious he isn't by proposing a tunnel to Bell Island. And I'm not underestimating Shannon Tobin by ignoring him.
08 09 30 John
This time around, the Conservatives don't have incumbency advantage because they have a new candidate.
If the 2006 results are any guide, the Liberals are in a better position to capitalize here than the NDP.
That said, I think this one should stay in the TCTC category a bit longer. Watch what happens in the next week to ten days to get a better picture of which way the wind is blowing before calling this one.
08 09 29 Jurisprudent
Harris will go down in a tight race with Shannon Tobin. It dosent matter that Tobin has no political experience, he is a local who has been campaigning since 2 years ago. And the Progressive Canadian party will not be a foreign name on the ballot. PC party is a popular brand name in provincial politics.
08 09 25 gl
The NDP has a very strong candidate and I have absolutely no doubt that Jack Harris is going to win this thing. The fight for second ought to be interesting, though.
08 09 25 MadCaper
Based on everything that i have seen to this point in time i would be shocked if Jack Harris does not win this seat for the New Democrats on election night.The Liberal Candidate Walter Noel is old news with a weak leader,not a good mix for success.The Conservatives candidate,Craig Westcott,has an uphill battle to win when you consider the ABC factor and the strength of the N.D.P.candidate.these facts point to a New Democrat win on election night.
08 09 22
I would like to add that I think the Conservatives could manage to keep this one because of vote splitting on the left. With a good candidate from both the Liberals and the NDP, the Liberals will drain support from conservatives, and the NDP will drain alot of support from the Liberals, and if either the Liberals don't draw enough voters away from the conservative or the NDP don't manage to draw substantial support from the Liberal then I believe the Conservatives will be able to pull it off, but a squeaker for sure!
08 09 22 Let's Go Expos
I think this one ought to be thrown into the NDP category, statim.
Just watched the CPAC campaign politics episode from St. John's East: Craig Westcott's even alleges that Williams has thrown money and PC party workers towards Jack Harris' campaign. It will make a huge difference for the traditionally less-organized NFLD NDP.
08 09 22 Calev
This will be an interesting and early indicator on election night as to where the election is headed. If the Tories manage to win or keep it close despite the ABC campaign then I think it will be a very good night for the conservatives, and if they win I believe they would be heading into a small majority
08 09 22 Yes
Jack Harris has this one in the bag. With a positive reputation as a person and as a politician, it will be experience that comes out on top. Harris should have no trouble beating out newcomer candidates like Shannon Tobin of the unknown Progressive Canadian party, who has little to no experience in the political realm, minimal education, and few connections. This district should come in with Jack Harris (NDP) elected, followed by Walter Noel (Liberal), Craig Westcott (Conservative), followed by either Howard Storey of the Green Party or Shannon Tobin of the Progressive Canadians.
08 09 22 The Cantley Clipper
For a year, I lived in this riding. Mr. Harris had just resigned his seat at the time and the provincial by-election was going on to elect his replacement. I had learned that he was liked by his constituents, so much so they elected (then re-elected in 2007) his successor, NDP leader Lorraine Michael.
Harris definitely starts the campaign with a leg-up on two fronts: (A) His amiability, and (B) Premier Williams ‘Anybody But Conservative’ campaign. The ‘ABC’ campaign benefits the NDP primarily in this riding due to the fact that the Tories are not re-running with Norman Doyle, and the fact that Harris and Williams have a personal relationship dating back to their days as lawyers with the same St. John's law firm.
While Westcott seems to be a bit of a rabble-rouser and should keep the core Conservative vote intact, I don't see him winning. The Tories, though, will not completely melt down: I see them coming in either second or a very close third. I say this because, after seeing CPAC's ‘Campaign Politics’ program profiling the riding (including a former poli. sci. professor of mine, Dr. Temelini, who really knows his stuff), Liberal Walter Noel does not seem to be the kind of candidate who can pull off a win; he just doesn't seem to stack up against Harris.
To add to all of this, the riding (especially near the apartment I lived in anyway) seems to be a lower-middle-class riding, one that should cater to the NDP's demographics. I'm thinking Harris will get around 45% of the vote, and whoever comes second will garner around 30%, whoever that may be.
08 09 18 No
This riding will be a big suprise. It is going to Shannon Tobin of the Canadian Progessive Party (PC Party). Local news love him because he is a local, young and something new in a mediocre set of candidates. He gets nothing but good and positive coverage. In addition, their provincial MNA is a Progressive Conservative. The canadian progressive party is basicaly members of the federal PC party who were against the merger with the reform.
08 09 17 Wayne M.
Yes this riding going to the N.D.P. would represent a large swing from the previous election, but such swings are not uncommon after a popular incumbent MP declines to run, and a 'star' candidate from another party steps forward to run. It's not like the Conservatives' Canada-wide poll numbers have to go down 17 percent for this seat to be in play. The individual running is often much more important to voters than the party they are running for...And Jack Harris is much more popular in this riding than the people running for all of the other parties put together. Calling this riding for the Conservatives is nothing more than wishful thinking.
08 09 17 O. B. Won
This is the safest seat for the Conservatives in Newfoundland. It would take a 17.7% swing against the Conservatives for it to be at risk -- and only if the Liberals got 10.2% of that swing (which represents 2 out of every 3 voters in that swing). However, at present, the Liberals are garnering less than 1 out of every 3 of those swing voters (3.2% compared to 3.4% to the NDP and 4.1% to the Green Party).
08 09 16 JC
a year ago or So I predicted the Liberals had this. Little did I know that the NDP would pull out the one and only candidate that I believe can actually win them this seat. Craig Westcott is going to bite the dust this is between Noel and Harris and I predict Harris will take it.
08 09 16 DL
There is a big difference between Jack Harris running in St. John's East and Des McGrath running in an outport riding in 2004. McGrath was running against a Liberal incumbent in a riding where NDP support and organization was previously non-existent. In St. John's East, there is an NDP base of about 22% in the last two elections and on top of that there is no Tory incumbent and plus you have Danny Williams virtually endorsing Jack Harris and having his whole organization go to work. Jack Harris also represented part of this riding for many years provincially and he was federal MP for St. John's East in the late 80s. He should be an easy winner.
08 09 16 L.O.
This will be a very close three way race. Walter Noel is a popular maverick Liberal. Jack Harris is a competent and generally liked NDP candidate, still I think the Tories have a star candidate AND a maverick in Craig Westcott. Mr. Westcott has been one of the few columnists in the province who isn't afraid to stand up for what he believes in, even when the pressure comes from a very powerful and popular premier. Given all of that, and the fact that St. John's east is probably still historically the single strongest federal Tory area in the province, Mr. Westcott has a good shot of squeaking by with a victory. He's already implored Newfoundlanders in this riding to show that they aren't going to be ruled or ‘commanded’ to vote ABC and because of the tactics used by the ABC crew, there's only one way to show they aren't ruled. . .
08 09 16 Marco Ricci
As with the other St. John's riding, I notice there are several NDP predictions here. It's important to remember that just because the NDP have a high-profile candidate does not necessarily guarantee a victory. In 2004 a lot of people predicted that Des McGrath of the NDP would win in Random Burin St Georges and he finished well back of 1st place:
At the moment the NDP is running 3rd in the Maritimes so the Liberals probably have the advantage over the NDP in NFLD:
It may not be a good idea for the Liberals and the NDP to both run strong candidates - vote-splitting could allow the Conservative to prevail. This is a riding where the Liberals are probably best positioned to beat the Conservative, but if the NDP runs strongly here, they may allow the Conservative to win.
08 09 13
With Mr.Harris running in this riding with the backing of the provincial PC party this should be a NDP win. I feel that this riding should be changed from undecided to NDP. This riding will be close but NDP in the end for MR.Harris is well liked by the riding.
08 09 12 Ducey
This is going to the NDP. Look for Jack Harris to get the Tom Mulcair treatment if elected and be an integral part of the NDP party.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
This will be a remarkably easy win for the NDP in a province they don't do very well in. Jack Harris is popular in the area, and Danny Williams is in his corner. The Conservatives are toast here.
08 09 11 Nick J Boragina
Word is the provincial PC Party is unofficially backing the NDP candidate here - a former NDP MP and provincial leader. NDP win, especially given the ABH (anybody-but-harper) view of many on the island.
08 09 10 binriso
I have to agree the NDP will win here, but itll be close. Jacks star power and probable help coming from the Provincial PCs clinch the deal. The Liberals will probably be 2nd again and the CPC a relatively close third. Without Jack Harris though they wouldve likely lost. Just as long as Layton doesnt mess up too badly. The CPC are going to be swept off of Newfoundland and Labrador.
08 09 10 Brian A
Williams is pushing all Newfoundland Tories to not vote for the Federal Conservatives, and it's working. The Conservatives may shrug off the fact that no provincial members are willing to help them this time around, but it's a serious issue. That, combined with the fact that the popular former leader of the Newfoundland & Labrador NDP is running here means that we have an NDP pick-up.
08 09 09 Damian P.
I'm a Conservative, but many Newfoundland Tories will not be supporting the federal party this time around. Instead of staying home, I suspect many of them will vote for Jack Harris, who is very popular and well-respected even by people who don't share his politics. (Those who *do* still support Harper may decide to some strategic voting, too.) Even distaste with Harper won't be enough for disaffected Conservatives to vote Liberal, especially with Walter Noel as the candidate. (Some unease about the ‘Green Shift,’ and how it will affect suddenly oil-rich Newfoundland, won't help, either.)
Harris, interestingly, is a former legal partner of Danny Williams.
08 09 08 MC
Jack Harris announced his candidacy today in a packed room. This contrasts greatly with ‘maverick’ journalist Westcott in a room with a few dedicated social conservatives like Patrick Hanlon who don't care for ABC. Add the tired and scandal-ridden Liberal candidate Walter Noel and we have a clear path to victory for Mr Harris. I should also add that the most popular politician in the province (Danny Williams) is a good friend of Jack Harris and is likely to advocate for his candidacy.
08 08 27 MadCaper
This riding is almost a certainty for the New Democrats if Jack Harris decides to run for the N.D.P..I base my prediction on the fact that Jack has a wealth of experience, both Federal and Provincial, which will suit him well if he decides to take the plunge and also based on what i am hearing from people near to the situation. The Conservatives are dead in the water because of the Danny Williams syndrome and the Federal Liberals have been adversely affected by the complete implosion of the Provincial Liberal Party and are in complete disarray. This problem for the Liberals could easily spill over into the neighboring riding of St.John's South Mount Pearl. Should that situation transpire there is no tell what could happen in the rest of St.John's area. Very good chance of an N.D.P. gain.
08 08 25 Pierre from Qu?bec
Former NDP provincial leader and MLA, Jack Harris, is likely to be the NDP candidate here. Although it will not be easy to defeat the Conservatives, I think there are some factors for a NDP win in St. John East: 1) no incumbent 2) Conservatives are likely to be wiped out of the Atlantic provinces 3) Liberals are likely to be defeated in the general election and their leader has no charisma 4) The NDP has this time resources to waste in this ridding.
08 08 24 DL
I predict that Jack Harris will run for the NDP here. He and Danny Williams are good friends and were once law partners. Since Williams hates Harper so much and also doesn't want to strengthen the Liberals in any way, I would not be surprised if he quietly has his people work for Harris.
08 03 21 Paul R.
The Liberals made a huge mistake in selecting a corupt old school politician in Walter Noel as he spend his Provincial District allowance on Panties and perfume!
Jack Harris will make a federal election comeback for the NDP in the East and beat Noel hands down. As for the Conservatives they won't find a candidate until the deadline and it will only be a name on the ballot.
08 02 06 Al
Williams will get what he wants. Doyle would normally be expected to hold onto his seat, yes, but there's just no organization other than his own personal riding association to lean on, and Williams' media presence and hatred of Harper is profound. He even has a good sense of humour which is deadly to one's enemies in politics. With Williams on their side, federal Liberals will be out for the kill, and NDPers will recognize the value of becoming the only federal opposition party to the Liberals once there's no Reformative Party scum left on the rock.
There are no Greens in NL and never will be, that vote is a protest vote. It'll probably move to get rid of a Harperite too, and history won't save him.
08 02 02 M.R.R.
Until recently, I would have predicted a Liberal victory but there have been rumours that Jack Harris, well-liked former provincial leader of the NDP may run for the NDP. If this happens, than the seat is up in the air. If he doesn't run then it will go to the Liberals.
07 11 28 A.S.
Actually, speaking in strictly generic (and historical) terms, StJE should be *more* likely to stay Tory than StJS-MP--the only reason it'd appear otherwise is because Norm Doyle's retiring. Yeah, sure it may be a moot point against the Danny Williams grain, but...
07 10 30 M. Lunn
Considering how hated Harper is in Newfoundland & Labrador and the fact the popular Danny Williams will be openly campaigning against the Tories, I expect the Liberals to easily take this. The Tories may be gaining in other parts of the country and the Liberals may be in trouble elsewhere but in Atlantic Canada (asides from New Brunswick) the Liberals should increase their seat total and the Tories decrease.
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
I’m going to add my voice to the growing crowd on this one and call this for the Liberals. The Tories may have done very well in Newfoundland in the last two elections – compared to how well they did in Atlantic Canada as a whole. But much of that support was due to the provincial PC wing organizing in their favour. With Williams attacking Harper harder then he attacks his own Opposition Leader, you wont see the same level of support. CPC candidates will find themselves without an organization to run on, and this will kill them. The CPC is going to walk away from the next election with only a single Newfoundland seat, and this will not be it.
07 06 10 binriso
Loss of incumbent, budget shafting and a PC premier campaigning against the Conservatives in NFLD. Really not much more to say other than its going red. And that poll 17% for the CPC in NFLD, which probably means the Liberals are at 60-65, landslide numbers. Although the election will definitely be closer i predict a close Liberal win.
07 06 09 JC
Party is over here folks, The Conservatives have hit rock bottom with recent polling news that only 17% (No, that is not a typo) would support the party in the next election, This spells total wipeout for the Conservatives in this province.
07 07 20 RC
This is not a safe conservative seat. Norm Doyle has held it for over a decade because he is a very good constituency politician and times have been improving since 1997. It was, however, Liberal in 1993, Tory in 1998 and NDP in a by-election in 1985. If the Liberals run Paul Antle again and the Tories are short on candidates, this will be an easy pick for the liberals.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This riding is generally a safe conservative seat and normally it shouldn't even by in play, but with the budget shafting Newfoundland & Labrador and Danny Williams promising to campaign against the Tories, this could potentially go Liberal.
07 03 29 JC
Danny Williams ranting over the Conservatives broken promise regarding the Equalization formula is going to turn Newfoundland and Labrador completely red.
07 03 28 Dr Bear and Prof Ape
Doyle isn't running again. Couple that with Danny William's recent (and possibly presistant) rant about Harper renegging on the Atlantic Accord and we may see this swinging to the Liberals.
07 03 25 Ancastarian
Norman Doyle, a former P.C. MP who played a key role in merging the two parties, should hold this one. While many Maritimers feel ignored by the party, long time stalwarts like Doyle should not have trouble staying elected.

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