Prediction Changed
4:23 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Eyking, Mark
Harker, Collin
New Democratic
McKay, Wayne
Rudderham, Kristen

Hon. Mark Eyking

2006 Result:
Mark Eyking **
John Hugh Edwards
Howie MacDonald
Chris Milburn

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 Cape Breton Voter
Things are closer here than anyone would have expected. And no one knows what will happen Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised with any of the three main candidtaes winning. When was the last time that could be said?
Mark Eyking, Liberal:
PRO:Definite edge to him. Big support across the riding. A warm man with no enemies. His to lose.
CON: Tepid campaign has taken voters for granted, no one thought there was a threat. There is. Underestimated the others and is coming across as ineffective compared to the energy of the other campaigns. Voters may see this as a weakness.
Kristen Rudderham, Conservative:
PRO: Underdog, but has run the best campaign, mostly because of an infusion of money and a group of dissatisfied Liberals. Has tapped into Liberals who think Eyking is weak. If Harper seems destined to win, she could pull it out.
CON: Surprisingly weak debate performance stunted her momentum. At turns, she seemed too aggressive, which doesn't work in a quiet riding. Too weak a base for the Conservatives in this riding, just too big a mountain to climb. She would have to double their last vote to win. Too big a hole to climb out of.
Wayne Mckay, NDP:
PRO: Best candidate, hands down. Passionate, smart, community minded. Has grassroots support all across the riding. Clearly won the debate, people love him on the doorstep and on the street. Charismatic and bright.Ran a very positive,strategic and smart campaign including online, with emails and through facebook which kept a buzz going the last month.
CON: Before the campaign he had no recognition. Nobody knew him. Campaign started too late. It has energy, but because of the late start will probably be handicapped.
It is Eyking's to lose, but the possible outcomes are:
1. Eyking loses a considerable amount of votes from the previous election. Wins, but with a much reduced plurality.
LIB 17,000-NDP 13,000-CON 10,000
2. Eyking's vote is cut by 7-8 thousand votes and Rudderham wins by dramatically turning around area support.
CON 14,000- NDP 13,000- LIB 13,000
3. Eyking's vote is cut by 4,000. Rudderham increases the Tory vote, and McKay comes up the middle and wins a nail biter.
NDP 16,001 (approx)- LIB 16,000- CON 8,000
Which one of these possibilities will happen? It is anyone's guess. Great to see a race for a change.
08 10 10 Vote ABC Sydney-Victoria
This riding will most definitely stay red! There has been complaints via Letters to The Editor in the local paper about Rudderhams tactics during this campaign(stealing websites as well as using bad signs) and after all this she goes out and changes her signs from the attacks about oil prices that dont exist to the phrase ‘Remember when CB had a seat in government?’ Something tells me that the Liberal Party of Canada has won the riding ever since 2000 even thought they are on the opposition side of the house they are still there making it know what we want! As for the other two candidates im noticing an unfirmiliar lack of NDP signs around the area this year in comparison to previous campaigns and as for the Green party it was just at the start of this previous week that i actually say signs with the candidates name on them. Im thinking the Liberals will take a vast majority of the riding followed by the CPC and NDP in a close race for 2nd and lastly the GPC
08 10 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Since Rudderham appears to be doing so well on the ground, why is it the poll numbers we've seen indicate 45% for the Liberals, 33% for the NDP, 12% gor the CPC and 10% for the Greens? Neither of us have ever set foot in this riding, let alone visited it during this election, so we are relying on the empirical data available to us (poll numbers, past results, etc). Can anyone (preferably someone non-partisan and down to earth realistic) provide some insight to this discrepancy?
08 10 05 Derek
I agree with a lot of what DavidM is saying. Its a really weird race. Rudderham is credible but the Harper thing must be driving her crazy. I toured the riding this weekend and the visual sign split is insane. This is how I see it breaking down:
Down North: Rudderham and Eyking are head to head
Signs: Goes to Rudderham by far
Englishtown: Eyking all the way
Signs: Eyking on every house
Baddeck: Rudderham and Eyking are head to head
Signs: Rudderham by 50 to 1 (no BS, you have to see it)
Bouladrie: Rudderham and Eyking (be surprised if Rudderham can pull the vote)
Signs: Split (again very weird considering its Marks home)
Florence: Rudderham and Eyking
Signs and visible support: Eyking by 2 -1
Sydney Mines: Rudderham and Eyking head to head
Signs and visible support: Rudderham by 5 to 1
North Sydney: Rudderham and Eyking head to head
Signs and visible support: Rudderham by 3 to 1
WestMount: Rudderham and Eyking
Signs and visible support: hard to read
Coxheath/Cantley Village: Rudderham and Eyking
Signs and visible support: Coxheath rd to Rudderham by 4 to 1, Cantley does not have a Liberal or NDP sign in it, all Rudderham.
Membertou: Mackay
Signs and visible support: Mackay all the way, not one other sign
Alexander st and Newlands: Rudderham or Eyking then MacKay
Signs and visible support: Not much NDP and a pretty even split amonst the grits and tories
South End: (cottage, cromarty etc) Rudderham and Eyking then Mackay
Signs and visible support: split grit tory and a few Dipper
Ashby: Eyking
Signs and visible support: Eyking in the Liberal heart by far 10-1, lots of Rudderham in upper ashby and prince, a few NDP
Pier: MacKay and Eyking
Signs and visible support: lots of NDP and eyking a sparse amount of Rudderham
Newaterford: Mackay Eyking, not a chance for Rudderham
Signs and visible support: A lot of NDP and a decent amount Eyking.
I think that pretty much sums this thing up (sorry if I missed anywhere). This riding is turning into a real horse race. there is little doubt that the Liberal vote is coming way down. Ms Rudderhams campaign (by far the most organized) may hand this riding to the NDP or it may come in very very tight on election night.
Please post your thoughts in response. I am honestly and sincerley intrigued. I think everyone can agree that this riding is in play and I never, ever, in a million years, would have thought that a man who took 20,000 votes in the last election may be under threat. I also never thought that a camp that took 7000 votes in the last election could stir this thing up so much.
08 10 01 DavidM
I have lived in this riding for many years, and like others, I figured it would be an easy hold for the Liberals. Now I'm not so sure. While there is lots of support for Mr. Eyking, both the NDP and Conservatives seem to be running very strong campaigns, and support for both appears to be growing. The Conservative candidate has been on the ground campaigning for well over a year now and seems to be doing very well in the areas represented provincially by PC MLA's Cecil Clarke and Keith Bain, and both are said to be working hard on Kristen Rudderham's campaign. With the Conservatives headed for victory nationally, Ruderham should get a bump in support, because she can argue that voting for her is the only way the riding could end up on the side of government. The NDP campaign was late getting started, but is in full swing now with more and more signs appearing each day, especially so in Cape Breton Nova, which is represented by NDP MLA Gordie Gosse. Also, a large portion of Frank Corbett's provincial seat is also in this riding, which is a plus for the campaign. The deciding factor in the race could come down to the Sydney area, which has been a Liberal stronghold for decades, and if either the Conservatives or NDP are to challenge Eyking, they will have to cut into his support there. Its obvious that the way a person votes provincially, is not a guarantee that they will also vote that way federally, because so many different factors are at play, but if this could be used as some sort of measuring stick, the 2006 election results in this riding showed the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP withing a few hundred votes of each other. Should be an interesting two weeks, but as of today, my prediction is that a three way race is developing.
08 09 29 JohnnyT
I have to dispute the last two postings in regards to the Rudderham campaign..There is no talk at all about her on the streets, and there are very few blue signs popping up. Its safe to say, this seat is staying Liberal, while the Conservatives will be lucky to receive 10-15% of the vote. If the Conservatives were serious about this riding, they would have ran a half decent candidate, instead they handed the seat in Eyking once again.
08 09 25 CMR
A month ago, I was sure this was a landslide re-election for Mark Eyking, and while I believe he's still headed for victory, it could end up being a lot closer than anyone would have thought when the election was called. Over the past few days, I have noticed Conservative signs popping up in places where Liberal red signs have dominated in the past. Kristen Rudderham maybe the best candidate the Conservatives have run federally in Cape Breton in many years, but with less than three weeks to go, I doubt she could pass Eyking, but a strong second place showing is not out of the question.
08 09 22 Mick
Ok, I cant believe I am about to do this. I am changing my prediction from yesterday. I sat in a room tonight where almost everyone talked about Ms. Rudderham. The numbers don?t lie, and I?m still not sure she can swing what?s needed, but there is too much talk out there.
I also read the News Paper blogs tonight and am shocked at the writing war going on. While some are purely partisan, I?ve never seen this much engagement in the riding. The Grits are firing at her hard and it appears for good reason (she's got chatter on the go).
08 09 21 Mick
Ok, I never would have think it but there seems to be an actual race here. There is no question to anyone watching that Rudderham is strong and her team very very organized. They are taking some risky approaches to this race like the controversy (ran on national news last night and front page of the Chronicle Herald yesterday) and time will tell if it pays off or backfires.
All this into account Im not so sure that the Conservatives will be able to swing enough votes. Still its nice to see someone going hard. Eykings campaign is up and running now and one can tell that they are starting to understand that they have to hustle to own there vote this time.
08 09 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Saw Ms Rudderham on the news last night. Someone affiliated with her about the domain name and linked it to her site. When Mr. Eyeking said it was a dirty tactic, Ms Rudderham condoned the action and said Mr. Eyeking should have registered it long ago. Please note that IS his site, so it's not like he isn't online. Now how many people are going to be impressed by Ms Rudderham's tactic? The hard core CPC supporters will say ‘good on her’ but most others will not be impressed. This includes the soft CPC supporters who are still somewhat unsure of the whole Harper team. It smacks of a cheap shot and with the CPC looking a little mean and callous (can we say Ritz?) lately it certainly won't be helping her.
08 09 18 The Cantley Clipper
I live in this riding, and while I respect Bear and Ape's insight into electoral trends, I disagree about the extent of anti-Conservative sentiment in some areas of Nova Scotia. Sure, Bill Casey will be re-elected and the token Harper-Conservative will likely finish third or lower in his riding. But here in Cape Breton, things seem to be heading in a different direction.
First, Kristen Rudderham had signs out the night before the election call and her headquarters open within days. Up until last week, Mark Eyking had no signs and seemed to have been asleep at the wheel as far as having a campaign organization in place. The NDP, who held this riding not so long ago, have only just nominated a candidate, have no signs, and if they have a campaign office, it certainly isn't very visible. The Greens, who have just nominated a candidate as well, won't fare much better than last time, especially with Elizabeth May running on the mainland (she may have had a real chance in this riding, with her work on the tar ponds and her unwaivering loyalty to the affected families).
Rudderham has come out of the gates quickly, while the Liberals seemed to have scrambled to gain their feet in this race. While the Conservatives seem to be making a strong push in this riding, as Bear said, there is a huge vote gap and an NDP second-place finish to overcome if they want to take this riding. This riding has been Eyking's for the past eight years (for what reason, I do not know!), and while I see no reason as to why it shouldn't be his once again, Kristen Rudderham is an organized, intelligent candidate... whereas the previous Tory was, to put it nicely, a boob.
TCTC with a light Liberal red hue is my call right now; I'll have to wait to see how this campaign unfurls before I can solidify a prediction.
08 09 16 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Another delusional prediction. Look the CPC are doing well everywhere except Atlantic Canada. Liberals are holding their own out east. Need I remind you of the Atlantic Accords? Nova Scotians will not be flocking to the CPC in any large numbers and certianly not enough to overcome a 13K gap.
08 09 14 LOloyd
I think that the conservatives have a very strong candidate in this election. Kristen Rudderham will give Mark Eyking a tough fight. I really think she will clean up in rural Cape Breton and in Cecil Clarke’s provincial riding of North Sydney and Sydney Mines. she will also do very well in the Whitney pier area of Sydney because her father has a well known business there and she was born and raised in the Sydney area.
08 09 10 Caper88
Running for the Liberals once again is Mark Eyking and the Conservative Candidate is Kristen Rudderham.
08 08 25 MadCaper
This seat at the present time is still advantage Liberal, but, the Conservative candidate is working hard to try and cut into the lead of the incumbent. The N.D.P. and Greens have yet to nominate a candidate, but, should they field strong candidates this riding could get interesting when you consider the weakness of the present Liberal Leader. For now it is still a liberal hold.
08 06 30 CMR
I have to dispute the entry from a couple of posts ago claiming this riding voted NDP 'religiously' back in the 1970's and 80's. Yes, a very small portion of this riding (New Waterford) was part of the Cape Breton East-Richmond riding that twice elected an NDP member in the 1970's, but most of this riding came from the Cape Breton-The Sydneys riding which was a Conservative stronghold for many years, followed by a long period as a Liberal stronghold until the demise of the riding in 1997. So, it was nowhere near an NDP stronghold in the 70's and 80's. That being said, Peter Mancini's win for the NDP in 1997, does give the NDP some hope in the riding, but right now the Liberals remain strong and poised to keep this seat. The one thing that could help the NDP, is that the Conservatives appear to have nominated a stronger candidate than they have had in years, and while she won't win, she should pick up a much higher vote than in the past. If that happens, and the Liberls lose votes as a result, then there is the posibility of the NDP coming up the middle and taking the seat, but as of right now, I would say Mark Eyeking is easily headed to victory.
08 02 24 A.S.
The more vulnerable of the two Cape Breton Liberal seats, at least for having a clearer opposition force in the NDP (and unlike next door, the Grit vote actually dipped below 50% here in 2006). Provincially speaking, a problem here is that Cape Breton's been the most/last consistent Liberal stronghold since the provincial Grits started getting caught between the NDP/PC pincers a decade ago (a reverse of the case elsewhere, where blue-collar backwaters of economic collapse might more likely be the the last *NDP* strongholds). Thus, despite a superficial super-compatability, it'd need extra push and effort and some big anti-Liberal/NDP-favouring outside trending, or a 1997-style perfect storm, for the NDP to actually make that step beyond strong second here. But as long as the Dion Liberals are perceived as ‘weak’, it's still doable...
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
This used to be a strong NDP riding that voted NDP religiously… That was, back in the 1980’s and 1970’s. While the NDP won here in 1997, that was, as I said in a post in another riding, due to a very special set of circumstances that don’t exist this time around. The Liberals will hold this riding.
07 05 09 Efrem
Actually, the Liberals didn't clean up on Cape Breton last provincial election; of the five urban CB ridings, the Liberals took two seats, the NDP two and the PC's one (the more rural ones went three PC to one Liberal).
Not that this matters much federally; unless something strange happens (like, say, another Liberal meltdown in Nova Scotia) Sydney-Victoria (which reminds me a bit of Gordon Brown's Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath fiefdom) stays Liberal.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
This part of Nova Scotia is Liberal-leaning to a fault. Even when the provincial Liberals bombed in the rest of the province, they cleaned up in Cape Breton.
07 03 23 Daniel
Given the Liberals' relatively strong support in Atlantic Canada, in addition to the fact that Eyking finished 9,000 votes ahead of his nearest competitor in the last election, and I'm quite sure that Sydney-Victoria will easily be returned to the Liberal fold.

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