Prediction Changed
11:48 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Aubin, Michelle
Dubé, Jean Guy
New Democratic
Godin, Yvon
Robichaud, Odette

Yvon Godin

2006 Result:
Yvon Godin **
Marcelle Mersereau
Serge Savoie
Philippe Rousselle
Eric Landry
Ulric DeGrâce

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 Janey
Re the Miramichi polls in this riding - Yvon Godin and several supporters went to court to change that. They won ad now some of those Miramichi polls that did not belong there are back in Miramichi. The strangest alignment is that some of the Miramchi polls are now from Restiguche!!! Makes no sense since these people are divided by an entire riding from their MP and while Miramichi is a great place (my grandmother was born and grew up there), it really is unique and the only commonality between those East Restigouche polls and the Miramichi (I still say it that way, it is all I heard growing up and even Miramichee-ers think of it that way, lol)is their Irish Catholic roots which also translates to Liberal votes , in this part of NB anyway. (I DO now there is that one parish in Hfx that is Irish Catholic and Conservative but they are an aberration - kidding!, lol). Like everywhere else, religion plays much less a role in politics now unless you are my grandparents' generation and most of them are 90 plus or not gone to the great political place in he sky.
08 09 15 Maritimer
A solid win here, for a solid MP. Godin has proven to be a real fighter for the north shore, and for working people everywhere. I say he get's over 50%.
08 05 21 binriso
I highly doubt that if Godin was the leader of the provincial NDP that they would win more than anyone vs McKenna (COR actually won 8 seats in 1991 against him after the 1987 sweep). In order for the NDP to win more than 8 seats in the province, there would have to be a massive NDP swing in the Acadian/Miramichi ridings where Godins riding is federally and where some of their other strong ridings are (Strong= above 10% for the provincial NDP). Pretty unlikely although he would probably win his own seat, there are a ton of safe Liberal seats in the area and some strong PC ones too. At least he could?ve given representation to another party in the legislature, something I dont know that that the NDP will be able to do for awhile. Anyways Godin is safe federally for awhile yet.
08 02 24 A.S.
As I've mentioned in the past, Godin's effectively the leader and sole representative of the Bloc Acadien while wearing (and wearing quite well, mind you) a handy NDP banner of convenience. Or, convenience, schmonvenience; were he to make the provincial-leadership jump, he could well cinch more seats for the NDP than *any* party managed opposite Frank McKenna...
07 09 09 Nick J Boragina
Godin is a very popular local MP. Comments about his defeating of ‘star candidates’ are right on the money. This is a person you cant count out for any reason. While he might win his seat if he were to run provincially, he will win his seat so long as he continues to run federally. He is an anachronism, out of place and perhaps time. Without him the NDP probably would not manage more then 20% in this riding, but with him in place, this riding is a lock. NDP victory, no doubt about it.
07 06 06 binriso
Well I doubt Godin will attempt to run for the provincial party, since it is in shambles right now and got only 5% last election although if he did that wouldnt be too bad since the conservatives are pretty much a non-factor here the seat would go Liberal or NDP. Godin'll win easily in Acadie-Bathurst but once he leaves the riding will go Liberal most likely.
NDP 45
LIB 32
CON 20
07 04 06 J.F. Breton
Godin est un excellent député. Les citoyens d'Acadie-Bathurst vont voter pour l'homme, y compris une quantité assez grande de libéraux qui préféreront un député néo-démocrate à un député conservateur qui pourrait se faufiler par division du vote. Victoire NPD.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
As long as Yvon Godin is the NDP candidate he should hold this is he has easily beaten whoever the Liberals threw at him. However, once he steps down, I expect this to return to the Liberal fold as the NDP base is quite weak here, most are personal Godin votes.
07 03 31 td
Godin, the current NDP MP in this riding, has been rumored to be seeking the New Brunswick NDP leadership, I don't think he will, he'll come back and run federally again and win the seat again.
07 03 24 Daniel
If Yvon Godin could defeat stars like Doug Young and Marcelle Mersereau, he can take whatever the Liberals throw at him. The only NDP seat in NB, and it will remain so after the next election.

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