Prediction Changed
10:31 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Ashfield, Keith
Babineau, Mary Lou
Innes, David
Canadian Action
Kelly, Ben
New Democratic
Travis, Jesse

Hon. Andy Scott

2006 Result:
Andy Scott **
Pat Lynch
John Carty
Philip Duchastel
David Raymond Amos

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 binriso
Both party leaders were here. I only got to see Harpers thing on TV, funny thing Keith was nowhere to be seen, or at least he wasnt on the televised part that I saw. Thats kind of odd id think but the Liberals are probably going to win anyways.
08 10 10 Mr. Mac
By the slightest of margins, I am predicting a Liberal victory in Fredericton. These are the main factors which are contributing to my decision:
- A very weak NDP candidate who will not get anywhere near 10,000 vote like last time. He will bleed votes to Green and some Liberals and end up around 5,000 votes.
- An extremely smart electorate who understand strategic voting and will try to follow it.
- The fact that Stephen Harper is still not well liked in Atlantic Canada. After he called NB uncultured a few years back, people still have big memories.
- Any public forum/debate have seen Ashfield forced to always be on the defensive and has never been clear with his policy.
If I were to predict the voting patterns, I would say 16,500 for the Liberals, 15,000 for the Cons, 5,000 each for the Greens and NDP.
There you have a solid prediction. I'm not going to lie, I don't want either party to win, but I feel as though this is the current situation in Fredericton.
08 10 09 binriso
Oddly enough, Im not even sure anymore if the Liberals are going to win. Weve only had Keith Ashfield come around our neighborhood, no one else has come. A couple pieces of campaign literature from the LIBS and CPC nothing from the rest. About the same amount of signs for the Liberals and the CPC, with a surprisingly high number of Green signs(though not as much as the other 2 parties and few on private property), not many NDP signs(less than the Greens it seems). Ive met both main candidates, and they both seem relatively friendly and likeable people, probably both making good representatives.
Funny thing about the other parties, the only one ive met is Ben Kelly, the CAP candidate. I honestly am not sure what the NDP candidate looks like other than a single picture in the newspaper and ive only seen the Green candidate on a couple signs.
First of all I can say that Kelly will probably win a couple hundred votes or so, and if people want its a good place to park a protest vote(since the Greens are more of a mainstream party this election than a protest party) since his candidacy is pretty independent in comparison to the rest of the candidates(who have to worry more about the party line and party loyalty).
The Greens may cut fairly deeply into the Liberal and NDP vote here, or at least much more than the one-point-something percent they got last time. Id expect them to at least triple their vote to around 5-6% and probably a bit more than that even. The fact that they have a university professor, Babineau running for them as well means they will probably do fairly well in the university polls(even though turnout will be low, theyll cut into some Liberal/NDP strength) as well as progressive voters in the riding.
The NDP are obviously going to lose some votes, and probably a few thousand but they are up in the polls from 06, so they could recoup some of their losses just based on the national trend. Jesse Travis said that his party was also focused on taking votes from the CPC when he was on CBC being interviewed, which I found a little surprising, but it makes sense with the national campaign since Layton is trying to present himself as the only alternative to Harper (criticizing Dion and the Liberal inaction and leadership and the fact that the party abstained from voting on 50 different bills or something like that). That said itll probably be hard for them to get much higher than 16-17% in my opinion anyways with the stronger Green challenge and the strategic voting that might occur to block the CPC.
The CPC have the strongest candidate, I dont dispute that. 10 years in the provincial legislature as well as being a minister for part of that time certainly gives him more name recognition than every other candidate. Thing is though, he could get derailed by the weaker NDP candidate (weaker than Carty anyways) that will bleed some support to the Liberals. Unknown how much that support will be, but Keiths experience and likeability could win him the day nonetheless. But he will also have to deal with the attacks on Harper that every other party is flinging at him and locally to CPC candidates about a hidden CPC agenda, cozyness with Bush etc...
Finally the Liberals have a relatively good candidate here in Innes, not quite as experienced as Ashfield but a fair bit of community involvement. He will benefit near the end, since the polls are showing a CPC decline and the potential for strategic voting is once again possible to block a Harper majority(though seems unlikelier by the day). Frankly though he will probably suffer from the lack of action taken by the Liberals in the last parliament and Dions leadership and maybe even from the Green shift + Carbon Tax. Also David Innes is more of a private figure in the community in comparison to Keith Ashfield who served in a more public position of an MLA.
If that wasnt enough, theres also a provincial by-election campaign thats going on in Keiths old riding in New Maryland Sunbury West(a small part of the federal riding 10% or so). Those signs are up for Jack Carr for the PCs and the Liberal whose name I cant remember(some woman from the more rural part of the riding), which could actually confuse some people (people like us who post on these forums are far less numerous than people who could not give a care about politics or know anything about it).
Weve actually already got some campaign material from Jack Carr the PC candidate, pretty much slandering the provincial Liberals in parts in saying the provincial Liberals will institute a second carbon tax just like their federal cousins(as far as provincial Liberal governments the only ones associated with the Federal party is NB and PEI), and the usually conservative line about lower taxes is better for the economy and so on... it isnt very effective in my opinion. It will actually be a race in the provincial riding since Keith only won by about 10% or so and the NDP isnt running a candidate as of yet(they only get 4-5% here anyways but still) might be pretty close.
Anyways this race will probably come down to who can get their vote out better. Frankly I know the Liberals are somewhat organized in this regard, since I know some of the volunteers around the city that will be helping to get the vote out for the Liberals. I dont know so much about the CPC but Id have to think theyd also be somewhat organized.
Its a coin-flip Id say its almost a 50-50 tossup actually.
The slightest of edges to the Liberal party(so well say 51% for David Innes to win and 49% for Keith Ashfield to win) with both the CPC and Liberals around the 40% mark with the NDP around 15% and the Greens about 6% and the CAP getting a few votes too.
08 10 09 JaneyC
Actually, I only know Keith Ashfield here and he is a good person but many who know the Liberal guy also speak highly of him. Ashfield has tradition and name recognition on his side and the Liberals have And Scott and a good organization! I am informed that the NDP is too badly organized to win and they know it. Apparently, some are upset that the NDP candidate is anti choice and refuses to sing from the NDP policy book. That stand will hurt him even among the party's typical voters.
08 10 09 Political Junkie
It seems odd that the riding that encompasses my hometown should be so difficult to call, but this election has had some wildcards to consider: the retirement of Andy Scott, Fredericton's only Liberal MP since Diefenbaker was Prime Minister, a weakened NDP organization, and a stronger Green candidate. That being said, I'm calling this one for the Liberals. Not by much, perhaps only 1,000 votes or so, but a Liberal victory nonetheless.
As someone who was involved in the local NDP between 2000 and 2006 (with the exception of a year spent in B.C.), I never heard the name of the NDP candidate mentioned once. This will actually help the NDP, as the candidate will not be regarded as an old face that the local NDP always hauls out when no one else can be found. Therefore, I think the NDP vote will not collapse like I originally predicted. However, they will still bleed some votes to the Greens and to the Liberals. The core of NDP support in Fredericton is not blue collar or working class but academic and professional (just look at the polls that the NDP won in 2006). These voters seem to be convinced that strategic voting is a good idea moreso than other NDP supporters, and just enough will gravitate to the Liberals to stop a Tory victory. The Greens could break the 10% mark, and I will predict that their best result in New Brunswick will be in Fredericton. Where their increased vote comes from will be the real question.
As for those who refer to the CRA poll in the Telegraph-Journal putting the Conservatives at 44% in New Brunswick, I offer these insights. First, as others have pointed out, one-third of voters are undecided. Second, I imagine that a good portion of that increased Conservative vote is in Tobique-Mactaquac, where I am sure that a lot of votes that went for Liberal Andy Savoy have moved to the Conservative incumbent, Mike Allen. This measn that Allen will win by a greater margin than he did in 2006, but it doesn't grant another seat to the Conservatives. Fredericton just isn't the sort of riding that will respond to a typical Harper Conservative candidate. Now if Brian MacDonald had won the Conservative nomination, I'd be calling this one differently.
All in all, a slim Liberal victory.
08 10 08 Mr. Mac
This one is still too close to call but has been made more interesting after the forum and televised debate this week. As said in the daily gleaner, Ashfield needed a bulletproof vest to fend off all of the attacks. One of the things that was remarkable though is how many people are still undecided in the riding. Al, the poll from the telegraph is extremely leading as it even says ?Nearly one-third of voters are still undecided.? I would say that this could conceivably come back to hurt the Conservatives, scaring voters to the Liberals in hopes of avoiding a Harper majority. The one thing apparent from last night's debate, no one wants a Conservative Majority.
I will post my prediction of this riding this weekend.
08 10 07 Al
According to the most recent polls for New Brunswick (see: ) The CPC is 10% points ahead of the Liberals. At these numbers, seats such as Fredericton that were close last time will shift to the CPC.
08 10 06 Mr. Mac
One thing I am really starting to hear is how this is not a Conservative riding, but a Tory riding. This is a riding which has been filled with Red Tories since the Diefenbaker era and then with Andy Scott. Folks, this seat could actually stay Liberal (to the shock of Harper). This university riding could swing largely around the election.
I am not ready to make a prediction, but I think you can see where my thoughts are progressing.
08 10 03 R.O.
Although this has been a solid liberal riding from 93 till now all those years it was held by well known liberal mp Andy Scott. With his exit from federal politics there is the potential for this riding to go conservative. They seem to have a strong candidate running in Keith Ashfield and he has a successful background in provincial politics as well. Stephen Harper also visited this riding early in the campaign a clear sign he feels its winnable. The liberals are running a new Candidate David Innes who has not run before and Dion on the other hand has been no where to be seen in Fredericton this election. a sign he either feels the seat is going to stay liberal anyways or they’d prefer to run a more local campaign instead. But with liberal numbers so low and one poll today put them at only 24 % nationwide well behind the conservatives. Its clear any vulnerable liberal riding like this one could fall and will more than likely fall in the end.
08 09 19 DS
This riding is a battleground. Outgoing MP Andy Scott won thanks to the '93 sweep, vote-splitting on the right in '97 and '00, weak candidates from the united Conservative party in '04 and '06, the many advantages of incumbency - and by being an excellent constituency MP, the previous poster's comments notwithstanding. This time around, Liberal David Innes does not have most of these things, while Conservative Keith Ashfield is a strong candidate whose provincial experience may well translate to incumbent-level support in a large portion of the riding. All that said, I see Fredericton staying Liberal. Innes has most of Scott's campaign team working for him, and they know how to win. The NDP vote will likely shrink from the level of the past two elections, as the popular John Carty is not running again. I expect some of that vote will shift to the Greens, but more to the Liberals. Finally, Ashfield will have a hard time overcoming lingering regional fears about a Stephen Harper majority. Bottom line: close race, but a win for Innes and the Liberals.
08 09 17 B. Smith
I think Ashfield and the Conservatives will take it. There is something to be said for being able to win, when most of your colleagues go down in defeat. Ashfield withstood the provincial red tide, leaving one to assume that he is a good constituency MLA, which apparently counts for a lot anywhere. (When I lived in Fredericton, I always heard that Andy Scott was a great constituency own personal experience proved that he was not).
Others have stated that the bleeding NDP vote here will go to the Liberals, I think some of it will and but most of it won't. As someone who has voted NDP in the past, I would not consider parking my vote with the Liberals, perhaps even if it meant stopping the minions of the calgary school. There is a considerable right wing Conservative vote in Fredericton, akin to the vote further up the St. John River Valley. The Alliance was very competitive in both ridings, as were the Tories. Ashfield will poll well in the rural sections of the riding, as well as the more monied sections west and south of downtown. He will also poll well on the northside, the former stomping grounds of Ed Allen.
The Conservative vote is there, the question is will they do the work necessary to get it to the polls. With Scott gone, the Conservatives will take, but it won't be a cake walk.
08 09 15 FBer
Keith Ashfield seems to be very well organized and is going to give David Innes a strong run. In Fredericton-proper David is certainly winning the sign war but in more rural parts of the region, in particular the Minto/Chipman area where Andy Scott has always had a strong showing, Ashfield is winning the lawn-sign war.
08 09 11 Mr. Mac
David Innes is definitely winning the sign war so far, but again that means nothing. There has still been no mention of an NDP candidate. This should really worry the Conservatives because the Libs and Green would split the vote. There were almost 10,000 NDP votes last time; there won't be half that many this time around.
08 09 08 Mr. Mac
David Innes is a fantastic community enthusiast. I have met him a couple of times and he seems like an honest and nice person. However, I'm not sure how this will play out in the current situation in Fredericton. Former MP Andy Scott was an excellent community man but was always extremely vocal in his support and policy ways. Andy is and always will be beloved in Fredericton but David Innes needs to step out of his shadow and prove himself.
Keith Ashfield is one of the best known politicians in the local area. He is well respected and should do quite well. I like to compare him to Greg Thompson in his stability and local popularity. If the election were today, Keith would win in a landslide, but it is not and he won't. If he goes along with the Conservative Party mantra, he could lose a crutial seat. Stephen Harper is looked upon with a skeptical eye in this neighborhood and the best thing he could do is stay away and allow Keith to run his own (grassroots) campaign.
As for the other candidates, the only NDPer with a chance in NB is Yvon Godin and he will win again with ease. Everyone else should have a copy of their resume on hand when campaigning.
Mary Lou Babineau is well respected among the academic community and should fair somewhat well. I can see her taking over the 3rd spot in this riding now that John Carty is no longer the NDP candidate.
If the election were today, this riding would be Conservative. But, I forsee a long battle ahead. Stay tuned.
08 08 28 Political Junkie
I usually don't respond to other posts on here, but I've noticed that Mad Caper is currently predicting several NDP victories (six in Nova Scotia alone) or second place finishes throughout Atlantic Canada, so I must assume that some partisan promotion and/or wishful thinking is at play. On the NDP in Fredericton, I can offer this: It barely exists. There is no way that a candidate (who will be nominated at the last minute) will hold onto John Carty's vote let alone increase it. There is a definite lack of organization and talent in the NDP ranks in Fredericton. There is no one who would command the sort of competence and respect that John Carty did. Moreover, as I've pointed out before, he is the NDP's Atlantic organizer, meanign that he will hardly be involved in the local campaign beyond finding a candidate. The best the NDP can hope for is to hold on to 15%, mainly from the automatic-NDP voters among local academics and professional protesters. A 10% showing is more likely, the real question being how the fleeing NDP vote distributes itself (though it will go to all three other parties). I think the real fight for the NDP here couldbe to hold on to third place against the Greens, who will not be as well financed as the NDP (a lot of long-time New Democrats here will write cheques for the party at election time but do little else), but who will likely be tied with the Greens in volunteers and lack a candidate with the visibility and local presence as Mary Lou Babineau.
08 08 25 MadCaper
From my contacts in the Fredericton area i am told tat this is still a liberal hold for the present time, but, there is a very good chance that the Conservatives could take a run at this seat as the safety of this seat was built mostly on the personal popularity of Andy Scott. With Scott out of the picture at least as a candidate this opens up this seat to an upset. This of course will depend on how Kieth Ashfield is accepted by the electorate in Fredericton. The Greens have a very credible candidate in Mary Lou Babineau a Spanish Professor at S.T.U. who could cut into the vote of all three main line parties. The N.D.P. has yet to nominate a candidate, but, the one thing that can be said for sure is that although John Carty is not the candidate this time around i am sure that he will be as heavily involved in the campaign as he can possibly be and that will help to hold the N.D.P. vote somewhat steady and depending on who they nominate as a candidate may help to increase their vote. For now i will say David Innis is safe with the unknown factor being the impact of the Greens.
08 03 16 Political Junkie
As I'll be leaving Fredericton in four weeks, I'd guess I'd offer my final thoughts on the political situation in the riding as it now stands. I'll add that A.S.'s assessment of Fredericton is a very good one, in that the strength of the old PC Party here was due to a base of Maritime Red Toryism, not ideological right-wing conservatism.
There are few signs to indicate how this one will go. Neither the Liberal nor Conservative candidate seems to be doing much to raise their profile and neither has a profile that trumps the other. Yes, Keith Ashfield is a sitting Tory MLA, but sitting in an opposition caucus that has been largely invisible since Bernard Lord's departure and provincial representing a riding in which only the top half juts into the Fredericton federal riding. National trends may play a bigger role here than in previous elections, when Andy Scott commanded a certain amount of personal loyalty from voters. A lot will depend upon where shifting NDP votes go. The NDP vote may not collapse but it will drop, as many local voters have stated that they voted for John rather than the NDP. Those votes will not automatically shift Liberal. The NDP lacks a nominated candidate right now and there is little sign that they'll have one ready by the time the writ is dropped. The Greens have made a few showings in public, which suggests that one of the real races will be the fight for the student/academic/professional activist crowd between the Greens and NDP. That voting bloc is larger in this riding than most people think. I will conclude with my suggestion that polls on party support in Ontario are a more accurate reflection of party support in Fredericton than Atlantic region polls are, as Fredericton has mirrored small city-Ontario results more so in past elections than overall Atlantic Canadian results.
Ultimately a fight between the Liberals and Conservatives, with neither side possessing a notable organizational or candidate-based advantage.
08 02 24 A.S.
Maybe it's a Poli Sci student thing that Fredericton's consistently been more of an EPP poster's fixation point than it would seem to merit--esp. re the NDP, although that last John Carty result actually almost lived up to the hype. Anyway, Andy Scott's done well to keep the Liberal machine humming versus a disunited and then a reunited-but-too-far-right right in a seat that embodied classic Maritime Toryism until 1993. Right now, it's an incumbentless tossup vacuum, and little else needs to be said--though, as an old site of CoR strength that seems to channelled its own innate Liberal-friendly moderation in the interrim, Fredericton might well qualify as a New Brunswick version of North/West Vancouver...
07 11 10 Jeff
This will probably be the seat the Conservatives will be gunning for the hardest in NB in the next federal election. Madawaska-Restigouche will probably flip Conservative by default if the Conservatives are doing as well as they are now, Tobique-Mactaquac is a lock for the Conservatives, and going by what I'm reading on this site, Zed in Saint John is a tougher opponent than the last election's numbers might suggest. That means all guns will be on the provincial capital, and that means lots of high-profile Conservatives will be swarming over the area to try and end the winning streak that the Liberals have had under Scott.
I get the feeling that Ashfield's nomination is being looked at positively overall, but it looks like some Red Tories feel that his win is a victory for the establishment that failed to win this seat on many occasions. I don't think Ashfield can be grouped in with the nobodies who have run for the Conservatives the last few times, since he's known as the ?nice guy? of provincial politics (compared to the last few Conservative candidates, who weren't really known as anything). If it's any consolation to the Conservatives who didn't pick Ashfield as their choice, it looks like a similar situation played out in the Liberal nomination, where the ?old-school? David Innes beat the ?new-school? Dave Morrell. Innes can win if the Liberals aren't bleeding, but right now, they are. For the time being, I think that this is Ashfield's race to lose, but I'm not confident to the point where I'd predict a Conservative win yet.
As for the new Green candidate: all I have to say is ?Thank God.? Listening to the looney ramblings of Philip Duchastel during debates is something I don't want to go through again.
I'm disappointed Carty isn't running again. Whether you voted for him or not (I actually didn't), he's definitely a big asset to the debate, and a pleasure to talk to. The NDP will lose ground here for sure - and it won't all go to the Liberals.
07 11 10 binriso
With regards to the CPC surge, I meant that their vote would go up, so maybe that wasnt the right word to say. Ashfield seem to have won the nomination with mostly the backing of the more right-wing delegates as I think Macdonald, more centrist and red toryish, was leading at after one ballot by 131 votes(Ashfield ended up winning by 8 due to support from the 3rd place candidate, who was somewhat right-wing). That might not be such a good sign since this riding is a little less small c conservative than others. The Greens dont have a wedge issue here like Ontario either, which was the main reason the vote for them was so high, although it wouldve still probably been 4-5% instead of 8-9%. Theyll no doubt improve and if the NDP nominates a bad candidate, the Greens could pass them into 3rd(but a very distant third). Another thing is that alot of Ashfield's riding is not in Fredericton(The Sundbury-West part of his New Maryland-Sundbury West). His provincial riding dips far southwards from New Maryland which is in the north-east of his riding provincially, where as New Maryland in the federal district is in the south-west of the riding. The part that Ashfield represented that was probably strongest for the PCs provincially is gone from this riding. So as to the Fredericton riding as a whole, he only represented about 10%(or less) provincially, basically just New Maryland and a few surrounding rural areas. That could be a problem, since he might suffer a bit with regards to name recognition in most of the riding. He does have experience though, which will help but Im still leaning on a narrow Liberal win. But if the party keeps performing poorly, it could easily shift. For now something like:
LIB 42 (with a net gain from the NDP and a net loss to the CPC)
CPC 38 (net gains from the Liberals and slight gains from the NDP)
NDP 12 (lose about half their vote from 2006 split three ways)
GRN 8 (relatively large gains from the NDP and a few from the others)
07 11 08 Political Junkie
Now that three out of four parties have nominated their candidates, the nature of the race in Fredericton is becoming clearer. I should point out that I have local contacts in three parties (Conservative, Green, and NDP), so a lot of this information is not speculation but simply the sum of what I've been told. Here's the state of each party in Fredericton as it now stands:
Liberal: The Liberals have nominated David Innes, the CEO of the Fredericton Airport. I must say that I don't know much about him or the state of the Liberals locally. It is difficult to say how much of Andy Scott's support int he past was for him and how much for the party. The Liberals are of course buoyed by the resignation of NDP candidate Kelly Comer and her joining of the Liberal ranks. However, it is difficult to know how many NDP votes she'll take with her.
Conservative: The Tories have nominated New Maryland-Sunbury West MLA Keith Ashfield. According to some comments I heard at the nomination meeting last night, this move ensures that the Tories have shot themselves in the foot locally. Ashfield apparently won on the social conservative vote, which is great for winning a Tory nomination but not an election is rather socially liberal Fredericton. It is also hard to say how Ashfield's connection with the provincial Tories will help or hurt him. Ashfield will hold on to the core Conservative vote but it is hard to see his appeal extending beyond that. Brian MacDonald would have presented a real challenge to the other parties and secured a presence in traditional non-Tory areas, namely the UNB/STU campus. Ashfield makes it a little easier to predict how Fredericton will vote, as we now know how high the Tory vote can possibly go (35% maximum).
NDP: Kelly Comer's shift to the Liberals was a blow to the local NDP, though the party was already in bad shape here before. This merely rubs salt in the wound. The local riding association is rather disorganized and it seems highly unlikely that the party will be able to nominate a decent candidate for the next election, and will probably pull either some ancient CCFer or naive undergrad out of the woodwork at the last minute when the next election is called. Comer would have faired poorly as the NDP candidate, but now they'll do even worse. And for those asking about another run by John Carty, it won't happen, as he is the NDP's Atlantic Organizer, meaning that his job is to find candidates, not be one. It cannot be assumed, however, that those dislocated NDP votes will all go Liberal. Carty got a lot of personal support last time. Ad to this the stronger presence of the Greens this time around, and it is difficult to say where the NDP vote will go. What is certain is that the NDP vote will decline.
Green: The Greens have nominated Mary Lou Babineau, a Spanish professor at STU. This is the first time that the Greens have had a credible candidate in Fredericton and the local Greens are much more organized and well-funded than before, and could scoop up a lot of disenchanted NDP voters, among others. The Greens are the real wildcard in this election, and I see no reason why they can't at least displace the NDP here. This is likely the Atlantic Canadian riding with the second strongest potential for the Greens, after Central Nova. Fredericton also resembles in many ways the ‘small city with a campus’ Ontario ridings that were so responsive to the Greens in the recent Ontario provincial election (one thinks of Guelph).
In conclusion, the dynamics of the race in Fredericton are a little more certain than before (namely, there will be no Tory surge), but there are still a lot of factors that make this riding an interesting one to watch (strong Green candidate, no incumbent, declining NDP vote).
07 10 30 binriso
The NDP will drop like a stone in this riding(might only get around 10%) unless Carty comes back and runs and most of those votes will be going Liberal. Enough to offset the CPC surge and win now it seems.
07 10 29 Southside Voter
Much will depend on national trends in this riding, but with the candidates becoming clearer, one can look into what they bring to the table.
The Liberals have picked Innes, who is well known in some circles, but not very charismatic. He may be slightly more or less appealing as Andy Scott, but certainly less well known.
The Conservatives are about to pick either Brian Macdonald, Keith Ashfield, or Will Forrestall.
Forrestall most likely will not win the nomination and would lose the riding as a Conservative candidate, as he did as a PC candidate.
Ashfield brings a lot of supporters from his provincial riding, New Maryland-Sunbury West, half of which overlaps with the federal riding. However, his numbers provincially are similar to Pat Lynch's federal results last time, so this isn't new support.
Macdonald has resounding support in Minto, a traditionally Liberal area and has a strong military background, which should drive up voter turnout near CFB Gagetown. He also is closer to the average Fredericton and suburban voter (young, bilingual, well-educated), so he would do well in Fredericton, Lincoln, and New Maryland.
If the Conservatives are polling high nationally, Ashfield can win on Harper's coattails. Macdonald can win without a big national swing to the Conservatives by bringing in new support from Minto, Oromocto, and suburban areas.
07 10 27 Daniel
Now that the field of candidates is firming up, I thought I'd weigh in again.
I'm sure that the Liberal candidate David Innes is competent, but I disagree with the previous commentor's assertion that local name recognition and community involvement will allow him to win by a bigger margin than Andy Scott. In 2006, 13-year veteran MP Andy Scott defeated the flimsy CPC candidate, Pat Lynch, by only 3,000 votes. This time around, it appears that either local entrepeneur and former soldier Brian MacDonald, or former provincial cabinet minister Keith Ashfield, will win the nomination for the CPC. Both are far more palatable, and far more endearing to Red Tories, than the Reform-Alliancey Lynch. (I actually believe that MacDonald would be a better choice than Ashfield - he's more of the ‘young professional yuppie’ mould that Frederictonians seem to love, as opposed to the more ‘country, down-home’ Ashfield). And to be honest, the only thing I know about Liberal candidate David Innes is that he's the Liberal candidate - and I actually live in this riding. He may be well-known in certain circles, but so are MacDonald and Ashfield.
The NDP candidate switching to the Liberals may help Innes, but with New Brunswick being relatively fertile ground for CPC growth based on the past election, and given that the CPC frontrunner candidates are more left-leaning than their predecessors in this riding, I think that the CPC stands to take a big chunk out of the Liberal vote. Stay tuned, folks.
07 10 23 NB VOter
I think the Liberals keep this one. The candidates are lining up now - so you have a well known/well liked David Innes running for the Liberals, and looks like Brian MacDonald for the CPC. Innes is likely to take votes from both PC voters and NDP, and the NDP is further gutted here by the fact that their candidate, Kelly Comer, just quit and joined the Liberal Party. So they'll be running a second choice candidate and that will shift another 500-1000 votes to the Liberals. The CPC would have done better with Ashfield, but all signs point to him losing the nomination handily.
07 07 29 Freddy Beach News Junkie
This was a traditional Tory riding for a long time, and could very well be a bell weather riding nationally. There are a pile of Liberals in the race (6 currently I believe), some of them potentially decent candidates. If Brian Macdonald wins the CPC nomination, he has the potential to beat whomever the Liberals nominate, since he is young, bilingual, educated, really what the downtown/suburban Fredericton people will support. Rural parts of the riding will vote Tory anyway. Keith Ashfield, though experienced, is the same re-incarnation of the last two candidates, and would only win if there is a national move to the Tories. Will Forrestall is a great artist, but not charismatic enough. The NDP is nowhere in this riding, John McCarty was the recipient of a ton of votes because he is personally well known and very well liked.
07 07 03 binriso
As much as everyone in the Conservative party wishes that all the NBPC votes went CPC, in reality nowhere near 100% do. This PC party is no where near as right wing as the Harris PC's were or the Klein/Stelmach ones in Alberta are. (47.5% for the PC's as opposed to 35.7% CPC in NB in the last federal and provincial election and that was at a good time and an election win for the CPC and an election loss for the PC's). Although the elections were months apart, its quite obvious that not all PC voters will go CPC. They are very different parties and the NBPC's are more moderate than the CPC which is clearly a boost in a somewhat urban riding like this one. Bernard Lord running in the Moncton area is what inflated PC numbers there and with him gone, alot of those seats will come back to the Liberals. Moncton East, Lord's former riding went in a by-election Liberal by 25%(!) not even close. CPC will never crack Moncton federally unless Harper gets Mulroney-style numbers(maybe even stronger than 1984 to take Murphy out) well over 50% support in NB.
Ok in Fredericton i believe Keith Ashfield, a provincial PC politician is the CPC candidate, which is probably the best choice from the available candidates. A 3-term MLA in the legislature, he is clearly experienced and would be a competent MP if elected im pretty sure.
As far as the provincial government being kind of popular, I mean to say that if they were mired in scandal, people would be posting that the Liberals will lost based on a poor provincial government.
I really cant see the NDP gaining this election and theyll probably lose some votes to all of the other parties 10 000 votes was really high for them last election.
Green's will never get more than 1500-2000 votes here, I just dont think theyre just not as popular on the east coast as they are in AB/BC, except maybe theres a little chance in Central Nova for Elizabeth May.
This makes the Liberals a bit better off because of a weaker NDP in this riding but if Ashfield is running, he can easily take this away and make it a CPC gain.
07 06 29 binriso
The provincial PC's are different from the Federal Conservatives (and not just in name). PC's did win most of the Moncton seats but I'd have to say some of it was derived from Bernard Lord's popularity and the fact that he was the leader (and we saw what happened to his seat when he resigned) A 25% win even in a byelection clearly shows a trend.
Well its quite obvious that the provincial election and parties wont determine the federal election but having the provincial Liberals sort of(although not overly) popular maybe doesnt help the federal party, but it doesnt hurt either. However if the provincial party was unpopular,(scandals, bad budgets etc.) we'd have some posts on here saying that the CPC will win because of a very unpopular Liberal government in NB.
Keith Ashfield is probably the best candidate to represent the CPC here since he has experience as an MLA and he'll give them a run for their money now that he has been selected as the candidate.
With the well-known candidate thing, I figure that now in an election race with no big issues(like the Sponsorship Scandal/Income Trust scandal), equally strong CPC and Liberal candidates and focused just on party platforms, the Liberal party would pull out a squeaker victory here. That's why id think the CPC needs to nominate a stronger candidate than the Liberals to take this one away. Although the national trend will have to be taken into consideration once the election begins.
07 06 21 Daniel
Oh, come now, binriso; we can't use provincial election results to predict what might happen federally. If that were the case, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe should have gone lopsidedly Conservative in the last election; instead, it was the strongest Liberal seat in the province.
I don't think this is at all in-the-bag for the Liberals. CPC candidates Keith Ashfield, Brian MacDonald and Will Forrestall may not be Hollywood celebrities, but that's hardly a concern; there hasn't exactly been a flurry of star candidates stepping forward for the Liberals (I only know of one announced candidate - there may be others - and I certainly didn't recognize his name).
On top of that, all 3 potential CPC candidates are of the Red Tory camp. If a ?Reform-Alliancey? nobody like Pat Lynch could give vet MP Andy Scott a run for his money in the last election, then a Red Tory MLA like Ashfield could certainly do some damage to a greenhorn Liberal candidate.
07 06 19 binriso
Now, provincially here the Liberals are flying and the last poll i saw put them 38 points ahead of the PC's although its been a few months since that poll happened. They also won a landslide by-election victory in Bernard Lord's old riding and got two members to defect to them. That is probably somewhat of a good sign for the federal Liberals since in the two Atlantic provinces that have Liberal premiers, they're decently popular and the Liberals have almost 3/4 of the seats in NB and PEI combined. In the other two provinces, NS and NFLD, the PC premiers Macdonald and Williams are openly against the CPC, which clearly benefits the Liberals and NDP and Greens. The Liberals hold all of the provincial seats in this riding except one i think although some small parts of many provincial seats are in this riding. Now one of the PC MLA's Keith Ashfield is rumored to be running for the candidacy of the CPC in Fredericton. I dont think the other candidates for the CPC have as much name recognition as him and he doesnt really have that much either. Keith also represents a suburban/rural riding thats probably votes mostly CPC anyways i beleive. With regards to the others, theres one failed provincial candidate and someone else ive never heard and i dont know if there are any others contesting the candidacy for the CPC. I honestly cant see how any good Liberal candidate can lose to those no-names and its not like it was really that close last time, Scott won by 3200 votes or so during a poor Liberal campaign. Dion will have to come to NB at least once in the campaign and id have to think he'd stop off in the capital and help the Liberal candidate out. The NDP vote will definitely decline and theres no logical sense in saying that more of their vote will be going to the CPC than the Liberals as it will probably be evenly split with a bit more going to the Liberals actually and some to the Greens. The military base settlement in Gagetown is going to go CPC like it always does, but ide have to say that the Native reserves will balance that out somewhat. Really I dont see the CPC winning unless they nominate a well-known name or someone who lives inside Fredericton in the downtown area that is well liked. Im going to say the Liberals hold on here for now but really any change could knock them off.
07 05 21 Binriso
With some nobody NDPer as the only nominated candidate so far it looks like it’ll be another close race in the Capital. NDP got 23% 10000 votes here last time so if they had ran Carty again and Layton ran a good campaign while also visiting the area they could’ve had a chance of pulling off a razor-thin win in a 3-way race. Also with Scott retiring after 5 wins here, it opens the door to a possible Conservative win. This will be one of the closest ridings in the Atlantic and will no doubt be close between the Liberals and Conservatives.
07 05 20 new brunz
well with Andy Scott retiring that has opened up this riding quite a bit. Now the Conservatives will have a good chance depending on their candidate. The NDP also polled strongly here and other than Acadie-Bathurst which Godin will pretty much never lose, this is their best chance to win an NB riding. I suppose we won’t be into an election soon but it’ll be a close race here and if the NDP runs Carty again against the Liberals and Conservatives he'll do pretty well although it’d be a flukey win if he pulled it off.
07 04 15 Political Junkie
This one is impossible to call at the moment. Andy Scott, Liberal incumbent since 1993, isn't running again. Only the NDP have apparently nominated a candidate (I say apparently because she has almost no visibility in the riding thus far). The Tories have some high-quality candidates running for the local nomination. The outcome in this riding will depend upon several unknowns at this moment:
1. Where will the NDP vote go? The record vote for the NDP last time was likely due more to the quality of their candidate, John Carty, than due to any massive shift to the NDP as a party. The NDP vote will likely follow national trends. Moreover, the state of the provincial NDP in New Brunswick at the moment is a shambles, and how will this impact upon the organization of the federal party here? Expect a decline in the NDP vote here, the question being by how much. And where will it go? It cannot be assumed that NDP refugees will go Liberal. They will likely split between the Liberals, Tories, and Greens.
2. Was the Liberal vote in 2006 for Andy Scott or the party? Scott had a popularity that surpassed his party, and this likely kept him afloat in 2006. With his retirement, will the Liberals voters of 2006 stay loyal to the party or look elsewhere? And will the Liberals select a more-progressive minded candidate to absorb NDP votes, or try to win over moderate Tories? The Liberal vote will never drop below 35%, but that would be enough of a drop for the Tories to win.
3. Who will the Tories run, and will they be able to broaden the appeal of the party locally? The Tories have shot themselves in the foot here in 2004 and 2006, selecting candidates who had limited appeal with the electorate at the expense of selecting younger, more progressive candidates. Based on the strength of some nomination campaigns here, they seem to be slowly learning their lesson. The presence of Base Gagetown in the riding doesn’t hurt the Tories' chances, but it doesn’t secure it for them either, as some posts on here have suggested. Fredericton WAS a traditional Tory-bastion, but of the Red Tory-Stanfield variety. The city core (based around UNB/STU) itself has a strongly progressive element to it, and the Tories will either have to make inroads into here or dominate the suburban/rural fringe of Fredericton to win. But the retirement of Andy Scott and the potential to scoop up former NDP voters who voted for candidate and not party makes a victory more than possible here.
4. The Greens are more organized here than before. What impact will that have on the vote?
Fredericton will be an interesting riding to watch, and is always a difficult one to call. Since 1988 it has resembled a small city/rural fringe Ontario riding in it's voting habits more than a typical Maritime riding. During the 1990s and early 2000s, the Reform/Alliance vote here was well above the regional average. Fredericton was also largely immune from the rise of the NDP in the Maritimes in 1997. Instead, the NDP vote here skyrocketed in tandem with the rise in NDP support in Ontario in 2004/06. This observation may be useful to anyone attempting to calculate how Fredericton will vote.
07 03 29 RF
Andy Scott is retiring in this riding. With a strong military presence, and the fact that this riding is a rural, anglophone riding, you can be guaranteed that this riding will be picked up by the Conservatives, especially if one of the defeated Bernard Lord Tories decides to run here, as has been rumoured.
07 03 27 B.O.
With Scott retiring, it is way too close too call. It is historically a naturally conservative riding. The Tories also came close last time, but mainly because of vote splitting with the NDP. Although when Scott won it in 1993, it was the first time a Liberal had won the seat in decades and decades, the Liberals came close to winning it in 1988. With a decline in the NDP, some support might move back to the Liberals. But the overall national trend when the election occurs will have to be taken into account before a prediction can be made.
07 03 24 Daniel
With Andy Scott not running again, this will be a wide-open race. Scott may have been MP for a long time, but he certainly wasn't renowned for his large margins of victory. This was one of those ridings that people always spoke about when referring to the need to 'unite the right,' given that vote-splitting alone is what kept Scott in office throughout the Chretien era. In the Martin era, he fared a bit better, but only because of the rather weak candidates fielded by the Tories. With all the buzz that the Tories are seeking out 'star candidates' for NB ridings, and that Dion might make Fredericton a focus for his campaign to increase the number of women in parliament, and I think this riding will be down to the wire.
07 03 24 M. Lunn
Andy Scott is not running, so that does put this riding up for grabs as his personal popularity no doubt helped him here. At the same time Fredericton, which was once a Conservative stronghold has been trending away from it including at the provincial level. In addition the re-distribution in 1997 removed Sunbury county and the more conservative parts of York county so the riding boundaries are not as favourable for the Tories as they were before.

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