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Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Bloc Québécois
Carrier, Robert
Desjardins Drouin, Tristan
Millette, Régent
New Democratic
Roy, Cynthia
Saintelmy, Wilson
Salameh, Alexandre

Robert Carrier

2006 Résultats:
Robert Carrier **
Jean-Claude Gobé
Rosane Raymond
Martin Leduc
Christian Lajoie

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 08 R. Adams
The Bloc Qu?b?cois's incumbent MP Robert Carrier will win here by default.
The Green Party had an opening for candidacy in the riding which 19-year-old cegep student Tristan Desjardins-Drouin filled on the very last day to do so. He has no base. Perennial independent R?gent Millette may just as well have run for the Christian Heritage Party, as he'll get no more than the 30-odd votes he usually gets when running. The NDP's Valleyfiels-based Cynthia Roy probably had never even heard of the riding of Alfred-Pellan before the NDP made her their candidate here. She was late in making herself known, so she's toast.
Liberal candidate Wilson Saintelmy's company reached an out-of-court settlement for charges of illegal trade, and Conservative Alexandre Salameh cannot name a single issue of concern for the riding.
All these profiles come from the bi-weekly community newspaper here.
Salameh was an early front-runner in the sign war, though, with Carrier quickly catching up. The Liberals were a long time out, and the NDP finally got a few out along the main thoroughfares. Not a single Green sign to be seen yet.
08 09 29 Jack Frost
The Bloc should hold this one. The Liberals won't get much gains outside Montreal, so I expect this to be still with the Bloc because of federalist voting spliting between the Grits and Tories.
08 09 26 binriso
Like Laval, this is a BQ win by default. The Liberals are holding their votes from 06 and the CPC arent going to do a whole lot better in Montreal Laval, since theyll mostly be gunning for suburban/rural Quebec(and the City of Quebec).
08 02 18 A.S.
A Liberal seat in 2000-2004; the residue of that being a solid Grit second place in--and especially for--2006. Right now, Alfie P. (why on earth would a seat in the wilds of Laval be named for a noted Quebec abstractionist?!?) seems as generically we'll-see-how-the-electoral-wind-blows as just-plain-Laval next door--for Stephane Dion to grab both seats would be a nice last-laugh demonstration on his part. (After all, for all the hype accorded the ADQ, the provincial Grits still swept Laval in '07--sometimes by the skin of their teeth, but they did.)
08 01 07 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Going to make something of a controversial prediction. We say a tight three-way race between the BQ/Libs/CPC much as it was a three-way race in '97 between BQ/Lib/PC. The key thing will be CPC support in Quebec come election day. As well all have seen, that support is very volatile and if the CPC has momentum, they will attract soft BQ voters (which there are many in this riding). The Liberals will probably retain what they already have and maybe even gain some votes (with a lot of luck). Depending on how many votes the CPC can pull away from the BQ will determine whether the BQ or the CPC take the riding. With that forementioned luck, the liberals may even come up the middle. If compelled to make a prediction now, we'd say BQ, yet truth be told, it's anyone's game.
07 07 12 binriso
Well this certainly isnt out of play for the Liberals, although it would take quite a swing away from the BQ. CPC have a chance here too if Harper keeps improving in the polls. Latest poll shows: BQ 31% CPC 28% LIB 18% NDP 12% GRN + OTH 11% with about 10% also undecided. TCTC for now but it could be a three-way race come election time. This will be one of many close races in Quebec. BQ definitely have the edge for now though.
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
Ridings like this will tell us just how far the Bloc has dropped. As the recent ADQ result has shown us, and the Conservatives before that in the last federal election, sometimes it matters less who you are, and it matters more what party you are running for. This riding will tip when the Bloc nears 40 seats, so it is a good thermometer to read just how far down they are the ladder.

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