Prediction Changed
10:47 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Parkdale-High Park
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Christian Heritage
Borkowski, Andrew
Gershuny, Lorne
Kennedy, Gerard
New Democratic
Nash, Peggy
Parker, Terry
Rishchynski, Robert
Saweczko, Jilian

Peggy Nash

2006 Result:
Peggy Nash
Sarmite Sam Bulte **
Jurij Klufas
Robert L. Rishchynski
Terry Parker
Lorne Gershuny
Beverly Bernardo

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 15 binriso
The only gain for the Liberal party in English Canada(Outside Newfoundland)shows that Saint Gerrards star is still shining brightly. It was a pretty good margin too, 3500 votes.
08 10 15 Full Name
‘There is no way ‘star candidate’ Kennedy can overcome this. The Environics poll suggests that the best Kennedy can do is hold the Liberal vote at 35% and prevent it from dropping down to Sylvia Watson levels.’ I don't know what job GK is going to have to get after he is crushed at the polls on Tuesday; but it appears that the dead man is still walking, in spite of all the brilliant analysis.
08 10 13 New King of Kensington (Calgary)
While I am sure it is a typically hard fought Lib/Dip battle in a smart urban downtown riding (I've fought at least one of those myself) I just don't buy it.
Here we go: Peggy Nash got in when Sam Bulte fell out, due in part to sponsorship scandal tarnish affecting the Libs in 04 and 06.
Gerard Kennedy's personal popularity in this riding as MPP was high. He's felt comfortable enough to be away from the riding (a little bit)
Dion's surge after the debates, based on economic factors, was strong.
Prediction: Kennedy takes this one back for the Liberals tomorrow.
08 10 13
Gerald Kennedy in a sqeaker,future cabinet minister whether it be this election or next he has an edge in this riding being the former mpp for the area. Also i believe soft NDP support goes back to the Liberals on election day.
08 10 12 King of Kensington
The NDP is polling at above 20% in Ontario according to both Angus Reid and Nanos and the Liberals are down to the low-to-mid-30s. The NDP is polling at 29% (up from 21) in the 416 according to Angus Reid and the Liberals are down to 41% (down from 51). Peggy Nash is a very high profile member of the NDP caucus. There is no way ‘star candidate’ Kennedy can overcome this. The Environics poll suggests that the best Kennedy can do is hold the Liberal vote at 35% and prevent it from dropping down to Sylvia Watson levels.
08 10 11 seasae
It looks like Mr. Harper'll win another minority, so more than a few of the Lib-NDP switchers will opt for Kennedy. That and Kennedy's strong campaign, as well as Mr. Kennedy's personal popularity is enough to clinch it for the Liberals.
08 10 11 I'm Always Right
I called Parkdale for Peggy Nash in a close race, back in February but since then Gerard Kennedy has turned into a dead man walking. I understand that Kennedy's campaign team is made up of 100 per cent out of riding supporters as the old time supporters in this riding have walked away from the former golden boy for some reason. The Rae and Iggy teams can't wait to see Kennedy go down as they still can't get over the anger of Gerard walking to Dion at the convention and handing him the leadership.
While Kennedy goes down in flames, Peggy Nash, riding the very big coat tails of Cheri Di Novo has run a very strong campaign and is going to crush Kennedy on Tuesday. I hear Kennedy is going to return to the Daily Bread Food Bank where it all began for him in the early 90's. Gerard better find himself a job because his political career is over.
08 10 11 dls
I think I was one of those people who posted last year all but guaranteeing this riding to Kennedy. I thought there was no way that Nash could hold on. A lot has happened since then... and this with this Environics poll giving Nash a 46-35 lead on Kennedy (I think someone else posted the link) and a Liberal strategist quoted in the G&M a day or two ago stating the the Liberals had all but given up on Parkdale-High Park and Beaches East-York... I think that Nash will win by a similar margin as last time, which is pretty shocking considering the personal popularity of GK in this riding.
08 10 11
Both the Liberals (Kennedy) and the NDP (Nash) are running awesome campaigns here. I have heard that the Greens are now backing Kennedy as a result of the Liberals not running against Elizabeth May in Nova Soctia. When I heard it, I at first did not beleive it but after spending an afternoon in the riding, I came across 3 Green volunteers working for Kennedy. He's very popular in the riding and judging frm the tone of NDP comments on this site, I think they know they're in trouble in this riding.
08 10 10 DL
I was sure Peggy Nash would win in the first place, but now we have confirmation. Environics Research has done a poll of 400 people in this riding and Peggy Nash leads Gerard Kennedy 46% to 35%.
Time to call this one. The fat lady is singing.
08 10 10 MSF
I live in the riding and have seen very little of the Liberal organization. The NDP has been to my door at least 4 times since the campaign started. I have seen as much of the Green Party's stuff as the Liberals' in my mailbox. I think Peggy Nash will hold this seat
08 10 09 seat warmer
Holy mac's smarl, what are you writing a book? King you are on the ball, but i'm not cross eyed, I thought Kennedy was a popular guy, Nash seems to be holding her own, usually Kennedy supporters are out there not afraid of anything, I'm going to admit I may have jumped the gun in thinking this would be so easy for Kennedy, heck I thought Olivia Chow would have defeated Ianno the first time she ran too, but I was wrong then. it looks closer than I thought, this will be a nail biter according to the sign wars. I'm going to disagree with Kennedy being out of touch, I know many people that said they knew who he was, and that he has made his rounds in the area, long before the election was called. King, I change my prediction only because of you, I think kennedy will win by just over 2000 votes. Kennedy has a good liberal base to work with, he has been out there meeting people, he is well known, he represented the area before. But Nash has the elected edge, It will be a sad day for any loser here. Esprit de corpes.
08 10 09 Joshua Zuckerman
I honestly am not sure what to predict here. It genuinely fits the description of ‘too close to call’. It may be a riding where the candidates themselves won't know until election night. For example, Democratic Space currently projects this riding as an exact tie between the NDP and the Liberals! (34-37% each)
However, I'll make a prediction that the NDP will win by a small margin. Gerrard Kennedy's campaign seems to have been less successful than it was originally expected to be, and so perhaps that will allow Nash to hang on.
08 10 09 Cal
PY, come on! All sides are angry about the sign fiasco but that event is isolated from the issues. There will be a small number of voters that will base their decision on the vandalism. Parkdale-High Park voters are much more informed and intelligent to let an act of vandalism, with no suspects accused or caught, truly affect their vote. It won't matter. I think this riding is a lock for Nash pre and post the mindless vandalism. Kennedy has been out of touch and out of mind with Parkdale-High Park voters the past few years, and that will be the difference.
08 10 07 PY
Blaming or conspiracy theories aside, there is simply no excuse for the sabotage and vandalism that has occurred to those who just so happen to be supporting Gerard Kennedy, as is also the case in St. Paul's with Carolyn Bennett's supporters.
There's no proof that Peggy Nash or her volunteers are responsible for these incidents, but then again, there's no guarantee that voters, especially those seething with rage over this turn of events, will continue to support Nash and instead take their frustrations out on her at the ballot box.
It's certainly not the best way Kennedy could take this, but if indeed neighbours are going to rally to the defence of the victims of these despicable acts, then it really doesn't bode well for Peggy Nash.
08 10 05 Old Willowdaler
This should have easily been back to the Grits because of Kennedy, but from what I have seen and heard Nash will be holding this seat. The only NDP seat in play is T-S right now. Nash and Layton will be reelected.
08 10 05 Christopher Taylor
What has happened to Kennedy? I remember him as a force that would have won the Liberal leadership if it were not for mere circumstance (too many of his supporters went home whereas McGuinty's supporters were from Ottawa and could not do so). At any rate, this is not the same man. He should head straight back to provincial politics. The race is all but over in many ways and Kenndy looks beaten, the site ought to call this for the NDP. I think the electorate senses this, Toronto is going to surprise on the 14th and the NDP will take more ridings than expected at the start of the campaign. This is one of them.
08 10 04 Burt
Something has happened to Gerard Kennedy since running for the Liberal leadership. He's become boring. Or has he always been boring and we were all just blinded before by the fact he was an independent-minded young go-getter? Perhaps he has become too compromised. Anyway, his star is on the wane, and Peggy Nash is a force to be reckoned with. She'll edge him out.
08 10 04 Marco Ricci
Nash has the incumbancy advantage but Kennedy may end up being a stronger candidate than Sam Bulte who was viewed as somewhat weak and was plagued by the arts scandal in 2006.
08 10 01 King of Kensington
The Liberal who lost to Peggy Nash last time simply because there was a swing against the Liberals nation-wide and that was enough for the NDP to pull ahead. This time, the spread between the Liberals and NDP has narrowed even further. In the current situation, we should expect a DiNovo-Watson type result if a generic Liberal was running. Kennedy will likely get some extra personal votes, but he would probably need about 5000 ‘Kennedy New Democrats’ to vote for him. I don't see that happening. I visited the riding last weekend and in the eastern part where the NDP cleaned up last time it was a sea of orange and the western part they were running about even - no evidence of the Liberal fantasy of people dropping Peggy Nash like a hot potato just because Gerard Kennedy is running!
08 09 29 PY
Shotgun Willie, you're citing NOW Magazine, which is far from being an authoritative news source, especially during election campaigns. I have heard that there are various rumours that are still floating around involving Kennedy himself and/or his campaign team, but I'm not going to get into them because it would be difficult for me to either prove or disprove them all. Besides, I doubt the average voter will really want to dive into all of that either.
The digital copyright issue, esoteric as it might be, was Peggy Nash's bread and butter in the last election and she took Sam Bulte down with it. Now that she's gone, she's no longer a reason for voters to continue to vote for Nash. She also hasn't said very much about the issue since heading to Ottawa, if at all...unless someone can find something in Hansard to prove that she has.
As well, I don't believe that any spillover effect from neighbouring Trinity--Spadina will be a factor; only those who happen to know people close to the respective campaigns in that riding will really have a better sense of how close the race is, so that'll hardly make deciding between Nash and Kennedy any easier.
Kennedy can draw upon his experience at Queen's Park but Nash only has the two-and-a-half years of the Harper minority government under her belt. As for Cheri DiNovo, she's still raw politically but also needs to be careful not to overshadow her federal cousin because I'm not sure if everyone knows that she brushed off her own rumours of running for the provincial NDP leadership, so she can't afford to be a distraction for Nash.
People will remember Gerard Kennedy as they remember him, and not through the media. I would certainly hope Peggy Nash hasn't gone so far as to exploit their analysis to her advantage because that would be disastrous for her campaign if voters ended up tuning her out because she dared to do that at the doors.
08 09 29 Shotgun Wille
Last Thursday, the weekly Toronto paper, NOW published a story about Gerard Kennedy taking abuse from people in the street as he campaigned in this riding. People were not happy about Kennedy backing Dion at the leadership convention. Then on Saturday, Christina Blizzard in her column wrote how Peggy Nash and NDP MPP Cheri DiNovo were ‘double teaming’ Gerard Kennedy and that the race was over, Nash was going to win. Gerard Kennedy has gone from getting zero coverage to getting almost daily beatings from the Toronto media. I honestly don't see how any politician can survive this situation and feel that Peggy Nash is going to hold her riding.
08 09 28 redapplefalls
a few weeks ago i called this TCTC.
unlike every other candidate for the liberal leadership, gerard did not attempt to get elected into the 39th parliament via by-election like bob rae or martha hall findley. he virtually disappeared from the national scene after crowning dion. more importantly, peggy nash has spent 2.5 years getting herself noticed. she worked on a tag-team effort with provincial cohort cheri dinovo for a $10 minimum wage. as of yesterday the liberals and NDP were tied for support. 800-1500 vote hold for the NDP.
08 09 26 binriso
Somehow I really wonder if Dion is really that hated here? I mean voters voted 80% for Centre-Left parties (if you include the Liberals as a centre-left party) in this riding. So Id think theyd maybe be more apt to vote Liberal than if Ignatieff was leader at least. I think the Liberals who might be helping other parties is probably overblown in the riding, and Kennedy will probably still win, probably one of those things where people will wonder how did it happen? something against logic and trends and almost every recent predicter.
And Its really only been 2 years since he represented the riding, that isnt that long.
08 09 25
Gerrard Kennedy may be a big Liberal name but people will link him to Stephane Dion since he is the key reason Dion won the leadership. Personally, I like Dion but the reality is that he is not connecting with Canadians. Furthermore, if Kennedy loses, this will at least give him time to go back to university to work on his undergraduate degree which he dropped-out of and never finished. :)
08 09 24 E. L. Smerl
NDP hold. Kennedy's star has fallen inside the Liberal Party of Canada for several reasons and party insiders may be hoping he loses this to Nash so he can be quickly disposed of.
Some of his supporters consider him to have betrayed the party, also, by running against the NDP in a downtown ‘anyone but Conservative’ riding rather than take on Harper's regime directly in a 905 region suburban riding, where he could have reduced Harper's odds of holding on by one seat.
But Liberal bunker reasons for wanting Kennedy to go away are compelling:
1. As Chantal Hebert just reminded everyone, Kennedy gave the party Dion. Those who regret that choice now regret Kennedy's influence also, and do not relish Dion being forced to endorse him as a quid pro quo at the next convention, opening the door to another chaotic hotly contested convention.
2. Kennedy was the only leadership candidate offside on the ‘green economy’ message - in fact not mentioning it at all in his address at the convention. It's now very clear the Liberals must lure Green voters and to do this they absolutely require a clear practical green economic focus to their campaign. Just as in the 60s when the Liberals survived only by hammering selected NDP planks into their platforms, today they survive only by proving they are the best people to implement the Greens' agenda.
3. When put in charge of the platform and election planning, Kennedy did a miserable job. He had to be quietly sidelined in favour of brighter bulbs.
4. Along with Justin Trudeau, Kennedy strongly opposed the ‘Quebec is a nation’ declaration that has clearly led to a decline in separatism and a similar decline in Bloc vote. As Hebert points out, the Liberals did not gain from this decline in part because Dion, who actually did the most to defeat the separatist cause, had alienated soft sovereigntists in doing so.
Sadly Kennedy or Trudeau are foolish enough to attempt to re-open this by legally defining or limiting the definition of a ‘nation’. Very bad idea.
5. When Harper filed an anti-democratic S.L.A.P.P. lawsuit against the Liberal Party, Dion, Goodale and Ignatieff, the Liberals were able to file a strongly worded response proving that the lawsuit was an attempt to suppress free political speech on public interest matters. But they were not able to make a lot of positive press out of this free gift. Why not?
Kennedy, again. He'd filed his own petty S.L.A.P.P. suit against National Post reporters for speculating about the reasons why he had backed Dion - which would definitely have been dredged up if the role of civil lawsuits and speculation about political figures' motives and actions had become a major press football. And he has yet to settle it or limit the scope of it. Then there's Paul Martin and Wayne Crookes and Lisa Raitt - disgraces to the political process, all of them, like Harper - and like Kennedy also.
6. Ontario Liberals aren't inclined to support Kennedy as much as hype has claimed. While he performed admirably in the Education portfolio, it was in the wake of a concerted effort by the Mike Harris Conservative regime to literally destroy the integrity of the education system of the province.
After a hurricane hits you, even an incompetent cleanup squad is welcome.
Then there's the Green vote rising rapidly in Toronto, which owes nothing to Kennedy. And which apparently comes at the expense of the Liberals at the federal level, though they tend to pull from the NDP in urban areas in Ontario provincially.
Nash, as others have noted, is a performer who has the strong support of her leader and her leader's partner in neighbouring ridings. She'll hold.
08 09 23 Torontonian537
Back when Kennedy was appointed to this seat, I thought he would take it easily. At the time, Nash was a low-profile rookie, while Gerard was a longtime, popular former MPP who looked like a serious contender in the next Liberal leadership race. How times have changed - it turns out Nash has been one of the most prominent first-term MPs this parliament, and Kennedy has fallen far behind Rae and Ignatieff as a potential leader. When these factors are combined with polling trends, Gerard will be lucky if he can hold Nash to her 2006 margin of victory.
08 09 22 Shotgun Willie
There is no question Gerard Kennedy's once golden reputation has been tarnished over the last few years. I believe a lot of people voted for him in this riding in previous elections because they saw Kennedy as the next Premier of Ontario. These days no one sees Kennedy taking any kind of leadership role again and that will reduce his support. Peggy Nash is not as flashy as Gerard Kennedy but she has built a solid reputation in her riding. This will be close but I think Kennedy's star has fallen so far that he won't be able to beat Nash.
08 09 22 Devon P
My parents live in this riding, and I lived there until about a year ago. My perception is that Kennedy's profile has faded substantially, while Nash has manged to cement herself in the public consciousness. This should be an NDP hold.
08 09 20 MH
If voters in P-HP are aware of Gerard Kennedy's role in delivering the Liberal Party leadership to Stephane Dion it may cost him. But most voters will have different concerns, I suspect, such as the economy. That may damage Peggy Nash's prospects. She seems to be personally popular, however, and although the riding has a long tradition of voting Liberal (except for 1984, when the PC's won, and 2006), Nash may squeak through. But Kennedy may win because of name recognition. Still TCTC.
08 09 19 Time to Pay the Piper
Chantal Hebert roasted Gerard Kennedy in her column in the Toronto Star today for supporting Dion and wrecking the Liberal party. This is the first coverage Kennedy has received in a while and it's all negative. NDP MP Peggy Nash should not be underestimated in this riding as she has a very strong campaign going on as Kennedy seems to fade with every day.
Nash also has the very popular MPP Cheri Di Novo working full time on the campaign. I predict Nash pulls the upset and ends Kennedy's political career.
08 09 18 DL
With more than a few out of riding Liberals apparently dropping in to help the *NDP* candidate it looks like one or more potential Liberal leadership candidates (or rogue elements within) are hoping to knock Kennedy out of the race to replace Dion. These Liberal machinations work to Nash's benefit.
08 09 18 Roncey Poncey
I am new to the Parkdale-High Park riding and for the first time in my young voting life, I am faced with a tough choice in a 'hot' riding that has Gerard Kennedy and Peggy Nash facing off. In the past I have supported the Dippers both at the provincal and federal level. That said, I do like Kennedy quite a lot and his popularity in this neighbourhood and past work with the Daily Bread food bank still resonates in the Junction part of this riding.
Even in the year I have lived here just west of Roncesvalles, the Polish exodus has been profund. Local businessnes that once hocked ethnic baked goods and deli products have been replaced with more yuppie geared coffee shops, gift-basket emporiums, pet daycares and the like. Suffice it to say, the affluence of this riding especially west of Roncesvalles is on the rise. That said, I don't envison many of these people, myself included voting for the sacrifical lamb Conservative candidate so that leaves the touted tilt between Nash and Kennedy. My question is how many votes will the Greens get and will they be from those whom would otherwise vote NDP or Liberal?
Nash seems truly respected and even loved in the neighbourhood. Her championing of The Revue Cinema seems to have cemented her dominance in the sign war along Roncesvalles. Her brief record as an MP is impressive as well.
Kennedy on the other hand has made a serious play to become an MP in tough riding, turning down the cakewalk that would have been London North in favour of a riding he actually lives in, and has served as an MPP in the past. His push for Liberal leader was also admirable and though he is saddled with the baggage of being Dion's kingmaker,I believe that high profile action won't damage him in this election.
Kennedy is a man who deserves to have a seat in Ottawa and the House as a whole would be better for his presence. But Nash has served with dedication and showed committment to her riding and to larger national issues.
If the ballot was in front of me right now I would be hard pressed to make a quick X for either cadidate.
An election issue for me is their respective takes on Bill C-61 and I would perhaps make this my election issue. Does anyone have any information as to either cadidates stance on this? I feel that the spirit of this proposed legislation is a worrysome and backwards as any from Harper's government and fear a Tory majority would push many other initiaves like it through.
I remain undecided and open to debate.
08 09 16 Bill Stewart
Dear Always Right:
This was never going to be a cakewalk for either candidate. The sagging political fortunes of the Liberal Party, owing as they do, much to Gerard Kennedy (Dion and a squabbling caucus is the overwhelming reason for the drop in Liberal support), will actually make it extremely difficult for Kennedy to win this riding.
Head to head, Kennedy is outmatched by Peggy Nash. She is the incumbent. She has federal experience. CPAC crowned her the hardest working new MP in all of parliament. Nash is extremely well liked and admired in the community. For her dedicated service to the riding Nash deserves to be rewarded, not punished.
08 09 15 Always Right
People in Parkdale-High Park are among the most urbane and educated in the City of Toronto. They voted in great numbers for Kennedy provincially, and will be inclined to do so more given the fact that Kennedy is a leadership hopeful after the inevitable demise of Stephane Dion post-election. Given the sagging fortunes of the Liberal Party nationally, this will not be a cakewalk for Kennedy, but expect him to nevertheless take it with ~40% of the vote in what will be one of the rare bright spots for the Libs on election night.
08 09 13 northbynorthwest
All the politicos who love this site should just drive to Parkdale High Park and get a lawn chair for THE election battle royale between NDP incumbent Nash and Liberal leader wannabee Kennedy. All my grown up nephews and neices living in the riding say they have already been canvassed in the first week of the campaign. Nash has had a good term as the MP, showing up everywhere and using the commmunications available to the MPs. Layton gave her a high profile critic job to also get her in the media.
Ontario Liberal support appears to be holding better than in several provinces, if you believe the polls. Follow that trend through the campaign to see if Kennedy can hold Liberal support. If Dion continues to trail badly, and does not perform well in the debates, both plausible, I think swing voters, including some Liberals, will return Nash to ensure it is a seat that doesn't contribute to a Harper majority. I don't know the Conservative candidate. i haven't heard anything that suggests a three-way race. It will be interesting to see if a Kennedy defeat would end his unofficial leadership race. I don't think it would.
08 09 10 Old Willowdaler
As I read some of the postings here it was tough not to break out laughing. Now I respect Kennedy but he will NOT GET 75% of the vote, as for a lot of the posts here about Nash being one step below god its as ludicrious as the 75% comment.
Last time Bulte was dumped not because Nash was so perfect but because of an action she took that some felt was a scandal.
Gerrard has long represented this area provincally -this is true.He has been out for a bit this is also true. He has name recognition and the leadership certainly make his name known is also true. The fact is that he is also better known and a superior candidate to Watson, all of the above taken into account I would say the positives slightly outweigh the negatives.
Peggy is well known in the union movement but that does not always translate into votes from the rank in file, for if it did then Oshawa would always elect NDP by a landslide. Nash has not been high profile like DiNovo either so I am finding it hard to fathom consequently comments posted here that Nash is a shoe in as the facts do not bear this out.
We are 30 days out but my gut is its going to be Liberal but its still TCTC and the total maybe 1500 or less
08 09 10 Eddie Creechman
Changing demographics in this riding are a problem for Kennedy, as is his low profile. Bulte was an incumbent and one who was elected on the coattails of the formidable Jesse Flis. However, the eastern European composition of the area has been diluted as the yuppies have moved in, and the vote will change. The 2,800 votes received by the Green candidate are not likely to decline as a result of Dion's environmental message, but a stronger showing by the Greenies could cut into Kennedy's vote. My guess: A slightly bigger victory margin for Nash, and Kennedy runs for the Toronto mayoralty next time around.
08 09 09 King of Kensington
Is seat warmer for real? Mark this ‘Kennedy with 75% of the vote’ claim down as the most absurd prediction so far (well maybe after Minna beating Churley by 10,000 votes). But if it was an impression of a starry-eyed Gerrard Kennedy supporter who thinks that because he was elected by a big margin against a moribund NDP years ago people will drop Peggy Nash like a hot potato enmasse to vote for the Second Coming of the Christ, it was a good one.
08 09 09 Gone Fishing
Great case made here by Dippers here who say Peggy Nash wins and that Gerard Kennedy's support of Dion is not a plus.
This needs to go in the NDP column. Things can change but surely the current rationale of TCTC is inappropriate with the Libs not showing signs of stregthening.
08 09 09 Tubzz
NDP FTW. Peggy Nash has been working very hard the past few years while Gerard Kennedy has been completely out of the picture. If the Liberals seriously think they can win back this riding they are wrong. It's hard to imagine a worse leader than Dion and that's probably going to lead to a conservative majority. The fact that Gerard Kennedy played kingmaker in this decision says a lot about his judgement and voters here recognize that. Also, the fact that Nash actually lives in the riding gives her an advantage.
08 09 09 seat warmer
Gerrard Kennedy is going get 75% of the vote or greater, he has the team to do it, he has the high profile name, the experience, he was first elected there by beating out David Miller, and Rob Davis. although he is remembered mostly for beating out Annamaria Castrilli, A no name like Bulte gave Nash a run for the money, Imagine what Prime Minister hopeful Gerrard Kennedy will do.
Even (if) Dion is a weak leader, (if), that will only benefit Kennedy, because it brings him that much closer to being the next Liberal Leader of Canada,
A Dion loss and a Kennedy Victory will probably see Mr Kennedy become the next Liberal Leader of Canada. My prediction Kennedy 27000, NDP 8400, Cons. 5700, green 450, others 280. sorry if anyone is offended and Thanks for coming out.
08 09 08 spurs
Peggy Nash, the incumbent, is pretty entrenched and extremely well liked in the riding and very well respected by her peers in the House of Commons. Ask anyone who has served on committee with her. Nash is also one tough competitor. On the other hand, Gerard Kennedy is certainly a star Liberal candidate, one whose political career would be seriously jeopardized should he lose. My prediction is this will be a very tough race, hard fought, and eventually won by Peggy Nash by less than 500 votes. The following are the X factors for me:
1. Tibetan community in south Parkdale
2. Sylvia Watson. What you say? Yes. Not only was Kennedy actively front and centre in the Liberal smear campaign against Cheri DiNovo during the by-election of 2006, he waited too long to dissociate himself from this perennial losing candidate. Kind of wears off some of the kingmaker sheen. PHP electorate is among the most educated, progressive, and discerning anywhere in the country, and will not ignore this.
3. The thrill is gone. To many of those who even know that Gerard Kennedy was once the MPP of PHP, it may not count in Gerard's favour. He abandoned the riding and his tenure as Education Minister was not stellar in many parents' eyes.
4. Warren Kinsella. What? Hear me out. Seems every woman at whom Kinsella has taken a cheap shot, ends up doing very well at the ballot box. Cheri DiNovo, Lisa Macleod previously, and not long ago Kinsella attacked and insulted Nash on his blog. Bodes well for Peggy I reckon.
5. Fear factor. If Liberals have a chance of forming a minority government, progressives may vote for Kennedy to prevent a Harper victory. If it looks like PHP will be sending a candidate into the opposition side of the House, progressives are more likely to stick with Nash.
08 09 07 redapplefalls
parkdale-high park will be a sort of bellweather riding for the liberals and NDP.
peggy nash may not be as high-profile as her provincial counterpart cheri dinovo, but the NDP have continued to strengthen their hold in central urban ridings in nearly every major city in ontario and british columbia, and have even broken ground in montreal.
coupled with dion's universally perceived weakness, parkdale-high park would seem to tilt strongly in the NDP's favour -- if not for the gerrard kennedy factor.
however, if dion continues to be perceived as weak -- especially against the increasingly prime ministerial jack layton and his handful of high-profile Toronto MPs -- then this riding may remain out of reach for the liberals.
08 09 04 binriso
Still pretty sure Kennedy is going to win here, The Liberals probably arent going to lose many votes in the 416 area and with his star power theres no question he?ll win. Not to mention there will definitely be a push to elect him from party volunteers being a strong leadership contender last time and a Dion ally.
08 05 18 Torontonian537
TCTC is the right call for this seat right now. Parkdale-High Park is the most intriguing race in Toronto this election, since it involves a Liberal leadership contender running against an incumbent, not in a safe by-election. The seat leans towards Nash, since she is a relatively high-profile first-term MP. Gerard Kennedy has been invisible since the leadership race, and unlike the political junkies who write on this site, the average voter won't remember much about a guy who hasn't held any elected office in two years. Unless Layton is in danger (very unlikely), the Dippers will focus most of their resources here and in Trinity-Spadina, while the Liberals' will be more evenly spread. Kennedy's leadership bid could be a two-edged sword. It will also be interesting to see how Liberal activists view Kennedy, since he is most responsible for making Dion leader. If the rumours about Kennedy's crumbling campaign team and finances are accurate, Nash wins by at least 3000 votes.
08 05 18 PY
Doug, consider the source of the latest article you cited. While there's a base of voters who will take it to heart, even with a shoestring budget, Kennedy has the acumen to pull off a win. Seven years as the MPP in the riding is not going to render him useless. If he could beat the likes of David Miller as was the case in the '96 provincial by-election, then it's certainly possible for Kennedy to win against Nash.
08 05 09 Doug The Slug
There was a very interesting story in the Toronto weekly paper EYE about how Gerard Kennedy in their words has gone from being the most high profile Liberal in Toronto to a forgotten man. The story also reported Kennedy has no money for a campaign, his campaign team is small and his website hasn't been updated since May of 2007. It would be a very big mistake for Kennedy to think he can win Parkdale-High Park but just putting his name on the ballot but that seems to be what's happening. Peggy Nash continues to keep her profile up and has the support of the very popular MPP Cheri Di Novo and her well run political machine. It seems like the only time the press cover Kennedy they write about how far he's fallen. Should this negative media coverage continue for Kennedy, it will make it even tougher to take down Nash.
08 05 03 Mikey G
I live in this riding and I think that Peggy Nash is in trouble.
Gerard has far more name recognition, is a left of centre Liberal and has been the local MPP previously.
I have seen him canvassing regularly and he has come to my door once.
08 04 03 Doug The Slug
There was a column by Slinger in the Toronto Star this week about how Gerard Kennedy has fallen off the face of the earth and right now is only remembered as the guy who handed the Liberal leadership to Dion. I believe the NDP are going to lose a number of seats in the next election but that Peggy Nash is going to pull one of the biggest upsets of election night when she hangs on and defeats Kennedy.
08 03 22
Looks like the NDP are out in full force with their wishful predictions. They're hoping Kennedy's team will fall apart, but they don't understand the bond and dedication between Kennedy and his supporters. They also don't appreciate how cunning Gerard Kennedy is. And the recent bi-elections should be a reality check for the NDP. They did terrible in Toronto. How do they think they're going to beat Gerard Kennedy, a sure bet for a Cabinet post in a Liberal government and a potential future Prime Minister with the low profile Peggy Nash? Don't forget, Gerard Kennedy has a proven ability to attract NDP voters. He will win with little trouble.
08 03 15 Curley, Larry and Moe
All three of us have heard through our political connections that Gerard Kennedy is in big trouble in Parkdale-High Park. Kennedy has been tied up trying to pay off his leadership debt so there's no money for a campaign in this riding. There have also been some key Kennedy supporters who've walked away from him in the last six months. Peggy Nash on the other hand has developed a strong campaign with the help of the local MPP Di Novo. Their combined forces are stronger than anything Kennedy can whip up. Public service unions have worked hard to put money in the bank for Nash so she can run a full out campaign. Kennedy is finished in politics after hold so much promise. This riding stays NDP.
08 03 03
Interesting race - an NDP oasis in a Liberal stronghold. This will be very hard fought, and Gerard Kennedy definitely brings his big Liberal war machine to this campaign, being a leadership contender and all. Certainly, the NDP will try to match this organization by pouring resources into this riding. Right now, I'm going make a prediction that Peggy Nash will come out on top because she is the incumbent and has been doing a solid job. Plus, Liberal momentum is in the swamp.
08 02 28 I'm Always Right
Another bad week for fading Gerard Kennedy. No election this spring and it's looking more and more like there won't be one until October, 2009. With every day, Kennedy becomes less of a figure in this riding and Peggy Nash builds up her profile and campaign team. Parkdale-High Park will be a close race but Nash is going to finish Kennedy for good.
08 02 26 Peg Leg Pete
As much as I find the NDP annoying, I have to say they are going to surprise people with how well they do in the next election. Surprise number one will be when Peggy Nash defeats the former golden boy Gerard Kennedy. This will be the kind of down and dirty campaign the NDP typically win in Toronto. A year ago most people would have simply handed this riding to Kennedy but something has clearly gone wrong for Gerard as he seems to have dropped off the face of the earth. I've heard Kennedy is no longer seen as the ‘king maker’ by the Dion team and they've dropped him like a hot potato. Nash is a well known MP who works hard for her riding. She'll have the best team the Jack Layton can put together. This election is personal for the NDP because they always felt a lefty like Kennedy should have joined their party and instead was a traitor signing up with the Liberals. They want to beat Kennedy bad and will get their wish. I predict Nash wins by 1,000 votes.
08 02 19 City Slicker
Jack Layton and the NDP are going to lose seats in the April election. No question about that. This is not going to be one of them. Gerard Kennedy doesn't get it yet but he's washed up in politics. Since helping Dion win the leadership, Kennedy has been dumped from all central political influence in the Liberal Party because he doesn't play well with others. Anyone who worked with him at Queen's Park would understand this happening.
There are a lot of Liberals that would be fine with Kennedy going down in Parkdale so they won't have to put up with him any more. Nash on the other hand is a team player and well liked by the party and caucus. The NDP, including Layton know they have a real shot at holding this seat and will pour everything they have into helping Nash hang on. In the end, Nash wins Kennedy loses and goes back to running the Daily Bread Food Bank where he's needed and belongs.
08 02 09 Quick Draw
A. Lewis has got to be kidding when he thinks Dion will be a help to Kennedy and Layton won't be able to help Nash??? Come on. Dion is so bad his party will keep him under wraps during the campaign that you won't see him much. Layton on the other hand is a hero in Toronto. He'll drop by this riding every week of the campaign to make sure Nash hangs on. With nothing going on at Queen's Park, DiNovo will have lots of free time to spend knocking on doors with Nash. Kennedy is yesterday's news. He's done and Nash will hold this riding for Layton. It won't be close.
08 02 06 A. Lewis
The convention is forgotten, as is the deal with Dion. Dion will back Kennedy in the next leadership convention, yes, but if Dion wins the next election that won't be for many years, and if Dion loses the next election his endorsement won't count for squat. Also many Dion supporters liked his hardline stance on Green issues and his deal with Elizabeth May too, and Kennedy is the least Green of any of the Liberal leadership contenders. He was the only one not to mention the need to build a green economy that sells products that the energy-starved and materials-starved rest of the world can buy and use.
Of course, they're not going to buy Dodge Hemis or other NDP products from the CAW either, and Peggy Nash is also among the least green of the NDPers. So neither of them will pick up a lot of Green votes, as if that matters.
Far more important is that Kennedy will have Dion's personal help and the city of Toronto knows damn well that Jack Layton, who could not even win the Mayor's office, is not going to unseat Harper. Dion will, and so any ABC voter in Toronto must look to him sympathetically as their desired PM.
08 02 07 I'm Always Right
I disagree with the Nash/Minna win and Kennedy/Churley lose analysis. Nash hasn’t really added much bench strength to the NDP caucus in the last two years. Shrill as Churley may be (and some would argue Minna is up there on that count), she does know how to spin the media and make herself heard. Plus, Layton owes Churley a lot from the leadership race. I wouldn’t be surprised if the NDP write this riding off in light of Kennedy’s candidacy, and shift their efforts to shore up Chow and Churley, both closer to Layton than Nash and in tight races.
08 02 05 I'm Always Right
It's funny how AS starts out all his posts upset with me but in the end agrees with what I'm predicting. As AS said last time, it makes sense that Minna wins and Kennedy loses in 2009. Peggy Nash is an incumbent who's done well in Ottawa while Marilyn Churley is simply a shrill has been who will lose again. As it looks more and more like my prediction of a 2009 election it means as I said, years of sitting out of politics for Kennedy. His profile is zero right now and I'm hearing the once mighty Kennedy campaign team has faded into nothing. Nash with the help of rising star DiNovo is going to hang on and beat Kennedy in the fall of 2009.
08 02 04 K
With a strong lefty liberal and a strong NDP candidate (both ideologically similar)fighting it out for the riding's lefty vote, and with a strong, minority, woman candidate (which plays out well in a lefty riding like this)for the conservatives, I think there is a great possibility for this to become a three way race. If Dion continues to act the way he is now on the campaign trail, Kennedy's star will fade fast, and any red tories that were with him will jump ship to the conservative candidate. Especially in the more affluent and more conservative western part of the riding, we'll see this alot, because these people would never vote NDP. This will be a three-way race. That would be interesting: a conservative representing one of Canada's most left-wing ridings.
08 01 26 A.S.
I'm Always Right: first of all, you didn't just predict a Minna victory BEY, you predicted a *10,000 vote* Minna victory--look, however ‘impossible’ a federal NDP victory is there, for that particular riding that's an obese margin by anything other than AudreyAlexa standards, and all the more so if it's Marilyn Churley running again rather than some Dipper no-name. And secondly, maybe Cheri DiNovo has proven PHP to be fertile provincial NDP ground over two elections, but Michael Prue's has proven likewise in BEY over *three* elections, and following in the footsteps of Frances Lankin, et al--provincially, the record happens to be *stronger* there. (Provincial and federal are different things, of course; but still, on balance between the two seats it's more of a kind of parity than polarity.) Really, you've got to face it--regardless of individual candidate merits, a 10,000 Liberal margin in BEY would bespeak a broader Liberalward momentum that'd all but certainly drag PHP into the ‘win’ column with it, regardless of any bloom off the Gerard Kennedy rose. The only reason why it'd be otherwise is if the NDP *totally* throws BEY on behalf of a Hail-Mary-pass effort to save Peggy Nash's (and maybe even Olivia Chow's, and in a worst-case scenario toss in Jack Layton as well) hide (cf. Layton winning + Chow losing in '04--only cubed).
Now, I'm Always Right, if it were a simple Minna win + Kennedy loss prediction--that doesn't ‘confuse’ me, it does indeed make perfect sense. It's the *scale* you're offering that doesn't make sense--at least, it wouldn't make sense for anyone who isn't a pinheaded Minna toady with a serious hate-on for Gerard Kennedy...
08 01 20 PY
Well, the arts community won't need to worry about Sam Bulte staying around; I've read that she might take a stab at the Liberal nomination in Don Valley West. And there's nothing definitive to say that Kennedy's a forgotten or misguided man. It'll be a battle of the machines: the combined resources at the disposal of Kennedy versus those for Nash. But the X-factor could be Cheri DiNovo; I've heard she could be touted as interim leader should Howard Hampton resign. If that becomes the case, then it could be a plus for Nash and possibly render this race TCTC. If not, DiNovo's presence will be neutralized and Kennedy will win.
08 01 12 I'm Always Right
A.S. seems confused that I can predict a Minna win and a loss by Kennedy in Parkdale High Park. It's really simple if you take a minute and think about it. The NDP always think they're going to beat Maria Minna but the make up of her riding makes that impossible. Just not enough Dipper voters there. Parkdale - High Park is much more fertile ground for the NDP as Cheri Di Novo has proved in two elections and Peggy Nash showed last time. I'm predicting an NDP hold here because the shine is now off former golden boy Kennedy and with Di Novo's help, Nash will beat Kennedy in a close race. Makes perfect sense if you REALLY understand this stuff.
07 12 16 A.S.
‘I'm Always Right’, something's positively bizarre here. You're claiming that Maria Minna's gonna win by a whopping 10,000 votes in BEY, yet the NDP's gonna *hold* PHP versus none other but The Gerard? That might be the most bipolar thing I've *ever* encountered in EPP...
07 12 08 I'm Always Right
I don't think there's going to be an election until the clock runs out in October, 2009. By then the once golden boy, Gerard Kennedy will have been out of public office for three and a half years. The last time Kennedy had his name on a ballot in this riding was October 2003. By the time 2009 rolls around that will be a long 6 years. This is forever in this business and Kennedy will have a tough time trying to make a comeback.
Provincial MPP DiNovo is very popular in this riding and will team up with Peggy Nash to campaign hard against the fading image of Kennedy. The other problem for Kennedy as other have mentioned is that Dion is nothing more than a national punchline. Let's not forget that it was Kennedy to handed the leadership to Dion at the convention. Doesn't say much for Gerard's judgement. In the end, the weight of being out of public office for too long and trying to carry a lame duck leader will be too much for Kennedy. I say Nash wins by 1800 votes and Kennedy leaves politics for good.
07 11 09 seasaw
Up until a month ago, I would've said Kennedy in a landslide. The more Dion abstains from voting, the more Dion makes careless remarks ( GST hike ), the better the NDP chances get. Dion so far has made Mcguinty of '99 look very good & it's true Kennedy did take this riding by a landslide in '99 under McGuinty, but at that time he was seen as McGuinty's heir apparent. Many people thought that McGuinty'll get the boot after '99 election and Kennedy'll replace him. No such luck this time, Kennedy's the reason Dion is the leader and the more Dion screws up the worse it looks for Kennedy.
07 11 04 Jake
This one's going to Kennedy. People in the area loved him as their MPP and he has proven himself as both an oppositon critic and minister. Nash's victory last time around wasn't by a wide margin against a less then inspiring candidate. Kennedy has a powerful organization behind him and will have strong support from the Liberal Party.
07 10 14 King of Kensington
Given how well Cheri DiNovo did in the provincial election, I'd say this riding is become more and more NDP-friendly. Peggy Nash is also a very strong MP. Given the weakness of the Dion Liberals, I'd say Gerard Kennedy's chances of taking the riding back for the Liberals have diminished greatly.
07 10 11 DL
The signs are piling up that Peggy Nash can look forward to holding on here. In the Ontario election not only did Cheri DiNovo get re-elected but her margin of victory was double what it was in the byelection. This means that in the more than four years since Gerard Kennedy last won an election here, the NDP has won two provincial votes and a federal vote. As the sand flows through the thin part of the hourglass, days turn into weeks turn into months turn into years and with each passing day Gerard Kennedy becomes a vague memory from the distant past and is out of the public eye, while Peggy Nash sets down deeper and deeper roots as an incumbent. By the next election, Kennedy's biggest claim to fame is that he was singularly responsible for foisting Stephane Dion upon the federal Liberals - and that's not a good thing.
07 10 05 MGK
I don't think the Nash and diNovo victories last year were aberrations; I think the riding is becoming more NDP, and Peggy Nash remains a strong candidate. But Kennedy is an even stronger one -- possibly the only person who can retake the riding for the Liberals.
07 09 09 Nick J Boragina
I wont argue the NDP does not have a strong base here, because they do, but the fact remains that the party only just edged out the Liberal in the last election, a relative unknown although an incumbent. Now the candidate for the Liberals has a high rank and high know-ability, he is also popular with the left of the party and the left wing of the electorate. I really don’t see the NDP being able to hold on in the face of such strong competition.
07 08 31 J Porter
As of today one has to ask 'how committed is Gerard Kennedy to running in the next election'? He just signed a one year teaching contract that involves giving regular lectures and conducting research among other duties.
The press release states that for now Kennedy will remain a Special Advisor to Dion and a nominated candidate for the riding of P-HP, but we will have to watch for further updates on this. With all opposition parties starting to indicate they will bring the government down this fall, the timing is very strange for Kennedy to be finding employment elsewhere.
07 06 06 binriso
Oh man, Kennedy is going to crush Nash. Won?t even be close. He?s a left leaning Liberal and has done a great deal of work to help the homeless. He could easily be Liberal Leader now too and you don?t get much more high profile than him thanks to the convention. Despite Nash being the champion of minimum wage increase and so on, she'll be looking for a new job soon.
07 05 04 Seamus
Parkdale-High Park has seen in a seismic shift in the last 2 years. Cheri Di Novo, a relative unknown, easily beat a high profile local City Councillor, Sylvia Watson to replace Kennedy. Nash beat Sam Bulte because she has a crack team and she better reflects the new demographic profile of Parkdale-High Park. Municipally, NDPer and enviro activist Gord Perks won Ward 14, the formerly rock solid Liberal base within the federal/provincial riding, beating all Liberal-comers (see Ted Lojko and Dilorice South, Kennedy's choice). In fact, New Democrat Rowena Santos finished 2nd. A relative unknown rookie challenger and New Democrat, Greg Hamara, fared well against Liberal Councillor Bill Saundercook in Ward 13 in the Junction/High Park/Swansea/Bloor West Village portion of the riding. Also, as Dion goes, so does Kennedy. Dion is polling badly on the question of leadership. Kennedy better spend every moment in this riding if expects to have a chance to unseat Nash.
07 04 29 Andrew Cox
Liberal Pick-up.
1) Peggy Nash won Parkdale-High Park for the NDP by a little more than 2,000 votes in the 2006 tilt. In the election before that, she lost by a little more than 3,000. In her two elections, she received the vote of between 16,000 and 20,000 people.
2) Gerard Kennedy won the same seat for the provincial Liberals by almost 17,000 votes in 2003. In 1999, he won by more than 10,000. In his two elections, he received the vote of around 23,000 people.
3) Kennedy routinely received 23,000 people's votes in this riding, regardless of whether the general election campaign was won or lost by his party. That is significantly more than the 20,000 Nash received under very good conditions.
4) Nash has the power of incumbency, but Kennedy has a machine behind him that makes that incumbency advantage significantly less potent.
07 04 26 R J Anderson
Kennedy. The Dion-May deal gives the Liberals just enough extra cachet over the NDP that a thousand votes or so may shift from Green or NDP to Liberal, and Peggy Nash is not known for being a champion of green-ness.
07 04 25 Polistudent
Anyone predicting Peggy in this race are out to lunch! It's either TCTC or Liberal for sure. I don't think that the NDP can hold this against GK. If anyone else was running for the liberals this would stay NDP but not with GK.
07 04 25 Incisive Logic
In the 2003 Ontario Provincal Election Gerard Kennedy won 57.8% of the vote, while the NDP came third with 15.8% of the vote. Following his resignation, the Ontario Liberal party lost the seat in the provincial by-election to the NDP, which nearly doubled its vote. Granted, by-elections often have unusual results, they usually have much lower turnout, and despite this the NDP almost doubled their vote. Gerard Kennedy clearly drew significant support from left-leaning voters, some of whom he can count on for support again in the federal election.
Last Federal election in the same jurisdiction, Peggy Nash won a close race in the riding amid conflict of interest scandals surrounding the incumbent Liberal.
I agree that star power isn't always enough to win, but it often is. Take for example the back-to-back Liberal victories in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. Despite switching parties, Keith Martin managed to win this riding for the party that shoul have come third. Gerard Kennedy is not just a star candidate because he ran for Liberal leadership. He is also a very popular politician in the riding, and is well known for his work with the Toronto food bank. Although not the federal incumbent, Gerard Kennedy has represented this riding longer than Peggy Nash, and easily has more name recognition. Gerard Kennedy appeals to Liberal voters, as well as left-leaning voters. The support for the NDP in the last federal election is neither solid support for the NDP, nor for Peggy Nash. And the NDP really isn't surging ahead in the polls either.
The Liberals take this one back no problem.
07 04 08 PY
I doubt very much that Nash will come out unscathed this time. Kennedy's name carries far too much weight and probably more so since the Liberal leadership race ended.
Given that Sam Bulte made a critical error about her symposium at the Drake Hotel during the last campaign, I haven't heard anything more from Nash about the digital copyright issue. And as far as I know, she's laid claim to Gwyn Morgan (former CEO of EnCana) not being named as the chair of the Public Appointments Commission even though I felt it was a forgone conclusion that he wouldn't get the job.
He may not be Liberal leader, but Kennedy might prove to be a go-to guy for Dion. I'm ready to write Nash off.
07 04 07 Stevo
Peggy Nash may have been uttering a few words unfit for a child's ears when she heard Gerard Kennedy would be taking her on. Given her slim victory last election in the face of a dreadful Liberal campaign, there is almost no chance that she can stave off a challenge from somebody as experienced and high-calibre as Mr. Kennedy. As for the Tories, they will shed no tears at Peggy's defeat - much bitterness from her grilling of Harper prospective appointee Gwyn Morgan last year. This may be one of the few Liberal-NDP races where the Tories will be cheering on the Liberals instead of the NDP.
07 04 03 Daniel
Parkdale-High Park isn't as big a slam-dunk for Kennedy as many of you seem to think it is. I would give him the edge, yes, but this will be a race, not a coronation. Besides, star power doesn't count for everything; the ?beloved? mayor Glen Murray lost in an already-Liberal riding when he ran in Winnipeg, while the ?media darling? Belinda Stronach only won her riding by a few hundred votes when she first ran in 2004 - and neither of those people were facing incumbents.
If the Kennedy team takes the attitude that many of the people on this site seem to already have (with regards to this race), Kennedy just might end up with egg on his face when election night rolls around.
07 04 03 R.D.
I don't understand how you can call for the defeat of any incumbent M.P. this early, when we don't even know when the next election is going to be. Gerard Kennedy is a wicked strong candidate for sure, but Peggy Nash is no slouch and we have no idea what the dynamics of the race will be, how the national campaigns will perform, whenever the election occurs. TCTC.
07 03 31 A.S.
It would appear that Peggy Nash is in trouble. Worst-nightmare type of trouble. Period. That's it. Question function has been disabled. And after her poignant 416 bonus to the Jack Chow one-two in '06, trouble doesn't come any more bittersweet. Even if the Grits bomb big-time, this could be their only gain, at least in English Canada. Yes, one can talk about ‘creative class’ inroads, point to Cheri DiNovo's provincial byelection victory--but still, it's a matter of creative class vs middle class, Roncy vs Bloor West etc. And remember: had Sam Bulte not run in '06, Saint Gerard would have wiped the floor with Peggy Nash. *Then*. BUT...Nash is now the incumbent, and with a DiNovo in her pocket to boot. Still not enough, perhaps; but with some polls showing the Dion-led Liberals standing on quicksand, even Saint Gerard might wind up facing a Glen Murray-scale shock within his own former provincial turf, esp. if the Nash/DiNovo experience with ‘real’ NDP progressivism renders his Grit version a faux/smarmy 90s-yuppie relic. Ah, well, in that case, someone like Alan Tonks can retire and hand a seat over to GK in a byelection, so no hard loss. Anyway, unless the NDP were facing 1958 or 1983 or even 1974 all over again, I can see more of a ‘surprisingly’ narrow Layton/Mills '04 margin in the works--and, by extension, if there's only a single seat in Toronto where the Tory quotient is guaranteed to *fall*, it's here.
07 03 30 Joe J.
Way, way too early to call this one. The fact you've done so shows you haven't taken off your partisan blinders.
For the Liberals - high profile candidate, with strong roots in the riding and a history of winning here provincially.
For the NDP - incumbent, recent victory provincially, and an organization that can focus on fewer ridings - this being one of them. The Dippers would love to knock Kennedy off. If you include municipal campaigns - voters in this riding have voted NDP three times in their last three trips to the polls. If the federal campaign is put off until next year, that number will increase to four.
As for the polls - the NDP is down somewhat, but the Liberals are way down right now in the polls from their level in the last election. So that's something of a draw. Likely the conservative vote will go up a bit. But polls are pretty fluid - and in this case, I think inconclusive.
07 03 29 Red Tory Menace
No matter what anyone thinks about a candidate being recently 'highly visible', there are some facts in a riding you can't escape.
2000 or so votes let Peggy Nash last time around beat a back bench Liberal that was, at best, regarded with ambivalence by her local constituents and at worst, resentment for being an out-of-riding, out-of-touch MP who was more likely to be found living in a Jameson Ave. apartment then being a member of any Liberal cabinet.
Gerard Kennedy is genuinely popular in a genuinely Liberal area and may as well be treated as an incumbent for the kind of following he's built up.
Before people start to tirade about the gentrification of Parkdale/Roncesvalles and how that's somehow concentrated dipper support (yes I've seen the new ronces starbucks) to a level rivaling the Beaches, remember that Dion's/Kennedy's Liberals are far more palatable to an urban left-leaning audience than Paul Martin's ever were.
Should Liberals ever win, Kennedy's senior position in cabinet is secure while the most optimistic career prospects for Nash remain to clap and nod to Jack's sound bites a few seats closer...
07 03 25 Esther
Peggy Nash will have a tough fight but I think she can do it. She has been a good MP, very hard-working and with a strong prescence in the riding. Not sure that Kennedy hitching his wagon to Dion is going to pay off for him.
07 03 25 MDF+
Gerard Kennedy. Wasn't he the guy who was supposed to rebuild Liberal fortunes in the West?
I guess he meant West Toronto.
07 03 24 Velociraptor
I think Gerard Kennedy will beat Peggy Nash in this riding. Gerard is popular among Liberals and NDPs alike, and even some Conservatives. As opposed to a few feather-bedded union members, Gerard has done work to help the poor and disposessed. Still, nothing can be taken for granted, and his campaign must work hard to show the residents of our riding that it wants their votes.
07 03 24 P Ash
I live in this riding. Nash is popular here, and has been very visible since being elected. The NDP is popular in this riding, with the recent provincial win of Cheri DiNovo, and especially in the Parkdale half of the riding. Kennedy is going to be a huge challenge, but I think Peggy can pull it off - its not going to be as easy as the Liberals think (a la Sylvia Watson - the Libs thought they'd for sure win....) It'll be close but Peggy can do it.
07 03 23 G. Kennedy (not that one)
Kennedy is massively popular in this area and will have an amazing machine behind him. Admittedly, the NDP will not let any of their MPs go to the wayside but even so, it'll take a Liberal collapse to keep them from picking up this one.
07 03 23 DN
Kennedy will take this over incumbent Nash. He has a high profile national profile thanks to his performance in the leadership race. This will ensure him a lot of press. He also has a strong profile locally, having served as the riding's MPPS for many years. An easy Liberal pick-up.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We have to agree that Kennedy is way too high profile to be defeated by Nash. The only thing that seems to stand out about Nash was the fact-finding mission to Lebanon last August. That was the same trip that got Wrzesnewskyj into hot water, and some may associate her with that. Non-the-less, it's Kennedy's star candidacy that will win it for the Grits as opposed to anything Nash has done. As for there being no safe NDP seats, we'd have to strongly disagree with that assessment. Though many are in trouble, we feel the NDP has a lock on Hamilton Centre and the two Windsor ridings to name just a few.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
I am generally reluctant to call ridings not held by the Liberals for them this early, but considering how large a margin Gerard Kennedy won by provincially here and the fact this riding went NDP after he resigned his provincial seat shows he is very popular here and should win easily, especially considering how will likely get a high profile cabinet post if Dion becomes PM, possibly even deputy PM.
07 03 21 King of Kensington
I'm not going to write off Peggy Nash, she is an excellent MP and the riding has been getting better and better for the NDP over the years. It has changed greatly and has more NDP-friendly constituencies - in the 1980s the riding was mainly working class and heavily Polish and Ukrainian and the NDP only ran at about 15% here. Now the riding is filled with 'creative class' types with university educations and high incomes have moved in and they are very progressive. Though most of the NDP's ridings are in very unionized blue collar places like Hamilton, Windsor, northern Ontario, etc. in the old city of Toronto the NDP has a very professional, middle class base. So in P-HP gentrification actually helps the NDP.
That being said Kennedy will be a formidable challenge. The NDP did very poorly here when Kennedy was MPP and he can definitely appeal to Liberal/NDP swing voters. I don't think it will be a cakewalk for him though and so far Dion has fared very poorly as leader.
Many Dippers from Trinity-Spadina will be working for Peggy. The Liberals will throw a lot of resources into this riding as well.
Finally, note to L. Nino: do you really think every NDP seat in the country is vulnerable, including places like East Vancouver and inner-city Winnipeg?
07 03 21 Jack COx
This seat is going back to the liberal fold, It's going to be hard-fought, but Gerard Kennedy is likely to be a much better representative then Peggy Nash and my feeling is Kennedy is still pretty well liked in that riding despite the fact that the NDP has won here provincially. I'm extremely confident this will be a Liberal win.
07 03 20 L. Nino
Gerard Kennedy can easily unseat Peggy Nash here. Kennedy is much higher profile and there are no safe NDP seats anywhere, including Toronto. Even Layton is vulnerable, if the Liberals choose right.

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