Prediction Changed
10:33 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Bocking, Mike
Gildersleeve, Mike
Kamp, Randy
Monds, Jeff
Nicholson, Evans
Olson, Dan
Richardson, Chum

Randy Kamp

2006 Result:
Randy Kamp **
Mike Bocking
Keith Henry
Robert Hornsey
Dan Banov
Erin Knipstrom
Frank Martin

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 08 buddyface
Attended the all candidates meeting at Whonnock community center last night and it reaffirms my belief that Randy Kamp will take this riding again. I expected a bit more out of the green candidate on the mic and felt that the best speaker was Dan Olson followed by a tie between Kamp & Bocking. Kamp wasn't bad and stuck with his accomplishments in the riding, and hit on taking on the fed bureaucracy over Whonnock lake, something I would expect a DFO junior minister to do. Bocking had a kind of desperation in his voice. I say this because he was by far the loudest speaker and something about the way he presented just made me feel that he knows this will be his third strike and he will be out as the candidate next time. Going by buttons and clapping I would say that 40% of the crowd was behind Kamp, with about 30% behind Bocking and the rest with no particular party alliance. The issue with Bocking's support at the event was that it was the usual suspects that are long time NDP. My point being I don't think Bocking is bringing in new votes. Aside from the voter turn out being lower I don't see the relative percentages changing this election.
08 10 05 whistle
I live in this constituency and would have to call it a flat-out race between the CPC and NDP. Randy Kamp is a good ol' boy religious right-winger in a riding that is growing and becoming less rural Fraser Valley and more suburban Vancouver with each passing year. Mr. Kamp pretty much got 100% of the right-wing vote last time so he shouldn't have much room to grow. Mr. Bocking is a good candidate and will pick up votes as the only alternative. The trouble for him is that the Liberal support was already pretty weak last time around so the pool of available votes for him is also limited. Will the NPD gain enough to overtake the CPC? It will be right down to the wire.
08 10 04 Burt
Randy Kamp is a low-profile MP, and after coming so close time and again, enough voters here will decide it is Bocking's turn. The strong NDP federal campaign will help, too.
08 10 04 buddyface
This is a tough one to call. I don't think Randy Kamp has really done anything special to keep winning, but his overall base is strong, and if this election plays out like last time the work his team does with the advance polls will bring him victory again. I would have to agree that Mike Bocking peaked last election and I can't see his base growing from that point. Generally the scare tactics used around the Harper and the Conservative party don't resonate here like in other places. The Liberals finally have a home grown, and qualified candidate, but the party needs to rebuild its executive and start fresh from this point forward. As this riding provincially is currently NDP and many of the voters split their vote between NDP and Cons, I see most people going Con because they are already getting their dose of NDP at the provincial level.
Of course one never knows what kind of campaign Chum Richardson may pull together!! (just kidding, but I do like Chum)
08 09 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Couple of questions:
1. Since Liberals are tanking in BC, where are the votes going? Would they tend to migrate towards the CPC or the NDP?
2. How lasting is the NDP resurgance in BC? Will it last until election day?
3. Are the Greens any real factor in this riding and if so from whom are they taking the most votes?
Until these are answered more clearly this (and a good number of other ridings in BC) will be TCTC.
08 09 27 Tony
Provincial elections are totally different than federal, for starters there is no Conservative party in provincial elections.
Kamp will win this one, despite Bockings attempts at convincing everyone he's got a chance, he peaked last time.
08 09 24 Seattle Spud
Trend in last provincial election favored Dippers here. Why not again?
08 09 20 SJ
I'm not sure why this is TCTC. I heard the rumors that the Libs were leaving it without a candidate in order to give the seat to Bocking and the NDP, but now that Dan Olson has been nominated the left can squabble amongst themselves whilst Randy Kamp follows the polls to victory.
08 09 20 Dave
This is Randy Kamp's riding. He's a hard working, riding focused MP who's accomplished a lot for his constituents. He's well known and has lived in this riding for almost his whole life.
There's a local Liberal candidate here for the first time in a long time and the Greens have a solid candidate as well. NDP won't be able to grab all the left wing votes here this time.
Conservatives will hold this one.
08 02 17 A.S.
If the NDP's in a mood to be motivated, this was their closest remaining finish behind the Tories in BC in '06 (they came closer to winning in Esquimalt-JDF and Newton-ND, but against Liberals). Maybe having a long name and being on the less travelled side of the Fraser has rendered this a neglected sleeper among BC's competitive seats; but, competitive it is. (And going back two decades, it saw the NDP's sleeper upset of PC cabmin--and current Senator--Gerry St. Germain.)
07 05 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Interesting poll numbers out lately. The CPC is down 8% in western Canada while the NDP is up 8% (same poll has Liberals up 3% and Greens down 3% in western canada). With numbers like that, ridings like this are definitly in play! Still, this is a moot point since an election won't happen until fall at the earlier (we're now predicting one in early the polls again in our winter boots!)
07 05 18 DL
The latest Ipsos poll now has the NDP in first place in BC at 30% and CPC support has collapsed to the low 20s - that makes this seat very low hanging fruit for the NDP.
07 04 16 Emisar
NDP support in BC has stagnated in the last year. And the NDP has gone with the same candidate that has lost the last two elections. MP Randy Kamp has been high profile, is a Parliamentary Secretary, and is generally regarded as a good constituency MP. The only hope the NDP has is for a total collapse of the Liberal/Green vote, something that is unlikely. The NDP may finish third if the Libs run a strong campaign.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
In all likelihood the Conservatives should hold this one, however the NDP is strong here and if they choose a really strong candidate and are able to convince many Liberals to vote strategically, they could pull it off, but I would say there is a 90% chance the Tories will hold this one.

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