Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Maple Ridge-Mission

Prediction Changed
9:01 PM 07/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Bocking, Mike
Dalton, Marc H. J.
Green Party
Gildersleeve, Mike
BC Reform
Vaughan, Ian Anthony

HAWES, Randy
Maple Ridge-Mission
(Approx. 75% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

SATHER, Michael
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
(Approx. 25% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 08 buddyface
No surprise that this one has been changed to NDP. Dalton has done a terrible job reaching out to undecided and middle of the road voters and is considered by many to be nothing more than a parachute candidate. Bocking will benefit from being well known from his federal attempts and unlike MR/PM the green vote won't bleed off the NDP as much. Most of the green voters always vote green and don't stray into other territory.
09 04 27 Globe and Mail
B.C. Liberals' smooth campaign slowed by speeding tickets
>From Saturday's Globe and Mail
April 24, 2009 at 9:46 PM EDT
VANCOUVER and VICTORIA ? The B.C. Liberal bid for a third term that has proceeded smoothly through the first third of the current election campaign ran into serious trouble Friday with news that the Solicitor-General has had to give up his driver's licence due to unpaid speeding tickets, and the release of an e-mail in which candidate Marc Dalton basically equates homosexuality to pornography.
The two men apologized in statements and interviews, but the bombshell developments provided political traction for the NDP, who had been having campaign troubles that included the resignation of a candidate who posted saucy photos on Facebook, and blistering attacks on the party from high-profile environmentalists, including David Suzuki, over their opposition to the carbon tax.
NDP candidate Spencer Herbert, who found the e-mail written by Marc Dalton, the Liberal candidate in Mission-Maple Ridge, said it was troubling Mr. Dalton made it through a vetting process that Liberals, including party leader Gordon Campbell, touted in light of the troubles with Facebook-damaged candidate Ray Lam.
In the 1996 e-mail, Mr. Dalton said he does not support a gay lifestyle. ?I believe homosexuality is a moral issue,? he writes.
?There are other moral issues that large segments of our society do not see eye to eye: gambling, abortion, adultery, pornography,? he writes. ?I believe that homosexuality fits in this category.?
Mr. Campbell, in a late afternoon scrum with reporters, said he thought Friday's revelations would not have a long-lasting impact on the Liberal campaign.
?I think these are legitimate issues for people to raise right, and I think it's how you respond to the issues that makes a difference. I think the campaign is still about British Columbians asking themselves the question about who's best to get us through these challenging times, and get us out on the other side in the strongest possible position,? Mr. Campbell said.
He noted that Mr. Dalton has apologized for his remarks and he understands how hurtful his remarks could be. And Mr. Campbell noted that Mr. van Dongen paid off his parking tickets.
09 04 26 binriso
Id have to call this for the NDP because of the fact that the Liberal candidate is one of those So-Con candidates that are really marginalized in the BC Liberal Party and in the Federal Conservatives(they even denied his federal nomination in 2008) and frankly it looks bad on them. Plus theres a Reform party candidate here, probably will take a few hundred votes and split the right. NDP have a very good chance
09 01 23 Flashman
The Liberals won in this area by 200 votes in 2005, redistricting has added in a segment of a riding the NDP won by almost 1000 votes. I can't see the Liberal candidate holding on in this case, though it's likely going to be quite a close finish.

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