Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

Prediction Changed
9:01 PM 07/05/2009

Constituency Profile

BC Refederation Party
Ariken, Jay
Green Party
Hornsey, Robert
Richardson, Chum
Sather, Michael
Stewart, Ken

SATHER, Michael
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
(Approx. 90% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

HAWES, Randy
Maple Ridge-Mission
(Approx. 10% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 08 buddyface
A bit surprised that this riding is now considered NDP. Sather angered some of the core NDP supporters by going against the party and if Robert Hornsy can get out there he can bleed votes off of Sather. With the exception of not showing up at the dpac meeting (which I understand is directed from the Lib's head office ... dumb) Stewart has done a good job getting out there and working the voters. Still close in my opinion unlike Maple Ridge Mission where I agree that the NDP will take.
09 05 04 binriso
But how many Federal Conservatives would actually vote for a party with a Carbon Tax? Probably less than youd think. If so, the Federal Liberals wouldntve done so horribly (I think they only got 6-7% of the vote federally in this riding) and they got their worst result percentage-wise since 1984 in BC. Recent history is on the NDPs side too anyways.
09 04 28 L Toelg
BC Liberal victory, and not that close. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission went 52% conservative in the last federal election. How many conservatives will vote NDP provincially? Very few.
09 02 14 TAN
Swing seat with a rematch between Ken Stewart and Michael Sather on the card. My read of the polls (translation: hunch) is that the current ~10% NDP provincewide shortfall is most likely coming from territory like this, so Sather's 4% cushion from last time is very much in play.
This seat probably isn't going to be that same old suburban story, though, with voters moving uniformly in lockstep to provincial trends. For one, Sather's rebellion from the NDP caucus on the Tsawwassen treaty is an interesting X factor, and might affect both his appeal to swing voters and the extent of the resources the Burnaby hivemind allocates to him. And the Golden Ears Bridge seems to be pretty much the only major infrastructure project in the province that hasn't turned into a money pit or gotten horribly behind schedule, so who knows what kind of mileage Stewart might get from that. Too close to call.

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