Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Prince George-Valemount

Prediction Changed
9:58 PM 10/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Bond, Shirley
Carew, Julie
Green Party
DeWolf, Andrej Joseph
Dickie, Gordon Wilfred
BC Refederation Party
Roberts, Don

BOND, Shirley
Prince George-Mount Robson
(Approx. 60% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Prince George-Omineca
(Approx. 25% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Prince George North
(Approx. 15% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 28 Granny
Shirley Bond would have been more vulnerable in this election without the re-distribution of this riding. College Heights is a stronghold for her. There is a sense in the community she has worked hard in the last 8 years and some who do not support the Liberals do support Shirley and will vote for her not the party. The NDP candidates have not caught on with the general voters and they will get the regular NDP vote but they have not captured too many of the undecided. I predict a strong win for Shirley Bond.
09 03 09 Steve
Redistribution will make a huge difference in this riding this time. Throw out the margins from last election as there won't be a Nettleton to pull away Liberal votes and the new areas added which typically go right of centre.
This will be a much different race this time. With the economy being the #1 focus and the forestry leaders calling for an ?steady hand at the keel? during these turbulent times, I can't see the resource sector wanting to go with change.
NDP stance calling to scrap the softwood lumber agreement won't help their cause in an area where so many families are affected by the forestry sector.
This will stay a BCLiberal seat this go around.
09 03 07 Tom
With the boundary change bringing in the College Heights area, the increase in firm BC Liberal votes more than tipsthe balance in favour of Shirle Bond. Also the Neddleton votes were right of center votes almost exclusively even if they split evenly she has a potential of over 8000 votes . Ms. Carew , has a potential of only 6400 to 7000 at best. The NDP's only chance here was if the boundaries hadn't changed then it would have been closer call.
Turnout of College Heights votes is the tripping wire in this riding, and theres little chance of a small turnout of them who historically exceed a minimum of 60% and some over 77%, and if heres any hint the NDP will win then the turnout in College Heights will be even greater.
I think any poll that doesnt ask if the person voted last time and intents to vote this time will misrepresent the true potential result. I believe any structured campaign and its a safe BCLiberal seat in its new configuration (ie the last vote is immaterial unless the new areas are included and the aera dropped also eliminated (Bond loses a net of 1200 plus votes and gains a minumu net 4200 it wont be a race!!!)
09 02 13 p. kelly
Internal polling from the BC Liberals shows that the Prince George area cabinet seats are ready to fall to the NDP. These are swing seats, trending to the governing party, and Liberals polling shows them behind. Change is coming.
09 01 23 Flashman
Bond held her seat in 2005 by fewer than a thousand votes, and the popularity of the BC Liberals has not improved since then. As a Cabinet Minister she's directly responsible for government policies, unlike backbench MLA's. These things don't help her support, but the key factor is the 2000 or so votes that went to Independent candidate Paul Nettleton in 2005. Nettleton was a Liberal MLA in a neighbouring riding who was kicked out of the party for not fully supporting the party agenda, and in 2005 his candidacy split the anti-Bond vote. Without him running this time, and public dislike of the NDP softened after 8 years out of power, my guess is that enough of those votes will migrate to the NDP candidate rather than to Bond, resulting in an NDP win, though likely a narrow one.
09 01 22 VanToria
I wouldn't be so quick to put this back in Bond's hands so easily. She has had a rough go of late from the BCTF and her own District trustees and parents have been hard on her funding policies. Plus, the NDP will be looking to pump a lot of resources into Prince George.
09 01 19 Rudi
Shirley Bond has likely picked up polls that will benefit her. That is provided the poor economy, the Olympic over-runs and the Campbell gas tax do not destroy the Liberals in the north. Keep in mind that even with the profile she allegedly has in government as a senior cabinet minister and deputy premier, she won her seat by less than a thousand votes in the last election.

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