Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-09-03 16:34:00

Constituency Profile


Cudmore, Lorne

Currie, Mike

MacAulay, Lawrence

Stewart, Leslie

Hon. Lawrence MacAulay

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • cardigan (73/73 Polls)
  • hillsborough (8/90 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Jimmy James
    Lawrence MacAulay is the Hulk Hogan of politics. For some unknown reason, he has (and will continue to) come out on top of any political fight.
    11 04 24 SC
    Despite a stronger opponent than the last few elections, Lawrence MacAulay is invincible...for whatever reason.
    11 04 01 R.O.
    Mike Currie is a strong candidate for tories here not sure if he'll be able to flip the riding but definity give liberals in Cardigan a more competitive election than they would of liked. Lawrence Macaulay still has some margin for error as he's won by large margins in the past but that was against much weaker conservative candidates. Mike Currie has a much longer political resume and got elected in riding several times at provincial level. but the federal race is different but much more interesting after his entry into race.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Unlike the other ridings which may be somewhat competitive, Lawrence MacAulay has consistently got in the 50s while the Tories have languished in the lows 30s. I expect the same again this time around despite the fact ironically this has traditionally been the most Tory friendly riding of the four Island ridings.
    For more political analysis, check out mlunn.blogspot.com
    11 03 28 BigFoot
    High-profile and well-respected Tory MLA, Mike Currie, announced his candidacy today and will be the Conservative candidate for Cardigan.
    Besides the fact that Currie is an exceptionally strong candidate, this riding was historically the Bluest in PEI.
    MacCaulay won when he 'brought home the bacon' during the Chretien years, but now that he is in opposition that school yard argument no longer holds. Currie can no claim the pork-barrel crown.
    MacCaulay barely won in 1997 (99 votes) and 2000 (276 votes), and in those years he was in government and 'bringing home the bacon.' In 2004, 2006 and 2008 the Tories fielded very very weak candidates. Grassroots Tories would vote for MacCaulay because they felt they didn't have a strong candidate to vote for. Well, in Currie now they do.
    Furthermore, even those weak Tory candidates still garnered roughly 33% of the vote each time. All Currie needs to do is swing the vote by 10%. That is totally doable.
    Currie in a photo finish.
    11 03 28 Jim
    Mike Currie has announced. I think he might be able to wrestle this one away from the Liberals. MacAulay has been at it too long and been awful quiet in opposition. 23 years is a good run but his time is up.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    Mike Currie's name has been mentioned here for the CPC. If they could get him it would make the riding close. That said this is going to stay Liberal regardless.
    09 09 03 Stevo
    What's interesting is that in the recent past, Cardigan was the most Tory-friendly of the 4 ridings in PEI, and was the main Tory target (though unsuccessfully) during the 1988-2008 period when PEI elected nothing but Liberals. Now, it has switched completely into being the SAFEST Liberal seat in PEI. I couldn't speculate on why, but it does make the prediction easy. Liberal.
    09 09 03 JF Breton
    Circonscription historiquement libérale. MacAulay a obtenu 52% des voix lors de la dernière élection et de fortes majorités dans les élections précédentes. Victoire libérale.
    09 09 01 JJ
    This strong Liberal riding is leaning Liberal for now. I don't see the Conservatives picking this one up unless there is a major national swing towards the Conservatives and PEI catches on this trend.

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