Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:16:00

Profil de circonscription


Berthiaume, Jean-Olivier

Eloyan, Noushig

Kiryakidis, Constantin

Kouretas, Ted

Mourani, Maria

Reeves, Chantal

Maria Mourani

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • ahuntsic (210/226 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 WAC
    I agree with Bear and Ape that most of the growth of the NDP has been at the expense of the Bloc in francophone Quebec. However, recent polls have the Liberals in the 15-18% range when they got 24% in the province last election. So it would appear as though the NDP are growing at the expense of all parties. Also, there are a number of Greeks and Italians in this riding - but even these constituencies are none too please with the Liberals - the Greeks over not appointing a Greek candidate to run in Laval-Les Iles. There was a story in today's Gazette about the head of the Hellenic Association asking its members not to vote Liberals. I'm not sure how much of an effect that will have but its like those votes would either go to the Conservatives or to the NDP.
    11 04 30 expat
    A probable Liberal gain, and Eloyan will owe her seat to the NDP.
    The same two Liberal/BQ candidates fought extremely close races here in 2004, 2006 and 2008. This year Bakopanos backed off a 4th contest with the incumbent Bloquiste Mourani - and the Liberal nominated a new candidate, a very strong municipal official Noushig Eloyan.
    The riding is majority (56%) are Francophone, but a huge chunk (40%) are allophone, with only 4% Anglo. With a less than 1% margin over the Liberal last time out, Mourani has no room to lose votes - and the Bloc undoubtedly will lose a significant enough number of votes to the NDP in Ahunstic. Any inroads she has made into ‘ethnic’ communities are likely to be threatened by the Bloc's strategy of returning to a core separatist message in order to preserve their base vote.

    Given that Montreal Liberals appear to be holding allophone votes relatively strongly, I don't believe the NDP has enough potential strength here to challenge for 1st place - but they are running a credible candidate with significant involvement in the local community, so expect their vote to dramatically increase from the 9% they won last time, enough to make this somewhat of a 3 way race with the Liberal the clear leader.
    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Duceppe is spooked by Jackomania in Quebec and has ramped up the seperatist rhetoric and called in controversial former Quebec premier Parizeau. He may be trying to stir up the Francophone vote but this will alienate everyone in the allophone community who remember Parizeau's ‘money and ethnic’ comments from the '95 referendum (and no, we have not forgotten that!). In a riding such as this, with a very strong Italian and Greek community, the allophone vote will stay Liberal while the francophone vote gets split. Harline seperatists going BQ while the softer francophone vote splitting amongst the other parties.
    11 04 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With the NDP sapping off soft nationalists and the Liberals holding on to the Italian and Greek vote, this appears as if it may swing back to the Liberals. CPC are not contenders and the NDP will be the king-makers.
    11 04 19 Marco Ricci
    Perhaps the prediction below was meant for another riding, because I don't think the NDP are in contention here. They finished in 4th place in 2008, with only 9% of the vote. I don't think the NDP has even targeted this riding. This is still a Liberal-BQ race.
    11 04 18
    The NDP are surging inside Que drawing soft nationalist support from the Bloc..This seat is now in play in a tight 3 way race
    11 04 14 Neal
    This formerly safe Liberal riding has been a nail biter for the past 3 elections, and with well known municipal Jaqueline-of-all-trades Noushig Eloyan I thionk that Maria Mourani may have had her day. Another nailbiter, but this one goes to the Liberal column.... barely.
    11 04 06 Paul Tremblay
    Noushig Eloyan is personally popular, and for this reason she will be able to obtain some votes that would have normally gone to other parties.
    The problem for her is that most voters in urban ridings tend to vote for the party and don't really care about the candidates. Another problem for her is that the Liberal vote in Quebec will certainly not increase in any noticeable amount compared to 2008, and may actually decrease.
    Maria Mourani is not particularly popular, but at the same time most voters don't really have a problem with her. The X-factor here is that she is literally hated inside of her own party, to the point where many in the Bloc would not exactly be unhappy to see their candidate here lose.
    Too close to call for now.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    In the past three elections this has been a really tight race and is likely to be another nail biter between the Bloc and Liberals. The riding is heavily polarized between the working class Francophones who vote heavily Bloc and the allophones who generally go Liberal.
    09 10 08 JEB
    What a race here! Eloyan has been forever in the ridding of Ahuntsic at the municipal level, has chairman of the executive committee at one point, and was always respected and re-elected. Her only challenge this time around is to sell Ignateff to the separatist voters who got her elected in the pas 15 years at the municipal level, which is not going to be exactly easy. If it was only for her, I would say easy liberal win, but we are looking again here for a 100 or less vote difference between Mourani and Eloyan. Your guess is as good as mine.
    09 09 14 JFBreton
    Noushig Eloyan a choisi de passer de la politique municipale ? la politique f?d?rale. Elle passe donc de Vision Montr?al au Parti lib?ral du Canada. Ce dernier a clairement choisi de cibler cette circonscription. On peut s'attendre ? une tr?s chaude lutte entre Eloyan et Mourani. Il m'appara?t trop t?t pour pr?voir un vainqueur. TCTC
    09 09 10 odude22
    There has been an extremely strong Liberal presence here since 1968. If Dion hadn't lead the party in '08 this would have stayed Liberal Strong. It was a 0.89% victory by the Bloc in 2008, not huge margin by any standards. This one will go back to the Liberals.
    09 08 26 Smok Wawelski
    This would have gone back to the grits in 2008 had Dion not been the leader. Maria Mourani's good luck streak is about to run out.

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