Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-04-29 23:20:00

Profil de circonscription


Brassard-Fortin, Nancy

Fleury, Roger

Lemay, Dino

Proulx, Marcel

Turmel, Nycole

Marcel Proulx

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • hull-aylmer (199/200 Polls)
  • pontiac-gatineau-labelle (2/234 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 28 MB
    Given the number of polls that have come out and the consistency of the numbers in favour of the NDP, it should be clear by now that this will have an impact on seats. This site doesn’t seem to have registered this shift at all. With the NDP polling consistently at around 40%, they will surely pick up more than the two seats predicted here. The current predictions are based on what the Quebec political landscape looked like 3 weeks ago. As others have said, this is one of the ridings that should be turning orange.
    11 04 28 Stéphane Gaudet
    Selon cet article de Cyberpresse, les conservateurs prévoient un balayage NPD dans l'Outaouais, concédant même Pontiac aux néo-démocrates. Avec ce sondage qui donne 42% à Nycole Turmel, 13% devant le député libéral sortant, la prédiction pour cette circonscription devrait maintenant être faite sans hésitation dans la colonne NPD. Aucun doute.
    11 04 27 JFBreton
    Une enquête Segma révèle que la candidate néo-démocrate Nycole Turmel récolte 42% des intentions de vote, une avance de 13 points sur le député libéral sortant, Marcel Proulx. Le bloquiste Dino Lemay et la conservatrice Nancy Brassard-Fortin, eux, recueillent respectivement 13% et 11% de la faveur populaire.
    11 04 27 binriso
    It isnt just that I am confident, most other people seem to be as well :). Not to mention the Bloc are descending to historically low levels here and that gives the NDP the riding for sure even with the Liberals holding close to 80% of their votes.
    11 04 27 expat
    Le Droit is out with a poll today showing Turmel (NDP) leading Proulx (Liberal) by a 42% to 29% margin (with the Bloc's LeMay back at 13%)
    Clearly the NDP is going to capture Hull-Alymer -- who would have thought that even 2 weeks ago?
    11 04 27 MF
    I'm now calling this for the NDP. No way this will be bypassed by the Layton surge.
    11 04 27 Marco Ricci
    A poll for Le Droit has the following numbers: 42% NDP, 29% Liberal, 13% BQ
    11 04 25 WAC
    With two more polls that came out today: EKOS has the NDP at 38.9% in Quebec; the BQ at 25.2%; the Conservatives at 14.3; the Liberals at 13.7. Environics had the NDP at 41%; the BQ at 28%; the Liberals at 15% and the Conservatives at 12%. If these numbers are even remotely close to correct - then the NDP will win alot of seats - and even though Hull has always voted Liberal - this would be one of the first. Looks like Hull and Gatineau can safely be moved into the NDP to reflect the historic shift in Quebec.
    11 04 26 SouthpawPundit
    NDP support is at triple Liberal support across Quebec according to the latest poll from Ekos. No way Hull stays red at those numbers.
    11 04 26 JFBreton
    Il faut minimalement faire glisser ce comté dans la colonne des TCTC. Personnellement, je crois que l'effet Layton et la notoriété de Boivin et Turmel feront glisser ce comté au NPD. Ce sera sans doute serré, mais je ne serais pas surpris que le NPD se faufile dans une lutte à trois avec le Bloc et les Libéraux.
    11 04 25 Stevo
    Binriso is awfully confident of the NDP's chances in multiple Quebec ridings.
    Personally, I'm not buying it. Every election campaign the NDP surges a bit at some point during the campaign but has very little effect on election day. Yes, in this case the NDP seem to be surging more than usual, and it's certainly unusual that they're doing so well in Quebec, but it's highly unlikely that they'll reap the rewards in terms of actually winning many seats. They will keep Outremont and probably gain Gatineau, but will fall short anywhere else in Quebec.
    Liberal hold.
    Je doute que l'NPD gagne plus que deux sieges au Quebec (Outremont et Gatineau), malgré les pourcentages impressionants qu'on voit dans les sondages au moment. C'est vrai que l'NPD est maintenant à un niveau qu'il n'a jamais connu au passé, mais il est peu probable que ca se réalise à la journée de l'election et traduise en beaucoup de sieges. Les Libéraux vont garder le siege d'Hull.
    11 04 24 binriso
    Seems like the Liberals safest seat ever (never lost ever under these boundaries) as i described it earlier may actually be gone, and to the NDP no less. Liberals are consistently close to 10 points behind the NDP in polling and the Bloc will likely descend to historically low levels in this riding. The Conservatives arent a factor.
    11 04 23 Paul
    I was predicting TCTC before, but with the NDP surging and peaking at the right moment, I now call it for the NDP. It was the third most likely Quebec riding to fall to the NDP (after Outremont and Gatineau) and the orange wave makes it even more likely.
    11 04 23 Stéphane Gaudet
    Too close to call. Avec ce qui est en train de se passer au Québec (NPD en progression fulgurante, Bloc qui s'effrite, libéraux en chute libre), il ne serait pas surprenant que Nycole Turmel (NPD) soit désormais en avance ici. En cela, Hull suivrait la tendance dans Gatineau... et dans Ottawa-Centre, qui est juste de l'autre côté de la rivière.
    11 04 23
    The NDP surge will sweep this seat from the liberals..the NDP candidate is a superior candidate. She will win due to the leader and also on her own abilities.
    11 04 22 WAC
    Every poll has shown that the NDP are trending upwards, but especially in Quebec where a number of recent polls have them in the lead over the BQ. Given these polls, this seat is TCTC and the situation across the province is very fluid at the moment.
    11 04 21 SouthpawPundit
    Two polls have the NDP well up on the BQ and at nearly double the Liberals. While previously I had said that this would end up like 2006 or 1984, perhaps something more akin to the 1976 provincial election is in store for my good neighbours up in Hull.
    11 04 20 LondonMike
    If the latest polls are to be believed, this is one seat that could go NDP. Perhaps back to TCTC.
    11 04 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Nick/Teddy does have a very valid point, re: CPC taking seats won by the BQ by thousand of votes in '06. However those ridings did have something of a Conservative history (of some sort) that the CPC was able to build on. The NDP doesn't have a history in Quebec, which is why we are reluctant to agree that this should be TCTC. Would be interesting to see where the NDP would do well if '11 is the NDP's '06 in Quebec.
    11 04 19 Teddy Boragina
    Anyone remember 2006? With the Tories were polling at 20%? After being shut out in the province in 2004? People thought, maybe, MAYbe 3 seats, max, but nobody thought they could win others. The Bloc had won them by thousands and thousands of votes... but the Tories did win those seats. Just like that, the NDP is now polling over 20%, and seats that appear solid, are now far weaker than anyone expects. The NDP is set to win this seat, so long as they don't drop in the polls.
    11 04 18 Paul
    This one should really be changed to Too Close to Call. It will definitely be a two-way race between the NDP and the Liberals. The Bloc candidate has been continuously gaffing and a lot of the BQ vote will bleed to the NDP. The impressive polls for the NDP in Quebec are greatly helping the NDP and their election office is constantly buzzing with activity. If they can get the vote out, Marcel Proulx will have a run for his money.
    11 04 18
    The NDP is surging in Que and drawing soft nationalist support..
    11 04 18 SouthpawPundit
    A week ago I called this for the Liberals, but now I'm not so sure. Two latest polls have the NDP averaging at 25 in Quebec compared to an average of 19.5 for the Liberals. Maybe we'll succeed where Duceppe and Mulroney had previously failed.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Outside of the greater Montreal area, this is probably the safest Liberal seat. I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP comes in second here, but there is too big a gap to overcome and even with their stronger poll numbers, I think a pickup in Gatineau seems far more likely than here.
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    Someone below mentioned the Anglophone vote might consider going NDP. I'm not sure if many Anglophones will vote for the NDP now that Jack Layton has admitted in the debates that he supports increasing Bill 101 and putting in more French language laws. This may also turn off some Federalist voters from the NDP, as well as racial minorities in Quebec.
    11 04 16 MF
    Most likely this will stay Liberal, but this is likely to be an interesting race. An NDP is not out of the realm of possibility here. It is a good place for the ‘Outremont strategy’ - as there are some common dynamics here. The Liberals win with a plurality but not a big majority. There is a significant Bloc vote but the riding is not winnable for the Bloc and like in Outremont the Bloc vote can evaporate and swing NDP in order to knock the riding out of Liberal control.
    11 04 13 binriso
    This would be one of the first few seats the NDP win if they will break through in Quebec this election and Layton and the NDP seem to be trending way up in Quebec. I still think the Liberals win but theres a chance here for an NDP shocker if their party continues to gain. Not to mention they are attacking the Liberals more and more now on the national campaign.
    11 04 12
    On the ground the sign war has been won by the NDP 2 to one.
    11 04 11 SouthpawPundit
    This will be a Liberal hold, but it's not ironclad. In most of Quebec, the NDP is gaining at the expense of the Bloc, but I can see their being some Liberal - NDP movement in a riding because Hull is connected enough to Ottawa that some of the voting patterns may be more Ontario-like. It's hard for ANYBODY to pry this riding from the Grits though . In fact, it's never been done (provincially, however, the PQ won by 2 votes in 1976 and nearly held on in '81). The Tories came close in the 1984 Mulroney landslide, the BQ came close in 2006, and a Liberal incumbent defected to the BQ in 1990, only to get mauled by the Grits 3 years later. It would take arcane 4-way vote splitting for this riding to go NDP, but it's not impossible to see an upset here.
    11 04 04 Marco Ricci
    Nycole Turmel faced some heat from the media yesterday after it was revealed that she has supported the PQ in the past. Will this turn off federalist voters in Hull-Aylmer from voting for her?
    11 04 03 JEB
    In 2006 Proulx took the election with only a 1700 majority, BQ coming in second. Granted, their was the sponsorship issue. The Bloc had a weak candidate in 2008, this time around they run a very strong and well liked union personality. He could very well regain the bloc support and give a strong ride to Proulx. Watch this one.
    11 04 01 Social Democrat
    With the NDP polling quite strong in Quebec and the Liberals down, this could be another NDP win in Quebec. They nominated a star candidate here and it will be an NDP target. Tom Mulcair won't be the only NDP MP from Quebec heading to Ottawa after the election.
    11 03 26 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Don't just call this one for the Liberals because it is the familiar thing to do. If the riding poll is indeed correct, and we are looking at a potential 4-way split in the vote, then anyone could win.
    11 03 25 Marco Ricci
    This seat is likely to stay Liberal based on its history and the fact that it stayed in the Liberal column during the Sponsorship Scandal, but a Segma poll today shows a close race between the Liberals and the BQ with the Libs at only 28% and the BQ at 27%. The NDP comes in at 18%.
    One assumes that the Liberal numbers will firm up a bit by election day, otherwise this would be a bad sign for Ignatieff in Quebec.
    11 03 17 Stéphane Gaudet
    Devrait demeurer libéral, mais la candidate du NPD Nycole Turmel viendra brouiller les cartes. Ça pourrait donner un résultat comme celui de Gatineau en 2008 (candidat élu avec autour de 30%, 3-4 partis au-dessus des 20%).
    10 01 18 binriso
    Safest Liberal seat in the province throughout history (never lost) and I could see Mount Royal going CPC before this goes anyone else other than Liberal.
    09 09 14 J.Mc.
    Let's not forget that this riding and its predecessors have been Liberal for over 100 years. While certainly not by Mount Royal margins, the Libs have still managed to pull through every time. Therefore, a challenger will have an uphill battle here.
    09 09 04 Marco Ricci
    This race was close between the Liberals and the BQ in 2006 and it was expected to be close again in 2008, but in the end the BQ vote ended up going down and the Liberal vote went up. Marcel Proulx ended up winning the riding by a larger margin.
    Pierre Ducasse did not seem to have a strong effect for the NDP either - the NDP vote went up a few points, but was not able to challenge for the riding.
    Thus, after a shaky period here for the Liberals during the sponsorship scandal, this riding appears firmly in the Liberal column for now.
    09 08 27 JF Breton
    Proulx n'a jamais été réellement inquiété, même quand Ducasse (NPD) s'est présenté contre lui. Maintenant que Ducasse a annoncé qu'il se présentait au municipal, je doute qu'il refasse un saut au fédéral, à cheval possible sur deux campagnes. Victoire libérale.

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