Profil de circonscription
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| ||11 05 01
|The 2008 returns and basic math here are virtually identical to Alfred Pellan. The Bloc won over divided opposition, winning 38% to the second place Liberal 28%, the Conservative 18% and the NDP at 13%.|
Since all 3 of the other parties are losing approximately 1/4 to 1/3 of their support in the polls (and the NDP increasing by evidently capturing all those numbers), a multi-party race like this makes it extremely likely the NDP will overtake all 3 other parties simply by siphoning off enough votes to score in the low to mid-30% range -- lower than their current Quebec wide numbers.
The allophone population her (24%) may give the Liberals enough of a base to challenge the Bloc for second place, but the odds are for another NDP gain here.
| ||11 05 01
|The collapse in the Bloc vote in this riding benefits Liberal candidate Eva Nassif as the NDP will take enough votes away from the Bloc to allow the Liberals to win here.|
| ||11 04 29
|I came up with a very simple mathematical analysis using 2008 results that can be applied to Incumbent Bloc ridings in South Western Quebec.|
The math is simple, indeed probably too simple, but it is simple enough to find where some battlegrounds might exist.
The math is this:
Subtract 30% from the Bloc and add it to the NDP
Subtract 10% from all other parties and add it to the NDP
In Laval the results of this math are:
NDP - 14,527
Bloc - 13,359
LIB - 12,771
This math is making me predict an NDP victory, but as we also see, it creates a virtual 3 way tie... making me actually predict this one as TCTC.
| ||11 04 21
|Boy Gilles Duceppe has got to be worried as he has started attacking Layton a lot more in his campaign, one of those was an interview in Laval. Funny enough that this riding has never been lost by the Bloc, even though in 1997 and 2000 they barely won and dropped to 37% of the vote last time, further opening up a future challenge. The NDP are perhaps a more reasonable alternative than some of the other federalist parties in ridings like this, and can steal some centre-left votes as well as softer nationalist votes from the Bloc here and maybe a few federalist votes as well. All they need is 30% in this riding as the Liberals and Conservatives are down in Quebec. Its possible, though the Bloc probably still win.|
| ||11 04 16
|Had the Liberals gotten some serious momentum in Quebec, they may have had a shot here, but with the Liberals struggling to crack the 20% in Quebec and only two weeks left, I cannot see them winning here.|
| ||11 04 14
|Split federalist votes have allowed the Bloc to hold this since 1993. This riding stays Bloc unless the Bloc descends into chaos, if Marois loses her confidence vote, and the focus shifts to Duceppe and his future.|
| ||11 04 11
|I don't understand why this riding is ‘too close to call’, the Liberals are not going to win any riding they don't already have in Quebec this year except if they have a really strong candidate (not the case here) and the Bloc candidate is really weak (not the case here either), and even in such cases a Liberal win is not necessarily guaranteed.|
The one thing that could conceivably be an advantage for the Liberals are the demographic changes underway in Laval, but these changes are not happening fast enough to give them a chance this time. Things may be different in five or ten years, but the Bloc will win easily this time.
| ||11 04 10
|out of all the bloc too close ridings only maybe 2-3 i could see actually going to one of the federalist parties if election held today unfortuently , don't see them losing laval area of montreal . although it looks like there numbers may be going down due to increased ndp support. as between 04-08 bloc vote seems to be going down here and ndp have improved . tory vote almost exactly the same in 06 and 08 here so shift appeared to be on left as liberals also about the same. but just don't see bloc losing this area to federalist parties unfortuently bloc sticking around for a while. |
sur tous les bloc trop près circonscriptions seulement peut-être 2-3, je pouvais voir se passe réellement à l'un des partis fédéralistes si cette élection a eu lieu aujourd'hui unfortuently, ne les vois pas perdre la région de Laval, de Montréal. mais il semble qu'il y ait numéros peuvent être en baisse en raison de l'appui du NPD a augmenté. entre 04-08 vote en bloc semble aller ici et le NPD se sont améliorées. vote histoire presque exactement le même dans 06 et 08 ici, donc changement semble être, à gauche, les libéraux aussi peu près le même. mais ne vois pas perdre ce domaine bloc de partis fédéralistes unfortuently bloc rester dans les parages pendant un certain temps.
| ||11 04 02
|Had the current boundaries been used, the Liberals would have won this in 2000. However, the Liberals are a long ways from having 2000 levels of support in Quebec. At this point likely to go Bloc, but if the Liberals get a strong boost in Quebec, this might be winneable.|
| ||11 03 29
|This is a riding the Liberals had a shot at taking back when Ignatieff first came on the scene and was tied in the polls with the BQ. But since that time he has tumbled in Quebec, and this riding is probably now out of reach for the Liberals until they rebuild under a new leader.|
| ||09 11 23
|Je révise ma position. À la lumière des sondages actuels, le Bloc maintiendra son avance par division du vote fédéraliste entre Libéraux et Conservateurs. Pour espérer une défaite du Bloc, il faudrait une remontée libérale et un excellent candidat. Ce qui me paraît peu probable dans l'état actuel des choses.|
| ||09 08 29
|Tout dépendra ici du candidat libéral. Avec un bon candidat, les Libéraux pourraient faire fondre la majorité d'un peu moins de 5000 voix du Bloc. Trop tôt pour se prononcer: TCTC.|