Profil de circonscription
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| ||11 05 01
|I'm surprised this riding is being called for the NDP on the basis of a poll that showed a tie for the NDP and BQ, with 20% undecided. The Bloc is much more likely than the NDP to have a ground game that can turn intentions into votes. When a poll says a tie, I think the BQ is more likely to pull the situation out, although I'm sure it will be close.|
| ||11 04 29
|Seeing that Josee Verner and the NDP tied, I expect more Bloc supporters to move into the NDP camp. |
| ||11 04 30
|À propos du sondage CROP du 28 avril, la marge d'erreur dans Louis-Hébert est en fait de 5,4% (19 fois sur 20). La marge d'erreur de 2% est pour l'ensemble du sondage.|
Le nombre d'indécis est de 76 sur un total de 400 sondés (19%). Il reste à prédire à qui ces votes iront. Je crois que la lutte sera très chaude entre le NPD, le Bloc et les Conservateurs. Je ne suis certainement pas prêt à déclarer le NPD vainqueur.
| ||11 04 29
|Selon le sondage CROP mené dans cette circonscription auprès de 400 personnes (marge d'erreur: 2%), le NPD mène avec 32% suivi du Bloc à 30%. Mais comme l'avance du NPD correspond à la marge d'erreur, tout peut arriver. Pour ma part, si Gagnon et Verner sont réélues, je crois que ce comté qui n'a pas de député sortant fort et bien implanté depuis des années va être emporté par la vague orange lundi soir.|
| ||11 04 28
|Avec un NPD qui ne cesse de progresser et un Bloc qui s'aide plus ou moins en faisant appel à des Parizeau et des Larose (on verra si cette stratégie sera payante pour le Bloc, mais j'ai de gros doutes), les sondages de circonscriptions menés il y a plus d'une semaine sont-ils encore fiables ? Je ne crois pas. L'avance bloquiste que le sondage avait identifiée s'est certainement volatilisée depuis. Qui va en profiter ? N'importe qui peut gagner dans cette circonscription, c'est très ouvert. Mais avec la vague NPD que même Nanos identifie maintenant au Québec (42% selon le sondage de ce matin) et au Canada, je crois que ce comté pourrait très bien tomber dans l'escarcelle néo-démocrate lundi soir prochain, au grand dam des bloquistes et des conservateurs qui croyaient que la lutte était entre eux deux.|
| ||11 04 27
|Le Bloc va mettre le paquet pour conserver Louis-Hébert et miser sur le fait que le NPD n'a pas de machine pour faire sortir le vote. Le dernier sondage dans ce comté donnait un avantage de 9 points au Bloc sur le PCC. Ce sera sans doute extrêmement serré, mais je mise sur une victoire bloquiste à l'arrachée.|
| ||11 04 26
||Dr Bear & prof Ape|
|With both the BQ and the CPC hurting to the NDP, and with the Liberals holding their own, this will become a 4-way race! Who would have thought?|
| ||11 04 22
|This will go back Conservative. You cant have a worse candidate than Luc Harvey and yet he got elected in 2006 and lost by less than 5% in 2008. The new Conservative candidate is way superior and will get elected.|
| ||11 04 20
|Je suis d'accord avec Marco, si ce dernier sondage est vrai a la forme, les conservateurs ont a prendre de i'appui des Liberaux et du NPD et que nous improbable. Donc, je crois que le Bloc tiendra cette circonscription. |
| ||11 04 20
|According to today's CROP poll, the BQ is ahead by 9 points, so it looks like the BQ will hold it:|
Louis-Hébert: BQ - 37%, Cons - 28%, Lib - 17%, NDP - 14%
| ||11 04 16
|I agree that the Liberals are unlikely to win here based on their low Quebec numbers, and the fact that there is already an incumbent BQ MP and a divided federalist vote. The Liberals could win this riding again one day since there is a base of Liberal support here (as shown by the strong 3rd place in 2008 and the win in 2000), but that will have to wait until the Liberals have a popular leader again. The Conservative MP last time was weak, and he is the one who confronted Gilles Duceppe on the campaign trail and got called an idiot by Duceppe. But just because the Con MP was weak last time does not mean that stronger Conservative will win here. A Con win here remains a small possibility though because the Con campaign is not doing as badly in Quebec so far as expected.|
| ||11 04 14
|Does anyone think Denis Blanchette can get the extra 10,000 votes he needs to win this seat. I recognize that it would require a collapse of the bloc vote and to some degree other, younger voters coming out but if the NDP are to win anywhere in Quebec City this has got to be the one.|
| ||11 04 11
|The Liberal Party has no chance whatsoever of winning this riding.|
The only reason why the Liberal candidate ran a strong third in 2008 is that the CPC incumbent was a disgrace and many federalists voted Liberal just because they could not support the incumbent or the Bloc candidate.
If the Bloc loses this seat, and there is a real chance that this could happen, it will go Conservative.
Still too close to call for now.
| ||11 04 11
|The BQ has an almost stunning number of factors aligned against them here:|
- no incumbent has been re-elected here since 1988,
- the riding is somewhat more federalist than separatist,
- Université Laval will be out of session on Election Day and advance polling is over the long weekend,
- there seems to be a very small swing from the Bloc to the CPC province-wide,
- last time, there was an exceptional swing from the Conservatives due to their candidate. This was actually even larger than most think since in 2006 there was an independent Conservative and a CHP candidate. No such luck for Paillé this time around.
- the Conservative candidate is of the type that can eat into the Liberal vote, which is strongest in the east of the riding and is somewhat upscale (editor of a business magazine and organizer of several events in the wine and restaurant industry.)
Le BQ a un nombre étonamment lev de facteurs qui jouent contre eux:
- aucun député sortant a été réélu depuis 1988,
- la circonscription est légèrement plus fédéraliste que séparatiste,
- l'Université Laval ne sera plus en session le jour-J et le vote par anticipation a lieu pendant le congé pascal,
- les sondages provinciaux suggèrent une légère amélioration du CPC vis-à-vis du Bloc,
- le résultat de 2008 a été quelque peu faussée par un Conservateur pas du tout à la hauteur. Or, ce faussage est encore plus grand que l'on dit car il y avait en 2006 un Conservateur indépendant et un candidat du PHC. Pas cette fois.
- le candidat Conservateur est du type qui peut faire une incursion dans le vote Libéral qui est de tendance plutôt aisée (il est éditeur d'une magazine d'affaires et organisateur de plusieurs évènements liés aux secteurs des vins et de la restauration.)
| ||11 04 09
||joey joe joe|
|Liberals have a good repeat candidate and Bloc is showing weakness in the campaign. If Conservatives drop in the province and move a few votes to the Liberals this can be a pickup for them.|
| ||11 04 07
|Mr. Beaupre had a respectable showing last time he ran and is respected in this riding. I think Quebec City residents are starting to realize the Liberals are the only option to getting some of there issues resolved, like the support for the new Colisee, the rapid rail project from Quebec City to Windsor, Ontario. Some will park their protest vote with the Bloc, but the Conservatives are in trouble in the Quebec City area and if any riding goes Liberal in Quebec City i believe this is the one.|
| ||11 04 07
|Verner is fried... |
We are in Labeaumeville... and people of Quebec just hate her. Especially with her fake stance on coliseum and her byzantine approach to Quebec city.
With Conservatives ridiculous show (Nordiques Shirts) on Coliseum and Harper's stance on it, it is clear that voting on the right side argument will no longer apply to this riding. People want their Nordiques, as to better hate Montreal...
So, the overall Montreal-CBC-Plateau-hating strategy is backfiring at hands of conservatives, as their involvement in Quebec city is minimal, at best. No airport runway will save this riding from the Separatists. Shift to BQ.
| ||11 03 31
|I think this riding flips back Conservative in the election. It was 1 of the few ridings they lost in 2008, as they go for a majority, expect this to be a target seat for them.|
| ||11 03 28
|Jean, You sound like a francophone but fail to spot the real division in Quebec politics - People in Ste-Foy are separatists or federalists and there is some movement between those positions - soft-separatist and soft-federalist. Louis-Hebert is a federalist riding. In fact every riding in the city and south of the city is probably federalist with the exception of the Quebec riding. The reason Paillé won this riding was because the CPC candidate was an utter a** a week before the election.|
Don't misunderstand the point - the bloc can win every riding in the city but the Liberals could win this seat, the NDP could win this riding.
| ||11 03 28
|This was going to be an uphill battle for the Tories to win this all along. Now with the refusal to fund the arena, it will be a fight to hold the three they currently hold, no real chance of any pickups in Quebec City.|
| ||11 03 27
|The latest poll in the ridings of the region of the city of Québec by Segma ( 21-24 March 2011: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/elections-federales/201103/25/01-4383367-sondage-segma-le-soleil-les-conservateurs-dans-lembarras.php ) essentially confirms the numbers from the previous poll in the seven ridings of the region ( 21-24 January 2011: http://pdf.cyberpresse.ca/lesoleil/sondage250111.pdf ). The latest March poll gives: 37% Bloc, 30% Conservative, 14% Liberal, 9% NDP, 8% Green, 2% others. (For comparison, the regional results for the same group of ridings in the 2008 election were 33% bloc, 36% Conservative, 17% Liberal, 11% NDP, 3% Green, 1% others.)|
For ridings predictions, regional numbers like these are more interesting than province-wide polls, because they are more focused on a small number of ridings, while still having an acceptable margin of error (4% in this case). More specific numbers for each riding, when available, may be indicative, but not really useful because of much larger margins of error. Anyway, single-riding numbers for Louis-Hébert for the March poll were not mentioned in the newspaper article (although those of the January poll had been mentioned at the time and were 39% Bloc, 22% Conservative, 21% Liberal, 9% NDP, 10% Green, 0% others, for what that was worth with a 10% margin of error).
One phenomenon that may play a role in many ridings in the province is the potential fluidity of the vote between some of the parties. That is to say, between the two parties to the right of the political spectrum, the Conservative and Liberal, some electors may pass from one to the other. And, between the three parties to the left of the spectrum, the Bloc, NDP and Green, some electors may pass from one to the other. In other words, there seems to be two pools of voters. One pool consists of the voters who lean more toward the left, and that pool of voters is split between the Bloc, the NDP and the Green parties. The other pool consists of the voters who lean more toward the right, and that pool of voters is split between the Liberal and the Conservative parties. The outcome of the election in particular ridings may depend on if, how, and to what extent, the potential fluidity between the parties inside each pool of voters can actually manifest, or not, in that riding.
In many ridings in the province, it can be observed that in the last elections, the aggregate NDP+Green vote has modestly but consistently progressed while the Bloc vote regressed in similar proportions. Of course, the actual pattern of voter behavior may be much more complex than that to analyse, but I simplify the global result by saying that in general the NDP and/or Green progression tends to erode the Bloc vote, because those three parties tend to draw from the same pool of voters. Will this trend continue in 2011? It is possible. Certainly not enough to give the NDP or Greens any hopes of winning any seats, far from it, but they have a potential to erode the Bloc vote marginally by a few percentage points in some ridings. If this happens at all in Louis-Hébert, it will probably not be more than a few percentage points.
Now, let us look at the other pool of voters, the one on the right, which is shared by two parties, Liberal and Conservative. In theory, the fludity inside that pool could give the victory to one or the other of these two parties, if the voters massively passed from one of these parties to the other. However, I don't see that happening. In Louis-Hébert, Liberals have been relatively stronger than in other ridings of the region, and Conservatives have been relatively weaker than in other ridings. Of late, Liberals and Conservatives have been of relatively equal force in this riding. Each can have some hope of taking the lead over the other. Some substantial movement of voters between these two parties may occur, but I don't see the voters of one of them flocking massively to the other, at least not in sufficient proportions to push one of them to a win. Of course, much depends on how the month of electoral campaign will go. It is possible that one of them will take a lead. But more likely, between them, it will be a contest for the second place.
Finally, the incumbent Paillé is still young and inexperimented, but the people in the riding do not have any particular reason to dislike him as a member of Parliament.
Considering all of the above, in the riding of Louis-Hébert, the polls suggest that the Bloc could do better than in the last election (36%), but in any event, in the present circumstances, I do not expect that the Bloc could drop under 34% of the vote in that riding. And I do not expect that another party can rise above 33% of the vote. In conclusion, the incumbent Paillé should keep this riding for the Bloc.
| ||11 03 10
|A new Léger poll released today shows the Conservatives have apparently fallen way behind the BQ in the Quebec City region because of the arena controversy:|
| ||11 02 09
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|Surprise, surprise, surprise. The CPC is going to change the rules so Quebec City can use federal tax money to get their arena. This will score them some votes and make this one a closer CPC/BQ race.|
| ||11 01 28
|I have to say that I don't understand why this riding was ever called for the Bloc.|
The one and only reason why the Bloc won in 2008 was that the Conservative incumbent was extremely unpopular.
Eighteen months ago, this race looked like a tight three-way race, as the Liberal Party was enjoying a bounce in province-wide polls, and also because the Conservatives remained strong in the Greater Quebec City area.
Now that the Liberals are in the toilet in francophone Quebec generally and Quebec City especially, it is becoming obvious that this will be a two-way race and this always gives an advantage to whoever is the main federalist candidate (and this means the Conservative candidate here).
It is also known that this is one of the ridings that the Conservatives will heavily target in the next election, and it should also be remembered that back in 2006 the Conservatives lost about 1,500 votes to an independent conservative candidate, which means that normally their margin would have been bigger.
The only potential problem for the Conservatives this year is the question of the funding of the proposed Quebec City arena, and at this point it is not obvious that it will be a problem for the party... but it does mean that this race remains too close to call for now.
| ||09 11 23
|History would indicate that this one may still be too close to call as not a single mp elected here since 1993 has got re-elected and there is even 2 senators who originally represented this riding . in the last few years it has been liberal , bloc and conservative. meaning it could possibly be a 3 way race in the next election or a bloc/ conservative race if the liberals continue to have trouble in quebec. it is likely one of the most violitile and swing ridings in all of canada based on its history. the bloc maintain a slim advantage here but the other main parties could become competitve here depending on there candidates. |
L'histoire indiquerait que ceci l'un peut etre toujours trop proche pour appeler comme pas un mp seul a elu ici a obtenu reelit depuis 1993 et il y a meme 2 senateurs qui au debut ont represente ce prendre. dans le dernier peu de ce d'ans a ete liberal, le bloc et le conservateur. signifiant qu'il probablement pourrait etre une 3 course de facon dans la prochaine election ou un bloc/la course conservatrice si les liberaux Continuer a avoir l'ennui à Quebec. le c'est probable un du plus de violitile et de balancoire debarrasse dans tout Canada fonde sur son histoire. le bloc maintient un avantage mince ici mais les autres partis principaux pourraient devenir competitve depend ici de la les candidats.
| ||09 09 14
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|A BQ call already? Really? Are you serious? Okay a BQ win is the most likely outcome at the given moment since this is a three-way race with the CPC and Liberal parties splitting the federalist vote. None the less a Liberal surge and/or a good candidate could win it for them. Would also suggest a CPC retake if they could regain their lost ground; something they have been doing over the summer.|
| ||09 09 04
|This riding could be a close race between the BQ and the Liberals this time around. This riding had been Liberal prior to the sponsorship scandal several elections ago.|
In the last election, there was a 3-way race here with the BQ, Conservatives and Liberals all taking a good portion of the vote. The BQ only won with 36% of the vote, the Conservatives got 28% and the Liberals got 23%.
This was the Liberals best result in the Quebec City area in 2008 and it is reported to be their top target in this area for the next election.
| ||09 09 01
|It is still too early at this point to make a prediction for Louis-Hebert.|
One important reason why the Bloc won this seat in 2008 was the especially poor reputation of the incumbent Conservative MP. Another reason is that federalist voters in Louis-Hebert are somewhat more likely to vote Liberal compared to other Quebec City area ridings.
The Bloc has a good chance of keeping this seat but the CPC could win it if they have a reasonably good candidate (read : anybody but Luc Harvey) and even the Liberals have a chance of winning, especially if opinion polls just before the vote suggest a Liberal win nationally.
| ||09 08 28
|This prediction is a longshot, but I am going to go out on a limb and predict the Liberals will squeak this one out. With Ignatieff as leader, the party looks like its doing better in Quebec and the Bloc are not nearly as strong as they once were. The Liberals will probably pick up a few seats next time (and will probably win about 20 in the province) and so I can see this as one of them.|
| ||09 08 26
|Lutte importante lors des dernières élections entre le BQ et le PCC. Cette fois-ci, je crois que la lutte se fera à trois, entre le Bloc, les Conservateurs et les Libéraux, ces deux derniers se transférant des voix. Je prévois une courte victoire du Bloc.|
| ||11 04 28
|This seat is a quagmire now it seems and anyone could win. The advantage could probably be given to the NDP just because of momentum.|