Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia

La prévision a changé
2011-04-29 23:38:00

Profil de circonscription


Boulet, Joanie

Charest, Nancy

Cormier, Allen

Drainville, Louis

Fortin, Jean-François

Jean-Yves Roy

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • matapedia-matane (152/191 Polls)
  • rimouski-neigette-et-la-mitis (54/176 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    It's hard to know exactly what is happening in this riding. There seem to be a lot of votes shifting around. Nancy Charest of the Liberals was apparently doing well and may have been in position to win until recently but a recent poll gives the BQ a large lead. One would think that the BQ would lose votes to the NDP here as is happening in the rest of the province. The BQ may not have as big a lead as the latest riding poll indicates, and some people on the ground in this riding say the latest poll is inaccurate.
    11 04 28 John McDonnell
    A single-riding poll released today shows the BQ beating the Liberals here 49-24. This is an easy keeper for the Bloc
    11 04 27 Stéphane Gaudet
    Tous les sondages de circonscriptions menés au Québec francophone montrent que les libéraux perdent des appuis et feront encore moins bien qu'en 2008 avec Dion à leur tête: - 7% dans Brome-Missisquoi malgré Paradis, - 9% dans Lévis, - 5% dans Roberval, - 7% dans Richmond-Arthabaska... Si le vote libéral se maintient, c'est dans les comtés non-francophones de l'île de Montréal, pas dans le Québec francophone.
    Le Bloc perdra beaucoup... mais les libéraux aussi ! Si bien que le Bloc gardera ce comté le 2 mai, un peu par défaut. Si les libéraux s'étaient maintenus ou avaient progressé au Québec, ç'aurait été une victoire libérale assurée. Mais ça va tellement mal pour eux au Québec que je ne vois aucun gain pour le PLC dans la province, plutôt des pertes.
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    It will certainly be an unusual result on election night if the Liberals can win here considering they are not doing very well in Francophone Quebec, but this may be the one riding where they can change that. According to both Democratic Space and ThreeHundredEight, this riding is leaning Liberal:
    11 04 24 JFBreton
    Ce comté pourrait être l'une des seules joies libérales au Québec le soir du vote. Existence d'un fort ressentiment contre l'ancien député bloquiste accusé d'avoir abandonné ses commettants, très forte candidate libérale (ancienne députée libérale provinciale) et montée du NPD au Québec qui grugera le vote bloquiste avant le vote libéral ici. Avec ces éléments réunis, je prévois une victoire libérale.
    11 04 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With a strong NDP siphoning off BQ support, no BQ incumbent and a strong Liberal candidate, we're certain this will go Liberal.
    11 04 18 rsg
    Madame Charest had a good campaign in 20008 and is a high profile candidate for the Liberals as she is a former MNA. It will be a fight to the finish, but i'll predict she will take it by a couple of hundeed votes.
    11 04 15 JaneyCanuck
    This is too close to call. I have spoke to people here, long time Blocistses and PQistes who may well vote NDP , esp after the French debate since they see him as more progressive than the other two leaders. I was stunned really. A restaurant owner told me many of his patrons for the 1st time are considering an NDP vote. So either the NDP takes votes away or it sneaks up the middle?
    11 04 13 Stéphane Gaudet
    Nancy Charest a beau être la meilleure chance des libéraux dans le Québec francophone, elle a quand même perdu le comté au provincial et une autre fois au fédéral. Le vote libéral est si faible chez les francophones, il faudrait une tendance à contre-courant dans ce comté pour renverser la tendance générale. Or, ce comté a plutôt l'habitude de suivre le reste du Québec francophone, il n'y a aucune raison pour que les électeurs du coin élisent une libérale alors que le reste du Québec votera encore pour le Bloc, surtout que les libéraux n'ont aucune chance de former le prochain gouvernement. Passe encore un conservateur, pour être ‘du bon bord’, du côté du pouvoir... Mais j'entrevois plutôt que le comté restera bloquiste.
    11 04 11 Paul Tremblay
    Nancy Charest has been in fulltime campaign mode for at least two years and she almost won in 2008 even though the Bloc won every election in this riding since 1993.
    The problem for her is that the Conservatives also have a strong candidate, and this is one of the ridings targeted in Quebec by the CPC.
    It is obvious that Charest is VERY popular in HGLMMM and can obtain for her party many votes that would otherwise go to other parties, but it is no longer that obvious that she is the one clear federalist alternative to the Bloc.
    This is the kind of riding that could go Conservative if it becomes obvious later in the campaign that the CPC will form a majority government.
    The Bloc candidate looks weak, but only by comparison, and he could win due to vote-splitting.
    This appears to be a true three-way race and someone will surely publish a single-riding opinion poll for this riding at some point. I strongly believe that this type of poll tends to be extremely unreliable, BUT in a race like this one it can create momentum for someone and strongly influence the result.
    At this point this is too close to call.
    11 04 04 Marco Ricci
    Liberals are up in latest Leger poll. Nancy Charest could still have a shot, but the Liberal numbers will probably have to go up more.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    Normally this should be a safe Bloc riding, however last election the Liberals with Nancy Charest nearly won this and since it looks like she is running again, they may have a shot here. That is not to say the Bloc Quebecois won't hold this even with her running.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals almost won in a surprise in 2008. But since then, things have deteriorated for the Liberals in several ways. Ignatieff went from having good poll numbers in Quebec to low numbers and the provincial Liberals under Jean Charest are now less popular than they were in 2008. This creates a tough environment for Nancy Charest. She may also not be as well-remembered as an MNA as she was in 2008. The BQ don't have the advantage of incumbency which could help Nancy Charest, but the BQ has nominated the Mayor of Sainte-Flavie, Jean-François Fortin. It is probably true that Charest had a smaller team in 2008 and has a bigger one now in 2011. That is good for her, because she will probably need it because it will be tough to win unless the Liberal polls go up. The NDP and Conservatives may be up in Quebec, but they are probably not in contention in this riding. This should remain mainly a BQ-Liberal race.
    11 03 27 rebel
    A couple of polls (most importantly Ispos-Reid) suggest the Conservatives have crept up to 24% in Quebec, i.e. up to their 2006 levels, which should be sufficient for their incumbant MPs, including this one, to be re-elected with an outside chance of picking off a couple of Bloc seats like Gaspe.
    11 03 25 PAL
    Nancy was close in 2008 with a small team. Now she really active, have all money and over 3000 members active.
    11 03 23 David Swift
    With the Liberal poll numbers in Quebec tanking, either the NDP or Bloc will win. But I am confident the Bloc will win.
    10 10 24 R.O.
    I'm changing my prediction for the riding from bloc > too close to call. and i have several reasons for doing. first off Jean Yves Roy is quitting as mp and was reported to have been doing a horrible job and basically forced to quit by Gilles Duceppe . this move could force a by-election and the bloc do not always do good in by-elections even in seats they have held in every election since 1993. the conservatives have also stepped up efforts in the riding and Harper himself visited it last week for some announcements , they also have a strong candidate in Allen Cormier who has municipal experience in the riding. The liberals will also target this one as its one of the few rural seats in Quebec where they are actually competitive and Nancy Charest is coming back for another run but Quebec Premier Jean Charest isn't as popular anymore and that could hurt her. i don't know what else to say but it looks like it be an interesting race here .
    Je vais changer ma prédiction pour la circonscription de bloc> trop près de l'appel. et j'ai plusieurs raisons pour le faire. Tout d'abord Jean Yves Roy est de quitter en tant que député et a été signalé pour avoir fait un travail horrible et essentiellement contraint à l'abandon par Gilles Duceppe. cette démarche pourrait forcer une élection et le bloc ne sont pas toujours faire le bien dans les élections même dans les sièges qu'ils ont tenue à jamais des élections depuis 1993. Les conservateurs ont également redoublé d'efforts dans la circonscription et Harper lui-même a visité la semaine dernière pour des annonces, ils ont aussi une candidate solide dans Allen Cormier qui a l'expérience des municipalités de la circonscription. Les libéraux vont également cibler celui-ci comme l'un des quelques sièges en milieu rural au Québec où ils sont effectivement concurrentiel et Nancy Charest est de retour pour une autre course, mais le premier ministre québécois Jean Charest n'est pas aussi populaire plus et qui pourrait lui faire du mal. Je ne sais pas quoi dire d'autre mais il semble que ce soit une course intéressante ici.
    09 12 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This is one of four Quebec ridings outside of the Montreal region where the Liberals have a prayer at winning (the others being Brome-Missiquoi, Gatineau and Pontiac). We're going to say Liberal for now since we have a very popular former MNA running for the liberals; the BQ incumbent isn't running (loss of incumbent advantage); sponsor-gate is being a distant memory and federalist voters are beginning to return to the Liberals; MMe Charest has federal electoral experience (coming VERY close in '08 in a VERY bad year for Liberals); the conservatives will be focused elsewhere, knowing that they can not win this riding, they won't waste much resources in a riding that doesn't help advance them to their majority; Liberals will be focused here because they CAN win this riding and it makes more sense to target here, rather than tilting at windmills in other ridings that will only result is a weakend bloc with no liberal victory. Calling this TCTC is not unreasonable and we might change our opinion in an actual election but we'd hedge our bet and say Liberal pick up.
    09 09 22 Jacques P.
    Mme Charest ne pourra remporter le comt?, car le candidat vedette qu'a d?nich? le Bloc est trop fort et bien appr?ci?. M. Fortin (Jean-Fran?ois)du Bloc qu?b?cois est une bou?e de sauvetage inattendue pour le parti de Gilles Duceppe.
    Avec un comt? qui a presque bascul? du c?t? des lib?raux lors de la derni?re ?lection (2008), parce que le d?put? du Bloc Jean-Yves Roy n'?tait pas pr?sent sur le territoire, M. Fortin est certainement l'une des meilleures recrues du Bloc au Qu?bec avec une r?putation (il est maire de Sainte-Flavie et professeur de sciences politiques) qui d?passe les fronti?res r?gionales. Il arrive tout juste au bon moment pour renverser la tendance. Une victoire du Bloc par 2500 votes.
    09 09 09 MV
    Due to Charest popularity (and the fact that she had strong scores provincially for the Liberals in a PQ fort in 2003 and 2007) this one will go Liberal by about 2000 votes as the federalist vote outside of Montreal have a tendency to go to one party against the Bloc.
    09 09 06 R.O.
    Going to make what some might view as a surprising prediction here but i think the bloc are going to hold this one. i'm basing that mostly on the ridings solid history of voting for the bloc since 1993 and i also think the new bloc candidate Jean Francois Fortin is going to help them not hurt them oddly enough as Jean Yves Roy maybe took it for granted last time. o8 was also not the first time the liberals almost won the riding , they also almost won in 2000 but it went strongly bloc again due to sponsorship scandal and same liberal who almost won ran again but lost will history repeat itself only time will tell.
    Va faire ce que certains pourraient considérer comme étant une prédiction surprenante ici, mais je pense que le Bloc va tenir celle-ci. Je suis baser que sur la plupart des circonscriptions tradition bien établie de droit de vote pour le Bloc depuis 1993 et je pense aussi que le nouveau bloc candidat Jean Francois Fortin va les aider à ne pas blesser assez curieusement que Jean Yves Roy Peut-être qu'il a pris pour acquis la dernière fois . o8 n'était pas non plus la première fois, les libéraux ont presque gagné la circonscription, ils ont presque gagné en 2000 mais il a ensuite fortement bloc de nouveau à cause de scandale des commandites et les mêmes libéraux qui se présente de nouveau presque gagné, mais perdu ne l'histoire se répéter que le temps nous le dira.
    09 09 05 Marco Ricci
    I don't know if I would say that this is an ‘easy Liberal pickup’, but it is obviously one the Liberals now have a very strong chance of winning. Nancy Charest is running again for the Liberals after coming within 600 votes of winning last time, and the incumbent BQ MP is retiring. Those are factors in the Liberals' strength.
    However, last time the BQ was taken by surprise here and did not know they could lose the seat since no one was predicting it as a Liberal-BQ race. Now the BQ is aware of this riding and is not planning to let it go without a fight. They have nominated Jean-François Fortin, the mayor of Sainte-Flavie, as their new candidate. Therefore, both parties have strong names running for them.
    Since the Liberals are now higher in Quebec under Ignatieff than they were under Dion, I would give an edge to Nancy Charest since she almost won when the Liberals were lower.
    09 08 26 Paul Tremblay
    Nancy Charest will be the Liberal candidate once again this year. She is extremely popular in the riding and she came very close to winning in 2008 despite the fact that the riding has always voted for the Bloc since 1993. Did I mention that the incumbent Bloc MP is not running this time ?
    Easy Liberal pickup.
    11 04 28 Stéphane Gaudet
    Un très vieux sondage (6 au 13 avril) mené dans Gaspésie-les Iles et Haute-Gaspésie vient d'être publié pour le journal Graffici et donne une confortable avance au Bloc. Dans ce comté-ci, c'est 49 % pour le candidat bloquiste, 24 % pour Nancy Charest et 15% pour le conservateur. Aucune mention du NPD. C'était avant la vague orange, on ne doit pas trop s'y fier... Mais cette région un peu isolée, tout comme l'Abitibi d'ailleurs, a tendance à résister aux vagues d'engouement pour les ‘nouveaux’ partis (ex: l'ADQ) et à rester fidèle aux partis traditionnels. Le BQ perd certainement des votes au NPD ici aussi, mais probablement pas autant que dans le sud de la province. C'est pourquoi je maintiens finalement ma prédiction pour une victoire bloquiste dans ce comté. La popularité personnelle de Mme Charest n'est pas suffisante pour renverser une tendance largement défavorable aux libéraux dans le Québec francophone.

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