Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:30:00

Constituency Profile


Cameron, Tania

Chicago-Boucher, Kelvin

Rickford, Greg

Schwindt, Mike

Valley, Roger

Greg Rickford

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kenora-rainy-river (141/191 Polls)
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  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 R.B.
    It looks like this will be closer than I thought it would be but I'm still guessing what I thought at first, the NDP will take this seat. Howard Hampton and the NDP are incredibly popular here provincially. The NDP has always taken a popular stance on mining, lumber and workers and unions in general. They also have a candidate with a first nations background and have always done well in first nations communities. Their literature looks good and they seem sincere. If anything the Liberals have lost support since the last election, and a lot of those votes (like mine) are definitely going to the NDP column. I think the Conservatives who have historically not done well here at all (just the one win, the last time around) will also lose support. The anti-Liberals vote seems to solidly belong to the NDP and a growing percentage of the ‘anyone but Harper’ vote will be going to them too. A lot of people seems to want to elect NDP as well as a female and/or first nations candidate. Could be wrong though judging by other posts here it must be closer than I thought, and only election day will tell us for sure! That said, everyone go out and vote no matter who you support because that's the best way to elect the right candidate!
    11 05 01 NJam101
    I originally predicted that the NDP candidate Tania Cameron would win. I'm going to guess that she will win and that it will be very close. Why? I don't believe that Rickford will gain any more votes. The turnout last time was low and I'm betting that more younger and aboriginal people will be voting. Jack Layton seems to be a big factor and is likely making those who don't always vote want to vote. The NDP candidate is an aboriginal woman in a riding where aboriginals make up at least 40% of the population. This time the NDP has a chance of becoming the next government. I don't see it staying Conservative if the Conservatives may not be forming the next government. This will likely wake up a lot of people. This is not a traditional Conservative riding. Rickford is the only Conservative to have won here and it was with about 40% of the votes. Liberal Roger Valley's campaign is falling apart according to many and getting desperate. The NDP normally gets about 30% of the votes here with a half-decent turnout. Usually about 7000-8000 votes. Last time Rickford received 9395 votes The NDP will also be pulling away a good chunk of Liberal support. Even if about a third of Liberal supporters move to the NDP it will be enough for Cameron to win. Will it add up to enough to win as long as voter turnout is higher? I think it will. It also hasn't hurt that MPP Howard Hampton has been campaigning with Cameron. The City of Kenora will likely vote big time Conservative like before but not other towns and First Nations. It is Northern Ontario and the Conservative Party is not a natural fit for the area.
    11 04 30 John
    It is definately looking like Rickford will win. Valley's attempt to go Negative in Kenora has backfired. The local paper wrote an editorial slamming him for putting up negative signs all over town.
    11 04 28 keefr
    In a recent CBC poll, Kenora was one of the top ten most anti-gun control ridings in the entire country.
    It may tighten up a bit, but I predict a Conservative hold.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    Fun fact: according to CBC's vote compass, this is one of the most anti-gun-registry ridings in the country.
    11 04 22 PWO
    I believe this could be a very interesting vote if more of the 41% First Nation voters turn out to vote. The Conservatives should not win a lot of votes with First Nations with the scrapping of the ‘Kelowna Accord’ and with the very cotroversial ‘Bill S-11’. The privatization of First Nation's water and extinguishment of First Nation's rights to water that are in Bill S-11: could see First Nation voters in record numbers this election. The NDP has probably the strongest platform for First Nations with the Liberals following behind; and Tania and Roger have had good relations with area First Nations. If the First Nations know the issues and turn out, their votes could make a difference. It was a close vote last time, so you never know!
    11 04 21 Joolfs
    This riding has been Liberal forever. The last election had exceptional circumstances, mostly being the leader Dion, and his unpopular Green Shift plan, which adversely effected our riding. The Liberal voters just stayed home. This time, they will be out in record numbers because they were all suprised that the Conservative candidate won. Also, the NDP are worried about Harper, and I predict they will vote strategically and support the Liberals this time round. I predict a Liberal victory
    11 04 20 politico
    Questions over Rickford's residency abound. At a recent all-candidates meeting he claimed that he didn't vote in the last municipal election because he was in Ottawa that day. He was speechless when it was pointed out that he was not on any voters list and, even if he was, it was a mail-in ballot and he could have voted prior to the election. A you-tube video of this exchange has gone viral. Coffee-shop talk has characterized him as a carpetbagger attempting to buy his way into cabinet with taxpayers' money. National trends make this a too close to call, but despite the remarks of hired Conservative spin-posters on this site, it won't be a cakewalk for Rickford.
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    This was traditionally a centre-left riding and certainly a stronger turnout amongst aboriginal voters as well as uniting behind one party may help this be more competitive, however the Tories have a few advantages. They dominate much of the Southern parts of the riding where the majority of people live and where voter turnout is more reliable. Greg Rickford has the incumbent advantage this time around and also the gun registry is wildly unpopular here and electing and only voting Tory can guarantee the MP will vote to scrap the gun registry.
    11 04 18 Kenora Voter
    Rickford will win the race with a margin of victory greater than in 2008. He has brought more dollars and ministers to the riding than any other MP in decades. Kenora riding voters are generally not fiscally conservative, at least when it comes to local concerns, strongly supporting government involvement in economic development through program spending and FEDNOR. Rickford has continued to push gov't involvement. A key example is federal support to twin Hwy 17 from the Manitoba border to Kenora - something that did not happen until Rickford's election despite decades of talk.
    The Conservatives have made the riding a priority given that it is their beachhead in Northern Ontario - an area where they hope to grow support. Notably, Rickford's 2008 win was the first Conservative or PC win in the riding's (previously Kenora-Rainy River) 80+ year history.
    Rickford has helped to make the riding one of the top beneficiaries of stimulus spending in Canada with much of this money being directed to first nations communities in areas from ice roads to recreation centres. First Nations voters, which make up over 40% of the riding's population, will continue to favour the Liberals, but Rickford's involvement in the North and recent appointment as Parl. Secretary to the Indian Affairs Minister will lower the Liberal plurarity there. The Conservatives' strong opposition to the gun registry also plays well throughout the riding.
    Prediction: Rickford 46%, Valley 28%, NDP 23%, Green 3%
    11 04 11 John
    I think it will be a close race, but rickford will win. Roger is trying hard to win the northern communities but some will vote conservative and the rest will split between him and Tania Cameron. The Chief from Fort Severn ran a strong endorsement for Rickford about a month ago. Valley as well has written off Kenora. He has few signs in the community.
    11 04 10 Drydener
    Although it seems that the City of Kenora will be a close race, Dryden appears to be going back to Roger Valley. He was a good MP and a good mayor of Dryden. Word is that he will retake Red Lake and Sioux Lookout. This would lead the Liberals to a close victory not unlike the elections of 04 and 06.
    11 04 10 joey joe joe
    Roger Valley who won the seat twice may take this back for the Liberals with the NDP vote decline but its not for sure.
    11 04 07 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    No, that last Conservative prediction didn't sound partisan at all. No doubt Greg Rickford has worked hard. The question with regards to the native community is not did the MP actually bring the parade of ministers to the riding but rather was the first nations communities actually watching. Most likely the answer was no as most voters don't pay all that much attention until election time. It's not aboput what was done/said, it's all about optics and preceptions.
    11 04 06 RDoyle
    Are you serious you guys. Greg Rickford won this riding because he worked hard. He also was able to get many aboriginal votes because he has worked both as a nurse and as a lawyer in many of these first nation communities. Also he has knocked on many doors within many of the communities in the Kenora riding. He has brought many High profile Conservative Cabinet Ministers to the region (Jim Prentice, Jim Flaherty, Jason Kenney and much more)including the Prime Minister on more then 1 occasion. Not bad for a rookie MP. He also as a rookie MP became the Parliamentary Secretary for Official language. Then moved on to become Parliamentary Secretary for Ministery of Indian and Northern Affairs. So he will do a lot more for many of the First Nations people that not only live here within the great Kenora riding but Aboriginal people from all over Canada. So without a doubt Greg Rickford will be re-elected by a LARGE margin.
    11 04 07 Northern Voter
    There is evidence that native voters are very engaged in this election. Roger Valley has been very active in NAN and Treaty 3 communities. There is much activity on his Facebook page. We appreciate his visits. There are many more First Nation voters in this election -- the fastest growing population in the Kenora riding. The NDP's Tanya Cameron, although she is native, is falling flat. Rickford's conservatives offer nothing but cuts. Native voters will go Liberal in force.
    11 04 05 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Point of information: in the days of the divided right, this riding leaned much more Reform/Alliance than it did PC. In 1993, Reform took over 13% more than Reform, nearly 10% in 2000, and 16% in 1997. Where the new Conservative party does do well, are in areas where Reform/Alliance did. That tells me that this riding may well be much stronger in this area than historic PC results would lead some to believe.
    11 04 05 NJam101
    At this point it is difficult to predict. It is also so hard to believe that a Conservative actually won here considering it is Northern Ontario and a riding with a large aboriginal population. My guess is that nobody will get more than 40% of the votes and it will be almost a three-way race.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    Favours the Tories, however a strong turnout by aboriginal voters who make up 1/3 of the riding and overwhelmingly vote either Liberal or NDP could allow either party to retake this provided the vote unites around one party. The biggest difficulty though will be the gun registry which is deeply unpopular in this riding and only with a Tory MP can one be sure they will vote in favour of scrapping it. At this point, I think the Tories have the edge and unless either the NDP or Liberals can get some serious momentum, this should probably stay Tory.
    11 03 27 Shoreluncher
    This riding will likely return to the Liberals when the hundreds of voters who sat out the last election return to the polls. Voter turnout dropped by 11 percent in 2008. Liberals voters are encouraged by their new leader. Greg Rickford has been ridiculed locally as Winnipeg Greg because he lives in Winnipeg. He has never lived in the riding and has never been registered to vote here municipally, although he goes around telling people that Kenora is his home town. Rickford has also been throwing money at first nation voters, but they have much more respect for Liberal candidate Roger Valley. Mr. Valley was born and raised in the Kenora constituency, has made his living as a trapper-fisherman, and as a former MP earned the admiration of native peoples.
    11 03 26 Jerscape
    For years I commented that the the Conservatives were the most likely to take this one from the Liberals and in 2008, I was proven right. The REALITY is that the NDP have only ever won this riding ONCE (1984) and only beat the Conservative by around 800 votes. The NDP incumbent (Parry) then LOST in an election where the NDP had their best historical showing to date and where the adjacement Thunder-Bay Atikokan riding remained NDP. While I agree this is NOT a safe Conservative seat and would place this in the ‘too close to call’ column, the only real way the NDP can win this is if the Liberal vote collapses Nationally (which is very well might). It is worth pointing out that even while the NDP swept the rest of Northern Ontario last time, Kenora bucked the trend. Alot of people keep referencing it being held by Howard Hampton, but unless Howard himself runs, that doesn't count for munch. That said, it is POSSIBLE, but as I mentioned above, it will all depend on the national trend.
    11 03 26 G.P.
    Rickford should win easily here. Valley was a lightweight as an MP while Rickford has proven himself to be a high profile hard working MP who has gotten results.
    Rickford works well with the first nations and has gotten more infrastructure/other funding for the Kenora riding in two and a half years than Valley ever did.
    Just look at some of the accomplishments with regards to infrastructure: four laning of highway to Manitoba, Dryden wastewater treatment plant, Kenora receiving more infrastructure funding than any other municipality its size in Canada according to the Globe and Mail.
    10 02 11 NJam101
    The reality is that this riding has ever only voted in a Conservative candidate ONCE and that was in the last election. Rickford's victory took many in Northern Ontario by surprise with about 40% of the ballots cast. Conservative support in Northern Ontario is very minimal and only concentrated in small pockets. One of those pockets is the City of Kenora and the largest community in the riding. This is where much of the CPC vote came from. The Liberal and NDP candidates won the parts of the rest of the riding. Yes, Kenora has more association with Winnipeg and Manitoba than with the rest of the region in which it lies, Northwestern Ontario and the province as a whole. The association with Manitoba does have an influence on voters.
    Now you're probably wondering why I'm predicting Rickford will be defeated. I believe that the low voter turnout last time will not happen in the next election. Many people underestimate the aboriginal population in the riding who favour the Liberals and increasingly the NDP big time. Aboriginals will turn out in greater numbers if issues like the HST and First Nation funding get heated. Rickford received virtually no votes in First Nations and isolated communities in the first place. He is much more popular in ?urban? Kenora and Dryden than rural areas. I'm betting the NDP candidate will win because both CPC and LPC support is declining across Northern Ontario due to the crises in forestry and mining. Many voters are looking at somewhere to park their votes to demand change to both the Ontario and federal governments. This region last voted 60% for the NDP's Howard Hampton provincially.
    10 02 06 R.O.
    The reality is this riding has alot of liberal history to it and only been a couple of recent elections where it had not gone liberal . but thats only history and i'm not really sure how much that helps out the liberals in any future campaign here. i think there is also usually a significant incumbent advantage in a northern ontario rural riding as well which helps out Greg Rickford . of course Roger Valley was also mp from 04 till 08 so he's better known in the riding than say a new liberal candidate might be but he's rather low profile in terms of what he did in ottawa when he was actually an mp so i'm not sure he brings anything to an election campaign that could give the liberals an advantage here . and lets not forget the long gun registry is unpopular here so that helps out the conservatives and has been an issue that's been part of the federal scene in such ridings for a number of years and has generally hurt the liberals in such rural ridings. like if you look back to 2000 election here so will see the canadian alliance did very well here and only lost by 5000 votes then which wasn't that bad when considering how high profile Rob Nault was at the time. of course the ndp are a factor here as well and did well in 08 in most of the other northern ontario ridings but this one borders manitoba so maybe has some manitoba influence and not exactly as much northern ontario to it as the rest. and the reality is Tania cameron needs to make up a huge gap between what she got in 08 and what the liberals and conservative got to be truly competive here
    09 12 29 PSmith
    Rickford started off with an advantage in 2009, but the first-time MP has been outside of the riding handing out goodies in neighbouring ridings and trying to score political points for the governing Conservatives.
    The bigger place where he's neglected the home fires comes from visibly defending and voting for the HST. Kenora is arguably the Northern Ontario riding with the most expensive gas, heating and other costs for voters, and they are more opposed to the HST than most other ridings in Ontario or even BC. The substantial First Nations population won't likely forget the HST soon either. There will be some price to pay for that at the polls.
    This riding is still TCTC.
    09 11 30 A.S.
    Factoring out geography and his own political fatigue, I suspect Howard Hampton *would* have been able to win here, and if it were an open seat maybe a la Jack Harris or at least Charlie Angus--but that's all academic now. Anyway, the Tories finally have their long-hoped-for Northern Ontario beachhead, and perhaps semi-bluffed into it through the extrapolated symbolism of their 2006 second place finish--and given that we're next door to and practically integral with Manitoba, it's worth noting the recent Tory record in the Prairies of holding on real tight once they score a seat. But this isn't the Prairies, it's Northern Ontario--but, still. And who knows how many mandate-reinforcing ‘Aglukkaq Tories’ have been awakened, if that's a factor at all, that is...
    09 10 04 Muskie
    Roger Valley has been maintained a high profile in this riding, particularly on the Greyhound transportation file. Liberals who withheld their votes in 2008 will likely support him next time.
    09 09 20 Swift
    The Conservatives have an extremely good record of increasing their margin of victory once they finally win a riding. This will add to that record unless Hampton is running. If Hampton runs it will be a close race between the NDP and the Conservatives, with a slight advantage for the blue.
    09 09 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    So who stayed home in the last election in Kenora? We have 3992 fewer votes cast in '08 vs '06. We have the CPC up 960 votes, the Liberals down 2600 votes, the Greens up 400 votes and the NDP down 2750 votes. It really seems like both Liberal and NDP voters stayed home last time. This will make it a very interesting race and we should all watch and see who each party chooses and how things unfold during the campaign
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    I'm not sure why there are a couple of NDP predictions on here as this riding is likely to be a Conservative-Liberal contest. The fact that the NDP finished 3rd in this riding in a year in which they swept through most of Northern Ontario probably means they won't be in contention here this time around either.
    But it won't necessarily be easy for former Liberal MP Roger Valley to win either - as is the case in the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, the Liberals lost here by about 8 or 9 points. That gap will take some work to close and Greg Rickford is making a name for himself in the House of Commons as a new, young member of the Harper government.
    But because this riding was an aberration last year in that it went Conservative for the only the first or second time in history, that does make it one the Conservatives can't take for granted either.
    09 09 05 Observer
    A small swing from the Conservatives can defeat the Conservatives. And this riding is one of the most likely to swing.
    09 08 30 R.O,
    The talk of Howard Hampton running here is pure nonesense as he does not even live in the riding as his federal home riding would actually be Thunder Bay Rainy River as he is from Fort Frances and that riding is already ndp , plus the ndp with Jack layton in attendance has already nominated a candidate here that being Tania Cameron. so i'm pretty sure we already know who the 3 main candidates will be here. but from what i read out of the riding it has enjoyed having a government member and a lot of federal funding and fednor projects have came here now that conservative Greg Rickford is mp. well former liberal mp Roger Valley is running again he hasn't in the last year been able to accomplish the kinds of things Rickford has done when in government. for now i'm going to say the new mp has the advantage here although its a tough one to call.
    09 08 29 JB
    Rickford should easily retain his seat here. Lately he's been making a lot of federal funding announcements within both the Kenora and Thunder Bay regions. He's the government's sole voice for northwestern Ontario.
    09 08 27 PY
    It's actually a three-way race as former MP Roger Valley was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate. Those who stayed home in the last election won't have an excuse now...but then again, perhaps Rickford might pull it off and hold it. Then again, I'm not so sure.
    09 08 26 Smok Wawelski
    Observer, I will agree with you that if Howard Hampton runs, Dippers win, but failing that, it is not likely to happen.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Despite running a different candidate than '04 and '06, the Tories were able to knock off an incumbent here. They're not going to give up this northern Ontario seat. They'll want to use it as a springboard to neighboring ridings, and will devote many resources here. Rickford should hold it.
    09 08 25 NorthernRaven
    Since Tania Cameron was nominated to run for the NDP, so it being unlikely for Howard Hampton to run. Rickford will take the riding because Kenora will choose to send a candidate to the government side of the house, which will likely show that the CPC will win at least with a minority. Combined with the fact many non-voters were awoken from previous elections will show up to vote for the Conservatives, by the suggestion of a potential NDP-Lib Coalition, this close riding should go to Rickford.
    09 08 24 Observer
    Although it seems the NDP has already nominated Tania Cameroon as candidate, it is possible that former Ontario NDP leader and current MPP for Kenora, Howard Hampton, runs in this riding next election. If that happens, just add another constituency for the NDP in northern Ontario with a landslide victory for Mr. Hampton. It will be similar to Jack Harris win in St. John's (NL) in 2008.
    11 04 28 pitcher
    There is a wave coming and this will be a win for Layton. The anger from the large native population is going to help a great deal. Take a look at the advance poll numbers and it's clear the NDP have this seat ‘in the box’ already.

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