Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Ottawa West-Nepean

Prediction Changed
2011-04-23 11:47:00

Constituency Profile


Baird, John

MacKenzie, Mark

Rivier, Marlene

Vandenbeld, Anita

Hon. John Baird

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • nepean-carleton (2/207 Polls)
  • ottawa-west-nepean (237/237 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 29
    Well it is official PSAC endorses Anita Vandenbeld , Liberal Candidate, and also some of the Nortel pensioners, students, teachers from the college, middle class who lost their jobs are now looking at voting for Anita.
    I think this riding should be changed to too close to call now because the riding has a lot of public servants, students, etc who are now voting Liberal.
    Plus, Mr.Baird is being cutdown left right ans center on twitter in the riding.
    11 04 25 jrcatch22
    I would not assume that John Baird has Ottawa-West Nepean sewn up. There are many ex-Nortel people living in this riding who feel that John Baird has not given them any representation. In addition there are many public servants who are worried about potential job cuts by the Conservatives.
    11 04 25 Initial
    It's not just in the House that Baird displays his ideological and bullying attitude, it is really clear in the householder mailings we receive. There may well be people in the riding who like him a lot, but there are many others who loathe him. Anita Vandenbeld is a competent, credible candidate, and I think many people who may not support the Liberal Party will vote for her just to get rid of him.
    11 04 24 Jon Reid
    I am shocked to see so many people posting Liberal wins in OWN. As someone who attends Carleton University and has been on the campaign trail in OC and OWN, I assure you all this is a Conservative lock. In fact, this will be a 10 point win for JB. He's got an incredibly well oiled machine and though he is a bulldog in the House of Commons (which not many know unless they watch QP or see the rare brief news clips), he is very gentle when approaching voters and other everyday citizen. Not to mention his visibility and signage on main roads dwarfs Anita's. This one is a CPC lock.
    11 04 22 HL
    You could certainly feel the swaying vote at the polls today...will definitely be an interesting week! A lot of upset Nortel people who were voting early.
    11 04 21 LC
    The fact that many public servants live in OWN this will be a very difficult election for JB. The fact that a number or constituents have tried to contact Mr. Baird for assistance and that they never received a response will make it a difficult battle for him to win this time again.
    The Nortel decision will be one of his biggest battles as the spokesperson for the PM and how they allowed the destruction of the lives of the Nortel pensioners.
    11 04 21 MH
    My bad: Jim Flaherty, not John Baird, is Minister of Finance. Baird is Government Leader in the House of Commons. Since he was President of the Treasury Board he is firmly associated with the government's fiscal and spending policies. This will probably hurt more than help him in this riding.
    11 04 21 Jocelyne C.
    I know some diehard NDPs who are vowing to support Liberal in the riding, so the strategic voting could well pan out for Vandenbeld here. Some former CPC supporters have changed their minds also, those who are not just toeing the party line and are disappointed with the actions of the leadership.
    Unfortunately for Baird, he has been the mouthpiece of the leader a lot and that could well affect his support. Defeating him would definitely disarm the conservative leader, losing one of his strongest battle horses. Some voters are thinking in those terms, from what I have heard. I think it will be very close, but that strategic voting could tip the balance in favour of the liberal. I am not affiliated to any party.
    11 04 21 tabhairteach
    If ever there was a constituency made for strategic voting, it would have to be this one. With Jack encouraging his troops to believe they can form a government [yup] Baird can start putting this one back in the fold. A shame too. Anita clearly the better candidate.
    11 04 20 MH
    This race should prove interesting to watch on election night. John Baird has the inside track and ought to win, but he is not exactly Prince Charming, and as Minister of Finance he has a lot of enemies. In 2008 his margin of victory was slightly lower than in 2006, unusual for a Conservative in Ontario. If the public-servant vote goes against him and a couple of thousand NDippers vote Liberal, he will probably lose his seat.
    11 04 18 Catwoman 38
    Well, the riding has a lot of unhappy public servants who either work at the City, or at the federal level who are worried about losing their jobs from Harper's planned cuts. Plus, when the economic recession hit a lot of manufacturing jobs and they went out the door in Kanata, and lots of people live in this riding that worked at Nortel, and other companies . Plus, there is issues with pensions, and people are worried about healthcare, and education. Also, now the city of Ottawa is making cuts from Harper cuts. From affordable housing, sex-ed programs for the youth, lack of services for immigrants, students, seniors, etc.
    11 04 18 CE
    If the Libs can hit 30% nationally, and more importantly stay on top in Ontario, I think Vandenbeld takes this seat. She is running a great campaign, her visibility is fantastic, and there is a real anti-Baird sentiment in the riding, even among the Conservative base. His credibility has certainly been tarnished enough since 08.
    11 04 18 Matt
    OWN is a swing riding. When the Conservatives eventually lose government, this riding will swing the other way. That's not happening this election. This seat is safe for another election.
    11 04 18 SouthpawPundit
    The NDP's too strong for the Liberals to squeeze their vote and take seats like this from the Tories. Baird stays.
    11 04 17 Jim d
    Not from the riding, but have a long time NDP relative working on Liberal team. I think the gap is closing and maybe the voters will rise up and get rid of Baird.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    This has been competitive in the past two elections, but lets remember than in 2004, the Tories came within two points when the Liberals had an incumbent and the Tories performed poorly in Ontario. The combined CA + PC vote also would have easily taken this in 2000. So it seems both parties have a strong base, but a rather small swing vote. Also John Baird is a very high profile Tory that they would not want to lose and the Liberals despise him so the fact neither party a national level has put a lot of resources into this riding suggests it is really not in play. Ottawa-Orleans seems to be where the Liberals are putting the most resources into thus if they pick up any Ottawa area ridings it would be this one.
    11 04 16 John Doe
    Even if the Liberal campaign is well run, they don't have much of a chance here. The Liberals aren't really up in the polls, the polls keep fluctuating within a 2 or 3 margin. There hasn't been a real move towards anyone. Lots of campaigns get good news and many are well run. Unfortunately, those aren't the main factors in a winning election, especially a short one like this. Both history and the Liberal's mediocre performance in the national campaign sink this one for Baird.
    11 04 15 Bill Ross
    The Ottawa Magazine article on this riding is good.
    I'd say from looking at signs, online activity, and news coverage that Vandenbeld is running a solid campaign, I wouldn't bet on Baird.
    11 04 15 AN
    While canvasing it is clear that the riding is not yet decided. The number of voters who are unsure and looking for more information is very high. There are also a number of Conservative who really don't like Baird. As such, I'd say the riding is in play.
    11 04 15 macfleur
    Seeing lots of Anita Vandenbeld in the eastern part of the riding.
    There is also a third-party group called Catch22Campaign which has targeted Ottawa West-Nepean as a riding where New Democrats and Greens are being approached and asked to vote strategically to unseat Baird. I expect the Public Service vote to move more towards the Liberals this time, the question will be the senior vote. This may depend on Nortel and other pension issues.
    I think it will be very tight. Possibly leaning Liberal.
    11 04 10 John
    The latest Nanos poll puts the Liberals slightly ahead in Ontario as of April 9th. Baird's seat is still venerable and I firmly believe that this should be too close to call, but I still believe based on how active the Liberals are in this campaign and how competitive they are in Ontario, they MAY take this seat.
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    TCTC to CPC? Properly a correct prediction change. The Liberals had a star candidate, they likely will not get as much attention. However NDP and Green support is being devoured by the Liberals in Ontario and in '06 Farsnworth was able to get almost as much support as Pratt and made it fairly close. Then there's the '08 sitouts. No, we'll be a little more cautious and still say TCTC but it's Baird's to lose.
    11 04 08 Marco Ricci
    The Liberal numbers appear to be up in Ontario, but in order to win here against an incumbent Conservative cabinet minister, I think they need to go up further in Ontario AND have a star candidate. The Liberals need a bigger name then the one they are running here in order to take down John Baird.
    11 04 05 macfleur
    Agree that it will be tight between Anita Vandenbeld and John Baird. Two things make it tight. One is the number of Liberal supporters who stayed away last time. Will they continue to do so? Since the last election, Public Servants have been vilified even more by the government. I am told from some Public Servants that Executives (Director and up) have been told they cannot, nor can their families, have lawn signs this election. The fear among the civil service may have Public Servants, voting quietly to change the government here.
    Second, I am told by a person who is volunteering with Anita Vandenbeld, that the campaign office launch last Sunday was so well attended, they spilled out heavily into the parking lot, and that her campaign office was not very modest either.
    Too close to call.
    11 04 03 Michael Fox
    The Liberals would have to pick up too much of the NDP and Green vote to be able to win. If they couldn't do it with David Pratt, they won't do it this time. Based on current regional polling levels, Baird will win this with close to 50% of the vote. If the Conservative take a dip in Ontario, this one could get close, but right now it's a Conservative lock.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    The Liberals would no doubt like to defeat John Baird but no easy proposition. In 2000, the Alliance + PC vote would have eclisped the Liberals while in 2004, the Conservatives came within two points of winning this thus the Tories have a strong base of 40% yet no matter how well they do, they cannot crack the 50% mark here. The Liberals also have a floor around 33% and a ceiling around 45% so although the Liberals could win this under the right conditions, this is the Conservatives to lose.
    11 04 01 James G
    Anita Vandenbeld has been running a very active campaign and has a solid team behind her. Baird seems to be taking the riding for granted. It'll be tough, but I think an upset could happen here.
    11 03 29 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Just because political animals like myself hate Baird does not mean he will lose his riding.
    11 03 28 R.O.
    One might wonder if the liberals were going after Baird not cause they though the riding was winnable but maybe just to force him to stay close to home , same is possible for other high profile non-liberals like Thomas Muclair. the seats don't really seem winnable for liberals at this time yet they've decided to go after these mp's. Anita Vandembeld is also a brand new candidate and not known politically for anything in Ottawa West Nepean and its possible this is more of a get to know you election than about actually becoming mp. there is lots of Public service buildings in the riding but not sure how many of them actually live and vote in the riding . Bob Chiarelli did hold the seat provincially but the federal race seems to be a totally different situation.
    11 03 26 Martin W
    Baird's penchant for bluster, hyperbole, and partisanship has overtaken his concern for local issues in the minds of many here, and his tenure as Conservative House Leader has done nothing to mitigate that perception. Unlike Pratt's campaign last time around, which got off to a late start, Anita Vandenbelt has been off the mark quickly here and she was meeting constituents weeks before the election call. The high proportion of disenchanted civil service in the riding bodes well for her chances. Rivier will again up the percentage of NDP vote here by at least 5%, in part because of Dewar's stellar performance as MP for Ottawa Centre, but the major shift will be from Conservative to Liberal.
    11 03 25 DW
    Much depends on whether the anti-Baird vote coalesces with Anita Vandenbeld of the Liberals. A number of New Democrats like Marlene Rivier but like Anita's energy and organization, and if there is a chance she can take Baird, some New Democrats appear ready to get behind her.
    Public Servants are dismayed with the government and with Baird, but the riding has one of the highest proportions of seniors in the country. Any missteps by Baird at all and thepoll may go to Vandenbeld.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    Baird hasn't built a fortress for himself in Ottawa West, unlike his colleague in Whitby-Oshawa. Given the right candidate in the right national campaign, the Liberals would surely gleefully throw in everything they can to bump him off. With the Tories at their current polling levels, he's safe. If they dip, he's in trouble.
    10 12 06 John Doe
    As much as I like the new Liberal candidate for this riding, I just can't see her beating Baird. After all, Baird is a longstanding federal minister and is frequently mentioned in newspapers. Lots of people know him. This does not bode well for the Liberal candidate, who has not had an interesting career and who has not done anything politically relevant. Combined with the lack of improvement for the liberals in the polls, it seems very unlikely that the Liberals will win here. I predict results very similar to the 2008 election.
    10 09 28 Ottawa insider
    Look, I think John B will take this riding, but it will be very close. Right now, none of the three candidates running for the Liberal nomination are impressive, in fact, they are decidedly NON-impressive. Let's take all three: 1. Anita Vandenbeld. She knows little about politics, is a poor speaker, and very few people show up to her rallies. 2. Ted Chartrand. Some unknown public servant who has absolutely no profile in the riding. 3. Mohammed Al-Qadry. He doesn't even have a website up and has hosted absolutely 0 events.
    Now, if John Baird were to run against any of these candidates he would slaughter them. Here's the thing. The Liberal party knows this. You think they are going to waste a possible pick-up riding on any of these candidates? No. In fact, I have it on good inside information that Liberal headquarters are not allowing the riding association to hold a nomination meeting until they find a ‘star’ candidate of the David Pratt variety to drop into Ottawa-West Nepean. I'm also told that no matter what happens they will force all three of these people to drop out and embrace someone who can actually win the riding.
    That's why I think this will be a close election. Libs will drop a star candidate in right before the election, and John B. will have a tough fight on his hands.
    10 09 17 binriso
    Honestly I think John Baird is an embarrassment, but he will probably win here though if Ontario is tied next election it might go Liberal red.
    10 02 13 R.O.
    Well its not like there wasn't reasons to put this one in the too close to call category but it should be noted that well the conservatives are down a bit in some polls and liberals doing better in ontario according to some . even in the latest ekos polls that showed the liberals doing well here in ontario , in Ottawa specifically they have the conservatives at 41 % and liberals at 38% and when considering the cpc be doing worse in the 3 ridings they don't hold here . i don't know but i'd say John Baird still has the advantage here if those numbers are accurate. there is also going to be a provincial by-election in this riding very soon and it may stay with the provincial liberals as there running former mayor Bob Chiarelli although the ontario pc's are running Beth Graham a community activist so it may turn out to be close in the end. but either way its not usually represented by the same parties at provincial and federal levels so i wouldn't make many conclusions based on this by-election and the future federal vote.
    10 02 11 Marco Ricci
    I agree with the comments of Bear and Ape. It's interesting that in the last 2 elections the vote spread between the Conservatives and the Liberals has remained the same in this riding - about 5,000 votes:
    It is also true that it is impressive that David Pratt was able to increase the Liberal vote in this riding by 2 points (from 34% to 36%) in an election in which the Liberal vote collapsed in Ontario. Baird was able to move up by 2 points as well (from 43% to 45%), but it could be argued that Baird should have won by more.
    At this moment, I would give a small advantage to Baird, but if polls remain close in Ontario as they are now, Baird will have to be careful. Pratt will need to pull several thousand votes away from the Conservatives and the NDP in this riding, but he has a shot at it.
    10 01 31 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    If we were pressured into making a decision now we'd say CPC keep, but there is no compelling reason to make a decision when there isn't even an imminent election. One needs to take a good hard look at how close this riding has been in the last two elections. No movement in the numbers between '06 and '08. However there was a sizable shift in Liberal votes overall in Ontario. What was different between '06 & '08 was the Liberal candidate. They ran a newbie in '06 (who did well, just not well enough) and then a political veteran in '08 (who did well when his party tanked in Ontario). Now David Pratt is running again and the CPC is in a virtual tie with the Liberals. This means that, for the moment, we have an interesting race. Advantage Conservatives but it is not for sure unless the CPC start picking up again.
    09 09 26 A.S.
    Re ‘Ottawa West is a more blue collar type of riding than an intellectual one’: actually, it's tended to be very middle class a la Etobicoke, and for it not to go Harris Blue in '95 was merely a product of urbanity and candidacy and local circumstance--besides, that's the former *provincial* riding of Ottawa West; the present federal seat (which includes Baird's first provincial constituency) *would* have gone Harris in '95. And please, folks, don't make too much of Baird ‘crushing’ Pratt in '08; given '08's Dion vs Harper campaign dynamics, that should have been all but a given despite whatever Pratt-camp bluster--in fact, I'm inclined to agree with the notion of Pratt actually doing quite surprisingly well, under the circumstances, and that was a curious, maybe portentous Ottawa-area phenomenon (also reflected in the bolstered Grit shares in OSouth and OVanier, and Marc Godbout holding his own a la Pratt in OOrleans). I'd argue that John Baird has every reason to look over his shoulder after the last result, because it went against the grain of conventional wisdom--all the more so as it's an urban seat, as urban as class of '06 Ontario CPC seats get. If Iggy gets traction, this is the perfect kind of target seat, and Baird's the perfect kind of target candidate, and Pratt's the perfect kind of Iggy-hawk to target said candidate. Now, *whether* there is or will be that kind of Iggy traction is another matter--but still, not so fast with automatically branding it a Tory slam-dunk...
    09 09 24 R.O.
    Its a rematch as has been mentioned previously. not really sure much has changed here since last year or any reason as to why John Baird does not still have the advantage here over David Pratt . the race here seems largely the same as before , we have a high profile cabinet minister running in a riding that has a history of being competitive. the conservative party minus a short period after the liberal leadership race is considerably ahead of the liberals in the polls. the liberals have a high profile candidate in a riding they once held but lost votes in since the years when they did alot better. there is simply little reason to assume much is going to change here at the moment. the ndp are even running the same candidate as before from what i've read.
    09 09 17 Eastern Ontario Values
    A re-match of last year's election, with David Pratt taking on John Baird again. Pratt tried an anti-Baird message last time, but it never really got traction, and he lost by the same 5,000 vote margin as the previous Liberal candidate. Looking at Pratt's website, he's still on an anti-Baird, anti-Poilievre bent, and judging from his back-to-back defeats (and by a bigger margin in the more Liberal-friendly Ottawa West riding in 2008) his sour grapes isn't a winning approach.
    The ?getting things done? message works better for Baird this time around, judging from all the infrastructure projects coming to the west end...so much so, that Liberal critic Gerard Kennedy complained in Parliament that too much was going to Ottawa, and they should get less! That position will help the Liberals in Toronto, but undermine Pratt locally. On the Nortel issue, so many people (including employees) had their retirements destroyed by present management - the though of giving the same group billions of dollars (especially with their dodgy accounting practices) was not supported by anyone but Iggy. The pensioner issue is important, but I daresay that both Pratt and Baird (who's been very involved with the issue) both feel the same way about it, and after all, it's the local Liberal Premier, Dalton McGuinty, who's ruled out stepping in for the pensioners (the Nortel pensions fall under provincial laws).
    Overall, Pratt's argument is weaker than last time, and being a two-time loser can't help. Iggy should go over better than Dion, but Ottawa West is a more blue collar type of riding than an intellectual one (note that it didn't go for Harris in '95, and only went for Gary Guzzo in '99 with the benefit of a vote split). It would take an Iggy majority to put Pratt over the top, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards...
    09 09 15 jbrill
    Pratt needs only to point to John's current record of ?getting it done for Ottawa?: 1) Sold 2 prime federal office complexes only to lease them back for 25 years (good deal if you can get it as the new owner!) 2) failed to intervene wrt Nortel where many of his constituents work(ed) 3) intervened wrt to lrt costing his constituents $37M 4) as Environment Minister was a laughing stock to the international community 5) as Transport Minister, sitting on a $10M scandal and 6) nobody believes for 1 minute he didn't scheme with Larry O wrt to Kilrea. The hiring of Larry O's new communication advisor shows the close link to the CPC's.
    09 08 26 DL
    I think Baird will lose. He didn't win by all that much last time and the Tories are likely to lose ground in Ontario compared to the last election. Also, a ton of public service employees live in this riding and for a federal civil servant to vote Tory is like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Baird's profile is too strong here. A 5,000 vote lead from '08 won't make it a runaway, but he'll hold it. Look for around 45% again from Baird.
    09 08 25 hatman
    This will probably go Conservative the way things are now, but the riding is a bellwether, and will vote for the party that forms government I believe. Provincially, it is held by Jim Watson, a Liberal, and in 2004 the Liberals won here with a minority.
    09 08 24 Sean P.F.
    So, Pratt did better then Lee Farnsworth did in 2006? Lets let the voters tell us:
    Lib 2006 (Farnsworth): 20,244
    Lib 2008 (Pratt): 20,161
    Pratt garner the Liberal Party a huge gain of... -87 votes.
    The only reason Pratt got 2% higher then Farnsworth did is because the NDP vote collapsed by 33% (9569 to 6432). Baird's vote stayed near the same (he lost only 498 Votes from 2006 to 2008).
    The Conservatives almost won this riding in 2004 running a nobody against the popular Liberal incumbant, Marlene Catterall. This riding leans Conservative due to its demographics, as OWN is the 2nd oldest riding in the country, behind Victoria. Seniors vote in blocks for whom they like. They like John Baird.
    Pratt can't win this riding. Baird will win again with similar numbers.
    09 08 23 B.O.
    No Sean P.F., Baird did not crush David Pratt in the last election. Baird beat Pratt by a fairly narrow margin. He won by 8.86%. Pratt had 36% of the vote. This was actually higher than the 34% 2006 Liberal candidate Lee Farnworth got. Pratt actually got a higher percentage of the vote under Dion's leadership than Farnworth got under Martin's leadership. And Pratt's increased percentage over Farnworth is even with the Liberals losing the popular vote in Ontario by 6 percentage points whereas when Farnworth ran the Liberals won the province by 5 points. Most Tory incumbents in Ontario first elected in 2006 expanded their margins by huge amounts in 2008. Baird was one of few Ontario Tory incumbents to see their margins shrink in 2008. Baird can't be all that popular if he hardly increased his vote percentage at all from 2006. Ottawa West-Nepean is quite a winnable riding for the Liberals and under the right circumstances the Liberals can win it. For now the riding is too close to call.
    09 08 21 Sean P.F.
    John Baird is visible and popular in his riding. He crushed David Pratt last time, and will do it again this election.
    11 04 28 George Macfleur
    Anita Vendenbeld is an amazing candidate. Every time she speaks in interviews of in front of people she seems to know so much of the issues, and the riding would be better represented by her. Marlene Rivier is not much too be seen, and if not for the NDP surge there would be enough strategic voting to put Anita over the top, and this comment would predict Liberal. It could still happen, but it will be more difficult, and I give the slight edge to the Cons.

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