Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-19 21:19:00

Constituency Profile


Crawford, Marie

Lang, Andrew

Layton, Jack

Mugnatto-Hamu, Adriana

von Koenig, Katarina

Hon. Jack Layton

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • beaches-east-york (13/211 Polls)
  • toronto-danforth (180/183 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 28 Danforther
    Sorry, LongVolunteer (I think you meant ‘Lang Volunteer’?), you can't be serious, even last week before the ‘NDP surge’ was obvious to all, no one in their right mind would put this in the Liberal column. This riding is NDP federally, NDP provincially, heck even has an NDP councillor at the City level who bucked the ‘Ford Nation’ wave last municipal election. Jack bumped off an entrenched incumbent in Dennis Mills quite a while ago now, and his vote margin has only increased from election to election since. Enough of this silliness, please.
    11 04 21 Not dilusional
    Jack will hold this with a substantially increased majority. His campaign is superior, and the liberal support is dropping due to desperate tactics at the door.
    11 04 21 Riverdale resident
    @Long-time volunteer,
    If you seriously think the Liberals have any chance in this riding, you are completely deluded. Look at the polls. Look at the national popularity of Jack Layton. Look at the huge majority of Layton signs all across the riding.
    The only interesting race here is whether the Greens, who are working hard, can beat the Conservatives for 3rd. I think they have a decent chance.
    11 04 20 LongVolunteer
    Door knocking in riding for Liberal Candidate Andrew Lang seeing lots of NDP signs for Jack but lots of people willing to take our signs and say the NDP sign just showed up. They have no intention of voting NDP. Identified support seems to be on the uptick. This may not be the win Jack thinks. This race seems far from over. Most people think they should vote Liberal
    11 04 15 John
    Just read an article in the online Globe and Mail saying Jack Layton is back in his groove. Also, Nanos indicates he is seen as the better leader than Ignatieff. Both indicators that suggest he will keep this seat on election day.
    11 04 05 Tony Ducey
    This may be Layton's last election as NDP leader, expect the voters to give him a going away gift in a victory in this riding.
    11 04 02 Michael Fox
    Walking around this riding, I see more NDP signs than anything else. By far. The NDP team is on top of this one. I'm quite sure that as long as Jack Layton is the candidate here, this will be an NDP hold.
    11 03 29 C.A.B.
    Jack Layton has never exactly won by landslide margins, but he's still safe here. And if it appears for one second that he isn't, the famous NDP machine will rally round. Given his health concerns, it's likely that this will be Layton's last campaign, so imagine the riding will be a lot more interesting next time.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Regardless of how the NDP does nationally, I suspect Jack Layton will hold his own riding. He has held it since 2004 and most polls suggest the NDP will even in the worst case scenario do better than 2004.
    11 03 28 MH
    Jack Layton won by 7,000 votes last time. He is still the party leader, and as if that were not enough, he will also pick up the sympathy vote. This is the one GTA riding that is definitely in the NDP fold.
    11 03 25 WAC
    Since Jack Layton didn't run for Mayor of Toronto as Gone Fishing suggested, can we all agree that this is a pretty safe seat? Mmmmmmk?
    09 09 29 Gone Fishing
    Jack Layton will step aside to run for Mayor of Toronto.
    Not IF, I am predicting He WILL step aside thus avoiding for a long while an election by giving his party a chance to find another leader or play footsies with a unite the progressive movement whatever that is.
    Who knows what happens here. There is a lot of rumble that even Toronto is turning blue in the polling but it's inconclusive and only an idiot would call it blue. As partisan as I am - I am no idiot.
    If Jack walks the plank look for a real star candidate from the Liberals. It could be the most hotly contested seat in Toronto.
    09 09 02 MF
    Jack Layton will have no trouble getting re-elected in the NDP stronghold of Danforth. The Liberals don't pose a serious challenge here - all they offer are very weak candidates and silly publicity stunts.
    09 08 31 A.S.
    Layton's predecessor Dennis Mills was a phenomenon unto himself; he skewed the ‘heavily Liberal’ picture as much as Layton skews the ‘heavily NDP’ picture. And re NDP ‘strongest in the city’, remember that through the AudreyAlexa years it was Trinity-Spadina wearing that mantle (though the picture may now be skewed away by heavy condo development). Either way, Layton looks to be safe; but at a titch below 45% (his lowest yet as leader), nothing should be taken for granted. And interestingly, that Toronto pattern: what green-shifted most noticeably away from Layton was the urban-yuppie hard-Riverdalean Carrot-Common-zone vote...
    09 08 27 Observer
    Toronto Danforth is heavily Liberal. If Jack Layton wasn't the party leader, it would stay Liberal.
    09 08 18 Nick J Boragina
    Despite attempts last election by the owners of a blog called ‘where is Jack Layton’ to defeat the NDP leader, Layton was able to walk to another victory in this riding. This riding is, in fact, the strongest NDP riding in the city, with or without Layton, and with him will be another easy victory weather or not the NDP even breaks 10% in the province. The only way this will change is if both the Liberals and NDP start polling as they did in teh 1990s in the province.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster