Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:07:00

Constituency Profile


Maloway, Jim

Niemczyk, Ilona

Toet, Lawrence

Young, Ellen

Jim Maloway

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • winnipeg-transcona (173/178 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The NDP support in the praries are up by about 7 points relative to '08. The Liberals are up by about 10 points while the CPC are down by about 12 points. Both Liberal and NDP support in the praries tend to be concentrated, here it's for the NDP. Can't see the CPC gaining this one, especially with them down on the praries.
    11 04 25 Ron F
    The likelihood of a Conservative winning here is about the same as an NDP candidate winning in Portage-Lisgar. There amy be a few right wing populist folk heros who get some attention. but this is a solid working class riding and not loaded with millionaires or socons or a lot of business owners. Regardless of whether it in Malloway or any other New Democrat this is the correct call horses are not wishes.
    11 04 24 Brian
    I agree with the previous poster that 2 recent developments have shown that this is a tight race. First, the National Conservative office has been phoning the residents with a canned message - they have never cared about this riding in the past. Second, the endorsement of Russ Wyatt is significant - he is a popular left-wing city councillor sending out the robomessage that we should elect Toet. Should be a nail-biter.
    11 04 24 Pickle
    This should probably move to a TCTC. Conservatives have been getting more support each election in the riding, and a more visible Liberal candidate is going to take some of the NDP vote away. The NDP has not been as popular lately in Manitoba as a whole. Also, Russ Wyatt, city councilor and a card carrying member of the Manitoba NDP, endorsed the Conservative candidate due to his position and help on the Plessis Underpass project. He is robo calling residents with his endorsement. This could be the most interesting race in Manitoba, and there is a possibility of the seat changing hands.
    11 04 15 rsg
    The Conservatives aren't in play here, internal polling show the race is between the incumbent and the Liberal candidate.The Liberals are runing an excellent candidate against Maloway so this will be interesting.
    11 04 13 Brian
    I am going to go out on a limb and predict a narrow Conservative win. Toet is the most credible candidate the Conservatives have had in years, (sorry Mr. Steen) and the NDP brand is dropping rapidly in Manitoba, especially in light of yesterday's provincial budget. I live in the riding and in my neighbourhood (not representative of the riding, but still...) the Blue signs outnumber orange by about 5 to 1.
    11 04 12 Teddy Boragina
    At this moment in time, the NDP is so weak in the polls in the prairies, that the Conservatives are leading here on the math.
    11 04 11 Tony Ducey
    If Thomas Steen couldn't win this seat, the CPC can't, easy hold for the NDP.
    11 04 11 MissionGardensDude
    The Liberals have a strong candidate this year in Ilona Niemczyk. She has been campaigning since last May and I think will hold the Liberal vote pretty strong. Remember Art Miki for the Liberals in 1993 came close to defeating Bill Blaikie (219 votes margin) so anyone who thinks this is a safe NDP seat will have to think again. I'm thinking Ms. Nienczyk may split the left-wing vote and allow the Conservatives to squeak by in a tight 3-way race
    11 04 09 binriso
    The anti-CPC vote here is the NDP but I can see enough so-called 'strategic voters' being dumb enough not to realize that and vote Liberal. If the CPC win this seat, that will likely be one of the biggest reasons why.
    11 04 06 Flatland Man
    Thomas Steen is a popular man in Winnipeg for the obvious reasons and as his recent election to city council has shown. That being said despite Conservative pockets and trends in this riding I am having a hard time see the CPC taking the edge in this one. I am not sure they have even targeted it. My guess is that this riding regresses back to 2006 levels for the CPC and the NDP get back to near the 50% levels. Until some more accurate polling data for Winnipeg or Elmwood Transcona proves otherwise I am calling this an NDP hold.
    11 04 05 Darren
    The demographic of this riding is changing. I'm not yet convinced that this is too close to call, but I don't believe it's a NDP lock either. Maloway is no Bill Blaikie and I expect a strong Conservative campaign here. Lawrence Toet is a good local candidate. So I'm not sure that the Conservatives can take this reading, although I believe they are going to make a big run at it. But the margin should be closer than ever.
    11 04 04 Brian
    While this riding is naturally becoming more conservative, there's a long way to go. The city council seat only went conservative due to the fact there were at least 3 credible candidates on the left vs. the conservative candidate. However, I still say it is not an NDP lock due since the Tories are polling very high in Manitoba, and the NDP very low at this point.
    11 04 04 Rena Arlinsky
    The cons have a candidate named Laurence Toet. This is too close to call and depends on how the national campaign goes. If Harper does well this will go conservative , if not , and the NDP continues to sink the liberals could win in an upset because they have a real candidate for a change.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    Traditionally an NDP stronghold although part of that was due to Bill Blaikie's personal popularity. Also the growth in the Transcona area which is more friendly to the Tories as opposed to the Elmwood area also helps the Tories. This favours the NDP, but still too close to call.
    11 03 31 WAC
    Before we predict this riding will go Conservative, and it certainly might, maybe we should wait to see who their candidate is. Just a thought.
    11 03 30 transcona dude
    Elmwood is going conservative. The council seat is conservatives, and the NDP have not done anything for us. Blaikie is not our MP anymore and Maloway is not Bill Blaikie.
    11 03 30 Diane McPhee
    The conservatives had a strong finish last time and because the liberals have a strong campaign it will be enough to drain votes from Jim Maloway to the liberals and allow the conservatives to go over the top. The conservatives also have a better candidate this time; one that can actually communicate at the door. Maloway's recent comments regarding women will also hurt him in this race. Talking to my neighbors he has not done much and is not accessible.
    11 03 29 WAC
    While the Liberal predictions are cute and their partisan trolls are always appreciated, they have no realistic shot in this two way race between the NDP and Conservatives. I expect both the NDP and Conservatives to poll around 40-45% in this riding and the Liberals to finish a distant third with around 10-15%, based on the recent electoral history in the riding and the current Sasktoba polling numbers...
    11 03 28 Curtis
    I work at a polling firm and this is going to be one of the closest races in Manitoba. The Liberals and Conservatives appear to have been working hard in this riding and our polling gives a slight edge to the Liberals over Jim Maloway. The Conservatives did well with Thomas Steen last time but they don't have the star candidate this time like the Liberals do. Maloway has a reputation of being unavailable to constituents and this may well come back to haunt him on May 2cd. All 3 parties will be neck and neck , but we are sticking our neck out and predicting a Liberal victory .
    11 03 28 Elsa
    The Liberals have a strong Candidate here and I feel the vote could be split. The Liberals have never done much in Elmwood, but on the strength of the candidate alone I am going with the Liberals upsetting the NDP here by 80 votes.
    09 09 25 firstpastthepost
    This riding will likely be an NDP hold. Maloway has the advantage of incumbency, and has several well organized interest groups in his campaign tent. ?The Mighty Tim? is right to point out that the local Conservative team made serious headway in the last election, but a star candidate for the Conservatives and a series of serious missteps on the part of Maloway and his machine will be necessary to dislodge him.
    09 08 25 The Mighty Tim
    I disagree that this should go NDP right away. They have been slipping slowly while the Conservatives have been building a solid team in the area. The Conservative ground campaign has been working hard hear for years and are slowly building a better ID list and GOTV plan. The NDP rested last election on past success and this will hurt them long-term.
    Watch this one. It could be made a Conservative target with a serious candidate. Time will tell.
    09 08 24 Observer
    Last time a high profile hockey player could not defeat the NDP. With incumbent advantage the NDP will easily get reelected.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster