Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Saint Boniface

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 08:22:00

Constituency Profile


Glover, Shelly

Miniely, Patrice

Payette, Marc

Simard, Raymond

Shelly Glover

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • saint-boniface (170/170 Polls)
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  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 27 WpgReader
    The NDP candidate is not even running a campaign -- he's a full time student. If the NDPers in the riding want to dump Glover and move to Simard, Simard could easily win it.
    11 04 19 LondonMike
    It's very hard to see Shelly Glover holding this seat. She may be high profile, but when one sees what says, it's, frankly, embarrassing. Yes, the poll numbers are very high in the prairies are excellent for the Conservatives, but given the Liberal history here, and her performance, it will go Liberal.
    11 04 16 pppppp
    I am admittedly pro liberal and believe they will win out. My logic is that Shelly Glover is a one issue person (crime) and has no depth of issues. That issue is also currently not active, despite Harper trying to resuscitate it repeatedly with his fear-mongering. The only reason she has a chance is that the Liberals (nationally) are not strong (yet) and that she gets her funding from out of province (Alberta mainly).
    In conclusion, given the platforms and candidates, I think the Liberals will swing this back.
    11 04 16 Flatland Man
    The LPC states they have a good hand on Winnipeg North and Winnipeg Centre and are now targeting Rod Bruinooge in Winnipeg South. No mention however of St. Boniface. I think this is a silent admission that things are not going well here, something that obviously stings for a traditional LPC stronghold. That being said until a more popular leader arises for the LPC that can regain footing around some of the suburban areas and St. Mary's and St. Anne's areas they can no longer rely on the diehard support within the St. Boniface neighbourhood itself.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Liberals support in the praries is up by almost 10 points from last election. Where is all this support coming from? We all know that Liberal support tends to be concentrated in certain places (like Winnipeg) so the numbers would suggest a closer race than what recent posters are predicting. Oh and yes, there is a fairly large margin of error but even at the worst, the Liberals are still up 4% and you'd expect to see much more volitility in their support. Their support is following a trend, not fluctuating wildly as would be seen if margin of error is at play.
    11 04 14 Mike B
    Current trend shows high display of Conservative support through lawn signs compared to Liberal support, approximately 8:1 in southern parts. NDP and Green Party have no competitive support in this riding.
    11 04 13 Brian
    I was driving through several older areas of the riding - not the wealthier suburban areas, and I've never seen as many Conservative signs. This area used to be plastered with Liberal red. I think it's Ms. Glover's to lose.
    11 04 09 Greg
    Two things--the ‘ageist’ comment has already faded to nothing. Everyone with common sense has seen through the knee-jerk reaction to a comment that had nothing to do with age and everything to do with politics.
    Second thing, the lack of an NDP candidate could benefit Simard as it would coalesce the anti-Harper block into the Liberal camp. Glover has been a high profile but somewhat polarizing figure in her term, but I think she should hold this riding for the same reason she won it in the first place: The traditional Liberal voter in St. B is not a fan of the party leader. Last time it was Dion, this time it is Ignatieff.
    11 04 04 Flatland man
    Another interesting thing to point out in this riding is that it has never had a Conservative or Progressive Conservative win this riding as an incumbent. The same was said of Winnipeg South but Rod Bruinooge succeeded there again in 2008. If the conservatives stay here long term this could be an indication of the effects of suburbia on those two ridings which is undoubtedly where the support has come from. Suburban growth is also in my opinion why the Conservatives have been so successful these last 5 years, but remains to be seen if this is a long term trend or just an effect of the current state of the Liberal Party. Still this riding and Winnipeg South are winnable for the Liberals and for them they have to prove that trend wrong.
    11 04 03 Winston
    As icky as Shelly Glover's ageist comments came across, she will cruise to re-election with an increased plurality. The Liberals may be alright in the polls right now due to a small amount of NDP-fatigue at the provincial level, but they are woefully short of ground troops to capitalize on it. They'll be spread thin enough trying to hold on in Wpg-North and Wpg-S Ctr, both of which are in serious peril.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    A traditional Liberal stronghold that the Tories were able to pick off last time around. Part of the reason for the change is although the Liberals are strong in the Saint Boniface area, a significant portion of the riding's population lives further south in the provincial riding of Southdale which is generally more suburban and centre-right in its leanings. Also Shelly Glover has had a reasonably high profile for the Tories. While I would not be surprised if the Liberals retook this, the Tories definitely have the edge at this point.
    11 04 01 WpgReader
    Glover has made mistakes already and Simard has been working hard for months. Too close to call. If Libs get national bounce, this one could swing.
    11 04 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Recent Nanos poll has the Liberals gaining significantly in the praries at the expense of both the CPC and the NDP...Just sayin'...
    11 03 31
    The Conservative candidate has made herself the issue..for being harsh with seniors..and getting CARP mobilized against her. She is no longer holds the confidence of her riding.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    I'm not sure if Glover's controversial remarks about Anita Neville's age will be enough to determine what happens in this riding, but it's certainly not a good start. CARP has come out against her because they think it sounds like age discrimination:
    Glover won this riding by a good margin in the last election, so she's probably still in the lead here, but it does give Raymond Simard something to campaign about, along with the abolishing of the long-form census, which upset Francophones. Glover's remark about Anita Neville may actually hurt the Conservative candidate in Winnipeg South Centre more than it will hurt her, but we'll see.
    11 03 29
    Glover's insult to seniors and refusal to apologize will hurt her. The same thing happened when she was caught in the water bottle fiasco (trying to hand out water bottles with Conservative Party logos through the schools). A simple apology would have killed the issue but she seems constitutionally incapable of doing that. Libs seem more organized and prepared this time, lots of signs were going up before the writ was even dropped.
    11 03 28 Jim
    Likely will stay conservative. Glover has a much higher profile now and I can't see Ray Simard coming back from that as much as I think he is the better candidate.
    11 03 28 Brrr
    Shelly won this seat by double the margins of the previous Liberal MP. She's easily the second highest profile MP the City has ever had (next to Axworthy). This is one of the safest seats in the country for the Conservatives.
    11 03 28 Flatland Man
    Ignatieff will be stopping here in St. Boniface on Wednesday, making him the second leader to stop here (when Harper announced he would be in Winnipeg in Tuesday after the Ignatieff announcement). Clearly the Liberals have made this a target riding and I am unsure where this puts their priorities of Winnipeg South. It is my assumption that Winnipeg South is a much more Liberal riding despite its inclusion of Tuxedo and Fort Whyte (strong conservative communities). Either way I will move this to TCTC and leaning Conservative until I see how the Liberal campaign plays out a little more.
    11 03 26 Flatland Man
    Despite what should be a slight resurgence of the Liberal party within Winnipeg city limits St. Boniface will likely remain in Conservative hands. The loss of this traditional Liberal riding smarts for the Libs and Simard who blamed his 5,000 vote loss on Dion. It will be interesting to see how hard the Liberals campaign here and whether the stay at home Liberals will go out and vote this go around. It certainly stands to be a lot closer than in 2008 and if the Liberals start doing well nationally this riding could still turn red by the end of the campaign.
    11 03 25 WAC
    I agree with Dr. Bear & Prof. Ape. The census was/is a huge issue for francophone community outside of Quebec and it remains to be seen how that will affect seats like St. Boniface. However most of the Francophone part of the riding mostly went Liberal last time... I think Glover has the edge but its TCTC for now. It will largely depend on how the census issue plays out in the riding and on the national campaign. One to watch.
    11 03 22 Old Flin Flon
    Retaking this riding is a Liberal pipe dream. The combined Liberal and NDP vote in the last election barely matched Glover. The riding has been trending English and Tory for several election cycles and there is no reason to believe that the Liberals can overcome those trends. They should concentrate their efforts on holding Winnipeg North against an NDP on slot, and hope that the Tories don't pull a rabbit out of the hat in Winnipeg South Centre.
    11 02 25 R.O.
    Although the liberals did win Winnipeg North i still like Shelly Glovers chances here. as she is of higher profile than last time as she's held some parliamentary secretary positions and considered to be a solid mp . the circumstances that came together in Winnipeg North were somewhat unique and not likely to lead to major gains around Winnipeg . the liberals will of course remain her main competitors and Raymond Simard has some profile in the riding but she has an advantage here.
    10 10 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    So we debated this and we are changing our prediction from CPC to TCTC. Why the change of heart? Something as seemingly innocuous as the census long form may be her downfall. French communities outside Quebec have been up in arms about this issues and in this billingual riding it could hurt the Tory incumbent. Still say it's leaning CPC but might be closer than previously thought.
    10 04 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Point of order, Ms Glover did not introduce the bill on the long-gun registry it was Candice Hoeppner of Portage-Lisgar. Totally moot point, with the Cons still at about 50% in Manitoba and the afore-mentioned reasons, we still say CPC hold.
    09 12 12 beenkissinwho
    Glover has been given a higher profile in this parliament. Partially as PS for Official Languages, but also because she was the MP to introduce the bill on the Long-Gun Registry. Since this was a popular issue in Western Canada, it will probably help her keep Saint Boniface in the next election, with an increased vote share.
    09 11 11 R.O.
    This was traditionally a liberal riding which has been one of there safest seats in Manitoba . although it if you look thrus its history had fallen twice before to the old pc party , once in a by-election in the 70's and the 84 election. so maybe it had some more swing to it than the liberals wanted to admit . now its 2009 and Shelly Glover is the conservative mp for Saint Boniface and i think she has the advantage here. as she is a fairly popular and comes across as a likeable mp, the conservatives also have a lead in the polls. and in western canada even in Urban Winnipeg they have made gains into areas previously seen as unwinnable and held the ridings in past elections. The liberals are going to run former mp Raymond Simard here. i think he as a candidate keeps them competitive in the riding but i'm not convinced that be enough to win it back at this time.
    09 10 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Though listing this riding TCTC is not unreasonable at this very early stage, just can't see how the Liberals can retake this riding right now. The Great Liberal Sit Out of '08 did not occur here and they still lost this riding. No the CPC, or rather we think Ms Glover, won over the hearts and minds of the voters. Iggy and co just don't seem to be doing that, especially out west.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Very hard to run against this incumbent. She's bilingual, articulate, attractive, a former police officer and exudes warmth and confidence. In her first election, she won by 4,700 and took 46% of the vote. With the incumbent's advantage, she'll hold the seat without difficulty.
    09 08 27 JJ
    Not a natural Conservative riding, but Shelly Glover will hold this. Not only did she win by a healthy margin, she is the incumbent now and has been quite an articulate MP in Ottawa, perhaps even a potential minister (Public Safety?). Her Metis origin and bilingualism resonates well with this riding. Plus, her appointment as Parliamentary Secretary for Official Languages suits this bilingual riding very well. Conservative hold.
    09 08 25 NorthernRaven
    Shelly Glover, the bilingual PS for Official Languages and former police officer, in the bilingual riding of Saint Boniface will win again, as she defeated Raymond Simard by increasing the Conservative vote by 4500 votes. With the crime issuesin Winnipeg and the distate of the Coalition in Western Canada, Shelly will be able to hold this riding.

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