Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Fleetwood-Port Kells

Prediction Changed
2011-04-11 09:25:00

Constituency Profile


Dhanoa, Pam

Fernando, Nao

Grewal, Nina

Joehl, Alex

Saldanha, Alan

Nina Grewal

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • surrey-central (120/241 Polls)
  • surrey-north (21/171 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 18 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With CPC currently down 7% and the Liberals up 15% from '08 in BC...maybe...just maybe...however Nina Grewal always seems to eke out a victory...
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    A fast growing riding, so tracking trends from previous elections is quite difficult. Still the CPC should do well but probably not as well as in '08. There was a sit-out in '08 (there was a consistent 40% non-vote but that jumped to over 44% in '08) and then there is the fact that the Liberals are up in BC polls while the CPC is down. Closer win for Grewal but a win never the less (wonder what her husband is doing these days...?)
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The Conservatives will win here not because Nina Grewal is popular or any strong support, but rather the weakness amongst the other two parties. NDP support is largely limited to the very western areas while the Liberals do well in the western parts, especially amongst Indo-Canadian voters, the eastern part of the riding is the beginning of the Fraser Valley bible belt and the Tories large wins here as well as strong turnout will put them over the top.
    11 04 12 Fleetwood
    Given the large amount of cash Ms.Grewal has brought to the riding coupled with her 10,000 vote win last time,the riding should easily stay Conservative.
    11 04 10
    I still don't understand why this isn't in the Conservative column yet. Last election Nina won by a wide margin of votes. Add to that, this time, the Liberal candidate came into the race very late and has very little presence in the community. In my mind I only see the NDP posing somewhat of a threat but Nina has done great things for this riding and Surrey in general and I see that giving her the great advantage. Conservative hold.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    This was a close race in 2006, but not so much in 2008. Although the NDP has some strength in the western parts of the riding, not enough to win the riding while the Liberals have a somewhat better chance of winning, this is still a centre-right riding thus as long as the Tories stay in front in BC, they should hold this.
    11 03 27
    This one shouldn't be too close to call. Ms. Grewal handily won last time with a margin of over 9000 votes, running against a well known former BC MLA and provincial cabinet minister. She handily defeated the current NDP candidate last time and it appears the Liberal candidate does not have a high public profile outside the Muslim community. Couple that with the amount of Tax Dollars Ms. Grewal has been responsible for returning to Surrey in the way of Federal Government investment ( more each single year of Conservative Governemnt than in the previous 10 years of Liberal Government ) and it is likely her margin will easily exceed the 9,000+ margin of last time.
    11 03 26 BJ
    F-PK was held by the Cons with an 18.5% or ~9,000 vote margin in 2008. With the federal parties polling near their 2008 results in BC, I don't see this seat changing hands.
    11 03 25 Mr. Thind
    2004 and 2006 were VERY close. Nina barely squeaked by. As an MP who rarely speaks... Someone who wouldn't garner the support of her own party ‘hardcores’ if they had a ‘policy discussion’ with her, Nina is considered ‘low fruit’ on the Conservative tree. A credible, presentable Liberal or NDP Candidate would give her a run for her money - and could easily topple her. Unfortunately, there may be more to the swing of the votes than publicly meets the eye (read into that whatever you may).
    The 2008 vote was an aberration. As someone who knocked a lot of doors, I can clearly say the ‘Dion factor’ was at play. Gas tax/carbon tax killed Liberal vote in the riding, and people at doors point-blank told me ‘we don't understand what he's saying’. Sad, but compelling reasoning why the vote collapsed. Ignatieff is a far cry from Dion - and regardless of what the attack ads have claimed, when the public hears him speak, they will be moved.
    Nina also spent $81K here last election, and a lot of flyers came prior to the writ. This time around, it appears the Cons weren't expecting this election. People on the ground also complain about the incessant attack ads.
    It should be an interesting ride. From what I hear (and know) the Liberal Candidate will certainly be able to outperform Grewal. They are someone who is well-spoken, and driven by issues that matter to the residents of the riding.
    In an upset - that will shock Canadians - I give this riding to the Liberals by less than 500 votes.
    09 11 27 R.O.
    Well the riding was close in 04 and 06 it wasn't at all close in 2008 and the opposition parties level of support in the riding has held largely the same with little growth. the ndp for example have got 10,900 votes in the last 3 elections almost the exact number of votes each time and haven't seen any growth in support. the liberals have done slightly better than the ndp here but still been stuck around the same level of support in the last 3 recent elections. so if Nina Grewal is able to hold most of here support from 08 she will be very tough to beat here as the other parties have shown limited growth potential in the riding and each unable to coinvince the other why they should vote for there candidate, well i mean liberals unable to win over ndp voters and ndp unable to win over liberals. as for a potential race here its unknown who some of her opponents will be as i don't believe anyone has been nominated for the liberals to run here yet although the ndp candidate Nao Fernando may be coming back i saw on the pundits guide.
    09 08 26 wyatt
    Grewal has a comfortable 8,800 vote lead here. Her total exploded over her numbers from '04 and '06. She'll hold the seat.
    09 08 26 JJ
    Usually a close, see-saw race. However, in last election, MP Nina Grewal solidified her margin of victory by almost 9000 votes. This is a healthy and comfy margin of victory. It will likely stay in the CPC fold.

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