Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:07:00

Constituency Profile


Benoit, Anne Marie

Crowder, Jean

East, Jack

Fillmore, Brian

Koury, John

Jean Crowder

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • nanaimo-cowichan (226/226 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 27 binriso
    1. The Conservatives ran a star candidate and former MP here last time and only got barely within 5000 votes.
    2. Even if you added all of the Liberal votes to the Conservatives you wouldnt beat the NDP
    3. The polling results provincewide so far are slightly better for the NDP and slightly worse for the Conservatives
    4. The NDP have huge momentum nationwide.
    And finally the best point of all
    5. 'People think its time for a change in this riding so they might want to vote Conservative'. Throwing aside the obvious irony about voting for any small-c conservative party bringing about any meaningful 'change' other than pork barrelling money into the riding, its hard to argue that things would be much different the last few years if the Conservatives had a majority, since the Liberals ducked lots of non-confidence votes which left Harper to operate like a virtual majority most of the time.
    11 04 26 Mike S
    In spite of the NDP ‘surge’ I see more Koury lawn signs than Crowder signs. Since the last election a lot more retirees have moved into the Cowichan Valley and you know where most of them have come from. I also see a lot more people fed up with the minority government merry-go-round which is actually not so merry. A lot of people (especially business people who would usually vote Liberal) are fed up with continuing economic uncertainty caused by this succession of minority governments and have decided to vote for a majority government. Thease people are also tired of being an opposition riding for so long and feel that having an MP who is part of the government will be an advantage. Jean Crowder has kept herself busy but there really have been no noticeable results. ‘It's time for a change in this riding’ is a very clear feeling.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    If the Tories couldn't retake this with former MP Reed Elley, I don't see why they will this time around, especially considering they had the carbon tax to run on which was quite unpopular. Unlike Nanaimo-Alberni which was a large retiree community between Parksville to Qualicum Beach who vote Tory, this is more your resource union based riding thus why it still goes NDP.
    09 01 01 Tuneman
    Now that the 2nd place Conservatives appear to have nominated John Koury, the disastrous 2004 candidate from Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca, this safe NDP seat just became safer. The Tory vote will probably split to the Liberals as an alternative. Koury has joined the North Cowichan council and he may have cooled his jets a bit since his 2004 run, but reputations have a way of sticking out here and I haven't heard of any major wrongdoings on the part of the current MP.
    09 10 01 Sean P.F.
    This riding is reasonably safe for the NDP. However, it is possible on election day that it could go Conservative, IF a couple of things happen
    1. The Liberal Vote returns. It more then halved from 2006 to 2008, and with the Liberal's strategy nowadays being one of trying to steal votes from left leaning peoples, they may be able to get votes from the NDP here.
    2. A large Conservative surge or a NDP drop in British Columbia will cause this riding to fall via swings. This riding was held by the Reform and Canadian Alliance prior to 2004, so it does have a possibility to going Conservative.
    However, with current polling numbers and the current arena, its a re-election for Jean Crowder with numbers similar to 2006 and 2008 (5000 vote margin)
    09 08 24 Observer
    NDP won most Vancouver island ridings in the provincial election although having lost the province, that is a good indication for the federal vote.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster