Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Cripps, Mark

Doucette, Philip

Fiorentino, Nancy

Innes, Bob Green

Miller, Paul

Pattinson, Greg

Randall, W. Peter

Paul Miller


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 24 A.S.
    In '07, this made history as the NDP's first general-election gain since the Rae landslide...and typical of the Dippers' post-Rae disappointments, it was their *only* gain that year. In all likelihood, being Andrea Horwath's neighbour (and, indeed, in large part represented by Horwath after her '04 byelection win) cinches things for the incumbent party. And perhaps, federal trends plus Tim Hudak as a neighbour cinches second place for the Tories, this time...
    11 09 19 AD
    I vote NDP win. Liberals are down overall from the last election in every poll. Between having the incumbant, an increase in the polls from their 2007 numbers, and the fact this is Hamilton tells me all signs point to an NDP win by a wider margin than 2007.
    11 09 12 Adriano
    Despite the blatantly self serving predictions from the NDP posters on this thread, Miller's early lead out of the gate on the sign wars has narrowed significantly with the Liberal signs cropping up all over the riding.
    11 08 31 Double J
    My home riding. Many Stoney Creek Liberals remember how Mark Cripps took one cheap shot after another against former MPP Jennifer Mossop and how the Stoney Creek News called 2007 Liberal candidate Nerene Virgin a ?Tar Baby? in a story by reporter Kevin Werner. As a result many local Liberals are working in other Hamilton ridings as they can't bring themselves to help Mark Cripps. This will be an easy victory for Paul Miller as he'll win by more this time than in 2007
    11 07 22 robert
    Miller in a romp. Tories could finish 2nd in this riding now that Libs are on the verge of nominating local newspaper editor Mark Cripps. If this is the best that the Grits can do then they really are dead locally. Cripps spends most his column time critizing everything and everyone (including McGuinty). Has an ego bigger than Nepoleon. The Tory candidate is out knocking on doors in the Winona area. Really a nobody who also like Cripps does not live in the riding. Her claim to fame was running a strong 2nd to Brad Clark in Municipal campaign this past fall.
    11 03 24 jeff316
    Marston consolidated the riding federally against Larry DiIanni (of all people!) Paul Miller will do the same.
    11 03 17 binriso
    The NDP scraped this one out last time and with a new leader from another Hamilton riding and a loss of votes by the Liberals they should win by an increased margin.

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