Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Cripps, Mark

Doucette, Philip

Fiorentino, Nancy

Innes, Bob Green

Miller, Paul

Pattinson, Greg

Randall, W. Peter

Incumbent:
Paul Miller

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    PAUL MILLER
    16,27237.65%
    NERENE VIRGIN
    15,06234.85%
    TARA CRUGNALE
    9,31021.54%
    RAYMOND DARTSCH
    2,1224.91%
    ROBERT INNES
    4521.05%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2151851.94%
    1021724.66%
    809219.53%


  •  


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    11 09 24 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    In '07, this made history as the NDP's first general-election gain since the Rae landslide...and typical of the Dippers' post-Rae disappointments, it was their *only* gain that year. In all likelihood, being Andrea Horwath's neighbour (and, indeed, in large part represented by Horwath after her '04 byelection win) cinches things for the incumbent party. And perhaps, federal trends plus Tim Hudak as a neighbour cinches second place for the Tories, this time...
    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    I vote NDP win. Liberals are down overall from the last election in every poll. Between having the incumbant, an increase in the polls from their 2007 numbers, and the fact this is Hamilton tells me all signs point to an NDP win by a wider margin than 2007.
    11 09 12 Adriano
    209.250.175.75
    Despite the blatantly self serving predictions from the NDP posters on this thread, Miller's early lead out of the gate on the sign wars has narrowed significantly with the Liberal signs cropping up all over the riding.
    11 08 31 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    My home riding. Many Stoney Creek Liberals remember how Mark Cripps took one cheap shot after another against former MPP Jennifer Mossop and how the Stoney Creek News called 2007 Liberal candidate Nerene Virgin a ?Tar Baby? in a story by reporter Kevin Werner. As a result many local Liberals are working in other Hamilton ridings as they can't bring themselves to help Mark Cripps. This will be an easy victory for Paul Miller as he'll win by more this time than in 2007
    11 07 22 robert
    70.55.6.99
    Miller in a romp. Tories could finish 2nd in this riding now that Libs are on the verge of nominating local newspaper editor Mark Cripps. If this is the best that the Grits can do then they really are dead locally. Cripps spends most his column time critizing everything and everyone (including McGuinty). Has an ego bigger than Nepoleon. The Tory candidate is out knocking on doors in the Winona area. Really a nobody who also like Cripps does not live in the riding. Her claim to fame was running a strong 2nd to Brad Clark in Municipal campaign this past fall.
    11 03 24 jeff316
    206.248.177.14
    Marston consolidated the riding federally against Larry DiIanni (of all people!) Paul Miller will do the same.
    11 03 17 binriso
    156.34.219.7
    The NDP scraped this one out last time and with a new leader from another Hamilton riding and a loss of votes by the Liberals they should win by an increased margin.



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