Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Ahuja, Priya

Chen, Liang

Choi, Paul

McLarty, Doug

Thompson, Pauline

Wall, Sabrina

Wong, Soo

Hon Gerry Phillips


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 30 peri
    Soo Wong is the strongest, most recognizable candidate in the riding. While there is some appetite for change, Hudak's divisive ‘foreign workers’ approach cut into the PC support in this very ethnic riding. Lots more Liberal signs around the riding.
    11 09 20 binriso
    Hard to see any 30+ percent wins by the Liberals being lost this time around.
    11 09 19 AD
    Eh, it's an open seat but I still think the Liberals will be able to hold this seat. Unless the polls change dramatically I'm voting this one to go Liberal, as this riding looks like a pretty safe Liberal win.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    A little underreported as open seats go, maybe in part because the Liberals held on federally--though one wonders what might have happened federally had Jim Karygiannis retired. Unless the PCs were headed for a landslide or at least a clear majority win, I see little prospect for change, especially with the end of Ford Nation's honeymoon--and Soo Wong's a tailor-made successor to Gerry Phillips in this kind of seat. (Though their respective names stand as a reminder of how much this stretch of Scarborough has changed, demographically, since Gerry Phillips first won. Remember: this is where Rush's ?Subdivisions? video was filmed.)
    11 08 07 Spunky
    Liang Chen is leading the best organized Tory campaign in decades. 350 people to her campaign office opening. Young volunteers coming out every week by the score. With Gerry Phillips gone, this riding could very well go to the Tories.
    11 05 26 OgtheDim
    Hmmm...Sue Wong, local school trustee and nursing teacher
    Liang Chen, CGA, accounting Prof at U of T Scarborough
    I'd call that a slight lead in the who's better known category for the Liberals but not by much.
    If this riding comes down to the GOTV, the Tories will have some issues. They are not as well organized locally as their federal cousins are. So, the Tories will be looking to ride this riding in on a wave of provincial Tory support. Until that is proven to be happening, TCTC.
    11 04 01 Zoho
    Gerry Phillips is retiring. He would have won it easily but now there will be no incumbent running which gives bigger chance to the others. the Conservatives always bring someone from outside Toronto for this riding.
    NDP stand NO CHANCE here, if the new Liberal will be a strong one then Liberal will win.
    11 03 26 Former Agincourt Resident
    With Minister Phillips retiring this seat needs to go into the TCTC column.
    Agincourt/Scarborough North tends to be a personal seat than a party seat. Thomas Wells held Scarborough North until 1985 when he retired and the seat went to Alvin Curling and the Liberals. Phillips won in 1987 when the old Scarborough North turned into Scarborough Agincourt and Scarborough North/Rouge River.
    Where Rouge River became a Liberal bulkhead, Agincourt became a Phillips seat. There are many Agincourt Conservatives that voted for Phillips.
    Now that Phillips has retired, and the Tories are pushing their candidate Liang Chen at appearances with Hudak, this could be a riding that won't be called until late on the evening of the 6th of October.
    11 02 25 seasaw
    This is one of the safest if not the safest Liberal seats anywhere in the province. Even if OLP is reduced to a handfull of seats, this one will be an easy victory.

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