Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Simcoe North


Prediction Changed
2013-04-14 20:49:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dunlop, Garfield

Larsen, Fred

Middleton, Doris

Stubbins, Peter

Incumbent:
Garfield Dunlop

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Simcoe North)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * GARFIELD DUNLOP
    2508155.16%
    FRED LARSEN
    1019122.41%
    DORIS MIDDLETON
    771016.96%
    PETER STUBBINS
    24885.47%
    2007 Result:
    * GARFIELD DUNLOP
    22,98649.82%
    LAURA DOMSY
    14,09430.55%
    WAYNE VARCOE
    4,70910.21%
    ANDREW HILL
    4,2409.19%
    DANE-TRAIN RAYBOULD
    1120.24%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1753938.28%
    2061544.99%
    549411.99%


  •  


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    14 06 01 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Once upon a time, SN was deemed the more 'competitive' Simcoe seat, what with Midland-Penetang's portland grit combined with Franco-Ontarian Grittiness--but now, thanks in part to the gradual PC fulcrum shift from heartland to hinterland, Dunlop enjoys a higher share than Jim Wilson. (cf. Garf's first race in 1999, in which he was pressed hard by the Liberals while Wilson swept to the highest share in the province.) And that was *in spite of* a better-than-expected NDP result and one of the more credible (and municipally experienced! and running again!) Green candidates out there--which made, and still makes, for a fatally fragmented opposition choice.
    14 05 25 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Garfield Dunlop remains a popular mpp for the riding and riding is pretty conservative friendly at provincial level to begin with . he will likely keep this riding for another term .
    14 05 11 Ken Szijarto
    69.17.188.11
    2014 Candidates are the same as 2011. PC bastion but with less than 50% voter turnout in 2011, 45K dormant voters to get to the polls. Local issues: Cost of Living (ie Hydro), Jobs, Aging demographic (out migration of post sec grads to find work), Policing Costs & future the of Casino Rama should a GTA Casino get built.
    14 05 05 Liberal Observer
    206.177.43.71
    This riding will remain in the Conservative fold. There's really no chance of an upset. Garfield Dunlop has a strong franchise with the voters in this riding, and even people who don't vote for him often say nice things about his constituency work and about him personally.It doesn't matter what kind of campaign the Liberals and NDP run in this riding. There is no discernible path to victory, no matter what they do.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Also a safe PC riding and although up around Midland and Penetanguishene the Liberals have some support due to the large Francophone community, the PC support elsewhere will easily overwhelm any weakness there.
    13 04 10
    70.30.132.201
    Simcoe North is one of the safest seats imaginable, even giving Garfield Dunlop an eight-point victory in the Liberal sweep year of 1990. He shouldn't have any trouble next time either.
    13 04 10 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    No contest here. Dunlop won by a significant margin last time. The PC's have won here the last nine times, eight with fairly convincing margins. Nothing'll change.



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