Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry


Prediction Changed
2013-03-23 13:18:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Earle, John

MacDonald, Elaine

McDonell, Jim

McRae, Shawn

Norman, Sharron

Incumbent:
Jim McDonell

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    JIM MCDONELL
    2146355.25%
    MARK A MACDONALD
    841321.66%
    ELAINE MACDONALD
    802120.65%
    JUSTIN REIST
    5511.42%
    DARCY NEAL DONNELLY
    3961.02%
    2007 Result:
    * JIM BROWNELL
    18,66048.86%
    CHRIS SAVARD
    14,79438.73%
    LORI TAYLOR
    2,8137.37%
    ELAINE KENNEDY
    1,6804.40%
    LUKAS BEBJAK
    2470.65%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1857450.94%
    1302335.71%
    160204.39%


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    14 06 10 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    Funny how ever since Y2K (first federally, and now provincially), SDSG has gone from urban-rural bipolarity where Cornwall's industry-plus-francophone base was as apparently 'left' as it comes, to a Tory monolith that's even dragged Cornwall, kicking and screaming, into the fray--yeah, it seemed a certain open-seat pickup in 2011, but who knew that the Grits would be nearly tied w/the NDP for a distant second? (Which is *really* channeling a distant past, back when George Samis represented Cornwall for the NDP in 1974-85.) At the moment, a lost cause for opposition forces; though for NDP to reassume second would definitely be a moral stepping-stone of sorts...
    14 05 27 Jack Russell
    134.117.120.218
    Even if the PCs fail to catch fire provincially, this riding will remain a solid PC. Jim McDonnell has too strong an organization to be stopped. Elaine McDonald is a seasoned campaigner and a good local politician, but running under the NDP banner in this riding is detrimental. The Liberals have yet to find a candidate since former M.P.P. Jim Brownell that can win the riding/inspire the public. The only excitement here on election night will be the battle for second place.
    14 05 22 As is
    64.233.172.4
    Elaine is a strong candidate who will ensure that the NDP wins a narrow victory in Cornwal, especially as the Liberals continue to struggle in this formal stronghold amidst the weakening of organized labour (traditionally more Liberal than NDP in this area) and the Francophone's abandonment of the Liberal Party. Unfortunately, it will not be enough because the NDP has always been a non-factor in rural eastern Ontario and the Liberals have spent the past decade becoming equally irrelevant. Look for the Tories to rack up huge margins outside of Cornwall and win the riding by a commanding margin.
    14 05 06 Expat Ontarian
    162.156.58.248
    As a previous Liberal seat it was a Jim Brownell seat, not truly a Liberal seat. And as the Libs move hard to the left, this rural community is going to have even less in common with the current Liberal party. This will be a PC seat on election night, handily.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This may have one been a Liberal stronghold, but like much of rural Eastern Ontario has swung quite hardly behind the PCs. Its predominately Catholic, but Ontarioans no longer vote along sectarian lines like they once did while it has a large Francophone minority who the Liberals tend to do better amongst, but the days of them getting 70-80% amongst this group are long gone whereas amongst the Anglophones they will probably get close to 2/3.
    13 03 16 Colin
    65.93.167.89
    Easy Conservative win again here.
    - McDonell won with one of the largest percentages in the province
    - The Libs are still in disarray and have no high-profile, electable candidates coming forward
    - Elaine MacDonald is running again who will split the progressive vote
    - McDonell has incumbent advantage of name recognition
    - The local Conservatives have one of the best 'Big Blue Machines' in the province, if not the country in terms of campaign team and organization



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