Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-06 08:19:00

Constituency Profile


Cimino, Joe

Lalonde, Casey

Olivier, Andrew

Peroni, Paula

Popescu, J. David

Wilson, Steven

Rick Bartolucci


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Sudbury)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 11 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    This is one of two very likely pickups for the NDP - the other being Windsor West. But will they be enough to offset likely losses in other ridings?
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Sudbury (polled Monday, 479 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) New Democrat Joe Cimino 44 per cent, Liberal Andrew Olivier 36 per cent, Progressive Conservative Paula Peroni 15 per cent, Green Casey Lalonde 4 per cent.
    14 06 05 ABCPredictor
    Gerry Labelle strikes me as an odd choice for a PC candidate. On at least two occasions in the past year he has attended anti-pipeline rallies in the north including North Bay. In fact he was a presenter at an Ontario Energy Board open house on April 2nd, 2014 and helped speak against the TransCanada Energy East pipeline project as a part of the Citizens Climate Lobby. In contrast, I don't think any other PC candidate would come close to having that stance and running for the party. However, maybe this is an indication of green issues, at varying levels of importance, being picked up across party lines.
    14 06 05 Marco Ricci
    Most projections appear to have the NDP leading here, so they are probably in the strongest position to win. Particularly with Bartolucci gone. Kathleen Wynne did stop by here last week, and a reporter said perhaps she thinks the riding is still winnable for the Liberals, but the reporter said he assumes it's heading NDP.
    14 06 05 NJam101
    In 2011 so many people said this seat would be going NDP but it didn't end up happening. This time I think it will but not by much of a margin. It really depends on who turns out to vote of course.
    Olivier is probably the best candidate the Liberals could put forward in the current situation. He certainly has a shot but a long one. He is not a cabinet minister and doesn't have the same profile as Bartolucci. But he's doing well considering those things.
    Cimino being a city councillor will help and the last election gave the NDP momentum in Sudbury even if the provincial campaign has been weak. Peroni will do better than PC candidates in the last few elections but will still be a distant third.
    14 06 02 Mark R
    A riding specific poll conducted by Oracle research showed the following: The NDP and Joe Cimino 42.1
    The Liberals and Andrew Olivier 34.5
    The PC's and Paula Peroni 20.1
    Game over Liberals. NDP gain.
    14 05 30 seasaw
    It'll be an upset if the NDP doesn't win here. The retirement of Rick Bartalucci, coupled with the people's tremendous dissatisfaction with the governing Liberals should put this one in the orange column.
    14 05 30 seasaw
    It'll be an upset if the NDP doesn't win here. The retirement of Rick Bartalucci, coupled with the people's tremendous dissatisfaction with the governing Liberals should put this one in the orange column.
    14 05 29 Martin
    Rick Bartolucci used to win this riding by thousands of votes. In 2011 NDP candidate Paul Loewenberg came perilously close to snatching this riding away from the Liberals. Without a Liberal incumbent, the NDP most likely will take this seat by a comfortable margin.
    14 05 25 R.O.
    When I heard Bartolucci was retiring I always sort of though ndp would take this one . I mean if they can't pick up this riding there might not be any new ridings for ndp as realistically its one of the most likely ndp pick ups in the province based on previous results. Its a lot more likely to go ndp than a lot of the other ridings they are targeting this year. And liberals have been having a hard time holding onto ridings once long time incumbents leave so it could easily flip .
    14 05 25 jeff316
    The NDP in Sudbury's had an interesting ride in the last five or six years. They've seen the rise of a Layton-left in Thiebault and his gang, which made some of the old-guard feeling marginalized but unable to speak out given the party's recent success in Sudbury. Loewenberg was part of the Thiebault gang and given his near-success in 2011 it was unexpected when Cimino walked in and snatched the nomination from under his nose. Both groups are agitated and disjointed. Loewenberg was the better candidate; Cimino is widely viewed as a guy looking to make a career move upward and would surprise no-one if he jumped ship to the Liberals sometime in the next few years if it were to be in his best interests. That being said, this is inside baseball - I think this riding will go NDP even if their campaign collapses provincially.
    14 05 22 Alice
    I think NDP-Liberal swing voters are going to go the Liberals in order to stop Hudak. I predict a Liberal win here.
    14 05 20 RD
    The Sudbury Star reported that Richard Eberhardt, co-campaign manager and organizer for federal NDP MP Glenn Thibault, quit the Cimino campaign last week. The reason cited was unspecified 'differences' between Eberhart and another staffer, Patrick McCoy. A third staffer, Darrell Marsh, also quit with Eberhardt.
    14 05 19 nesooite
    Will be difficult with Bartolucci retiring. But this is Liberal must have if they are going to retain power.
    14 05 16 A.S.
    If it weren't enough that the NDP were well poised to gain this one (though I wouldn't count out Sudbury morphing into a three-way, of all things), their candidate's been pigeonholed as an unlikely Rob Ford doppelganger (strictly physical--I hope). And this after nearly stealing the seat w/an ex-punk rocker in 2011--whether that morph is a metaphor for Andrea Horwath's evolving campaign strategy, who knows...
    14 05 12 Dr Bear
    Oracle Research conducted a riding poll in Sudbury are it has reported the NDP have pulled ahead of the Liberals in local support. Though early, I would think the NDP will take this riding. The lack of an incumbent and the close race in 2011 seem to mirror what happened in near-by Nipissing 2007(a close win by the Liberal incumbent over a PC challenger is eventually followed by her retirement prior to the 2011 election which is won by the PC).
    14 05 09 The Jackal
    According to CTV news poll the NDP has a six point lead over the Liberals in this riding. Granted it is early in the campaign but the Liberals narrowly won here in 2011 against a political neophyte.
    13 03 04 seasaw
    With Rick Bartalucci retiring, this riding is ripe for the picking for NDP. As of now, NDP support is at a 22 year high, while Liberal support is at a 30 year low. NDP came close the last time and with numbers like this, they should take this.
    13 02 16 Jack Cox
    Bartolucci is retiring, so I'm assuming the NDP take this.

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