Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-06 08:18:00

Constituency Profile


Dong, Han

Echevarria, Andrew

Figueiras, Paul

Grant, Tim

King, Dan

Marchese, Rosario

Scott, Roberta

Rosario Marchese


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Trinity-Spadina)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 11 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Marchese recently put out an open letter pleading for support and distancing himself from the leaer - stressing his own work and reminding people that you not only vote for a party but also a local representative.
    Kind of sad actually. I don't think he'll be re-elected this time.
    The Greens have a very good candidate in Tim Grant. It'll be interesting to see if his vote goes up and where he gets votes from.
    I'm thinking this will go 40% Liberal, 38% NDP, 11% PC and 8% Green.
    14 06 09 MGK
    I meant to say that there are more Joe Cressy signs than Rosario Marchese signs (I think there are also more Cressy signs than Vaughan signs, although that is neither as obvious, since the sign density varies geographically, nor as relevant to forecasting the provincial election.) My point is one of two things is happening, neither of which would look good for Rosario:
    (1) Many New Democrats in the riding are, in contrast to other elections, not displaying a Marchese sign this time around. No other party is showing this discrepancy.
    (2) Marchese is not attracting the typical volunteer organization. This may be due to competing with Cressy for their time, or due to the party faithful in this riding feeling lukewarm about the provincial party. Whatever it is, Han Dong seems not to be experiencing the same problems, and Tim Grant seems exceptionally well organized judging by signs.
    My own sense is it's a little of both. Also, whatever is moderating the party faithful's feelings about the provincial election, has nothing to do with Marchese and everything to do with Horwath.
    14 06 08 Marco Ricci
    Yes, this riding is still too close to call. A 1-point lead for Dong over Marchese in a by-election poll is obviously within the margin of error and we can't really tell anything from that. All it tells us is what we already know - this riding is close and Marchese is vulnerable. But it also shows that he is still in the game and can pull off a last-minute win like he did last time. What I don't get about the Forum poll though is why the PC's are at nearly 20%. That would be much higher than they normally get in a riding like this. I'm wondering if that number is off, and if so, where those votes will go? As to the point made by MGK, are you saying that the NDP has more signs in the federal by-election than the Liberals, or that the federal NDP has more signs than the provincial NDP?
    14 06 08 EB
    Liberals are running a local resident of Chinese decent which will help in recapturing of 9,500 Chinese votes. The increase in population in the electoral district of mostly young, well paid professionals also favours Liberals even if the turn out from the condos is low. The NDP candidate does not live in the area for some time.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Trinity-Spadina (polled Sunday, 409 people, accurate to within 5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal Han Dong 37 per cent, New Democrat Rosario Marchese 36 per cent, Progressive Conservative Roberta Scott 19 per cent, Green Tim Grant 8 per cent.
    14 06 07 precision
    I just wanted to point out that Forum (June 6) has Han leading Rosario by 1 percent. This should go back into the too close to call panel. Personally, I'd prefer if Han won, but Rosario has a lot of brand recognition and Han seems like a fairly middling candidate. I know that Forum can produce odd results. And Rosario almost lost last time. But Sarah had far greater recognition. In fact, it's weird that the Libs had to get a staffer for this riding. I guess they couldn't attract candidates because stronger people thought they'd lose. In addition, all the elections going on in this riding are going to produce fatigue and low turnout. That benefits Rosario.
    14 06 06 MGK
    Interesting observation: The NDP is the only party that has more signs out for the federal by-election than for the provincial election. I take it as an indication (also supported anecdotally by conversations with various friends) that a lot of traditional NDP support in this area, still solidly with Joe Cressy, Tom Mulcair and the federal caucus, is feeling soft about the provincial team right now. (Although nobody I speak to has anything bad to say about Marchese, there is a lot of bitterness toward Horwath.) Even if the base ultimately votes for Rosario, he's not getting the volunteer effort that T-S New Democrats are used to.
    14 06 05 The Jackal
    It looks like the writing is on the wall for the NDP both on Jun 12 and the federal by-election around the corner. This will be one of few (if any) Liberal pick ups.
    14 06 02 ME
    3 factors will make this riding a Liberal pick up...the LIberal candidate, changing demographics and dippers voting Liberal...
    14 06 02 Marco Ricci
    Two new polls were released today - one from Abacus & one from EKOS. Both show NDP support down, and the Liberals way ahead in the 416 with the NDP a distant 3rd. I think this riding is now in play for the Liberals. Eg. Abacus has OLP at 49, PC at 25, NDP at 17 for Toronto. EKOS has similar numbers for 416 - 47 OLP, 24 PC, 20 NDP.
    14 05 27
    This is one riding where Mayoral Toronto politics are going to be huge. Andrea Horwath is no doubt calling Olivia Chow with a lot of favours to ask. Because of the sagging NDP popularity in the city, Chow would be walking a very dangerous road if she stuck her neck out a little too much for Andrea Horwath, in this, her former federal riding. The last thing she needs is to associate herself with a leader who's been so vague and regressive on transit.
    If I had to guess as of this moment who would win, I'd probably keep it orange, but I wouldn't put all my money on it.
    14 05 25 R.O.
    I'm still inclined to say ndp will keep this one , it was really close last time and I do think it's a riding the liberals could potentially win at some point . but last time they had a higher profile candidate in Sarah Thompson than current candidate Han Dong and they still came up short . I think its more likely they win federal riding than provincial one as Adam Vaughan is a high profile former city councillor .
    14 05 25 jeff316
    I might have to revise some of my earlier comments given the prevalence of Green party signs all over the riding. That's NDP support bled out of the party by recent events. This may not be close.
    14 05 24 PY
    A pall has suddenly been cast over the provincial NDP campaign, thanks to an open letter by Gerald Caplan against Andrea Horwath, which was also signed by several names that hold a lot of weight in general NDP circles, such as Winnie Ng (who lost in T-S federally to Tony Ianno), Judy Rebick, Cathy Crowe (who lost twice to Glen Murray provincially in Toronto Centre next door) and Michele Landsberg (wife of one Stephen Lewis).
    Now, while it hasn't been fully absorbed yet, veteran MPP and campaign co-chair Gilles Bisson has definitely thrown fuel to the fire, blasting some of the letter's signatories as not being real NDPers; now if he's including any of the four I previously mentioned, he's neither helping his own cause nor that of the provincial NDP.
    Thus, it begs the question of whether Caplan's letter will have a chilling effect on NDP supporters. If so, it could be the very break the Liberals (and Han Dong to a lesser extent) need.
    14 05 24 A.S.
    The apparent epicentre of the 'Fordwath' backlash, at least among the verbalizing chattering class--and yes, Han Dong *is* making more of a sign effort than his predecessors (and now with the added federal Adam Vaughan juggernaut to glide upon). But it remains to be seen whether (esp. compared to Vaughan) Dong is much of a disgruntled-Dipper draw; indeed, a lot of the latter element might just as well be inclined to park with the strong Green candidate, Tim Grant--then again, it's increasingly possible to just pile on the condopalooza votes and leave the Marchesephiles to their devices. (But then doubly again, 2011's close call may have been part result of ONDP forces taking, here in Jack'n'Olivia heartland, posthumous Jack Layton good will for granted. Maybe, like Mike Colle in 2011 vs 2007, they've 'learned'.)
    14 05 24 Marco Ricci
    I agree that Han Dong may have a chance to win here. This week he has been doing some joint-campaigning with Adam Vaughan & Justin Trudeau. There appears to be an attempt by the Liberals to overlap and link the two campaigns, and Dong posed for photos with Vaughan & Trudeau. Will be an interesting riding to watch on June 12 to see how it votes and whether people may vote one way provincially and another way federally. Or both the same way?
    14 05 22 Alice
    If Forum, Ekos and Ipsos are to be believed the Liberals are going to win big here.
    14 05 22 DL
    Han Dong has been canvassing in the riding for almost a year now and many residents know him. Dong has probably even a larger group of liberals helping him with the Campaign than Sarah Thompson. Many of these liberals are the Chinese Canadian Liberals, heck they are like a party within the Liberal party. Although this may sound crazy, but it will be interesting to see how much gender and a Chinese candidate plays a factor in the Trin-Spa this time around. I am sure most people who follow this riding provincially have thought about this. The last three provincial elections in Trin-spa provincially have been white female candidates. This is now a male Chinese candidate. So, there is a difference, because of the local Chinese community, and how voters chose their candidates because of gender. Dong is getting more signs in different areas, where Thompson couldn't get signs last time. So this will probably be a closer margins than the NDP are expecting. The NDP is polling badly in the 416 old Toronto areas. Whoever wins this, won't be more then 2000 votes or so.
    14 05 21 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Why are people saying that Sarah Thomson was such a strong candidate? Her mayoral campaign was a joke and the central party gave up on her in the last 2 weeks because they couldn't work with her. Rosario Marchese's support began to decline in 2007.
    Han Dong may not be a 'big name' but the Liberals are seriously targeting the riding. The ONDP strategists have come to the conclusion that the progressive urban middle classes and intelligentsia are worth sacrificing in a bid to appeal to all these 'ordinary folks' in Southwestern Ontario that Andrea Horwath apparently appeals to. Trinity-Spadina is the epicenter of this demographic, and it appears that Marchese is in trouble. Right now I'm saying TCTC.
    14 05 20 Marco Ricci
    I think it's possible that the Liberals can win this seat, but as I said below, I think they would have improved their chances if they ran Sarah Thomson again, rather than starting over with a new candidate. A high-profile candidate may have helped the Liberals against Marchese. For example, that's what the Federal Liberals are doing in the by-election. The latest Forum polls show that Adam Vaughan is leading NDP Joe Cressy. If the provincial polls are right that Horwath is losing ground to Wynne in Toronto, that could help Dong against Marchese. It will also be interesting to see if Adam Vaughan can maintain his lead over Joe Cressy in the Federal by-election, and if that helps Dong provincially.
    14 05 19 MH
    Recent polls by EKOS and Ipsos Reid show the NDP on the decline in the city of Toronto. If this trend continues or even stabilizes, it means that Rosario Marchese is headed for retirement, even though Han Dong is not the strongest of challengers.
    14 05 16 Marco Ricci
    I think the Liberals had a chance at picking up this riding after the 2011 election showed a close contest between long-term NDP incumbent Marchese and Liberal challenger Thomson. But I don't know yet whether Dong is going to be as strong a challenger for Marchese as Thomson was. The other issue for the Liberals is that they appear to be polling less well in 2014 than in 2011, and the NDP appears to be up. Marchese was considered vulnerable after the last election, and there were some in the NDP that thought he should retire or they could lose the riding this time. But right now, I give the edge to Marchese & the NDP based on the weaker Liberal trends in 2014. (Btw, now that there is a Federal by-election gong on here as well, that could create some confusion too in the weeks ahead!)
    14 05 15 KS
    Trinity-Spadina is one of the few opposition held seats that the Liberals are putting serious effort in. Han Dong, is no star candidate, but he is well organized in the community.
    There is a sense that veteran Rosario Marchese has been around for too long.
    Moreover, while Andrea Horwath's NDP has the ability to make gains in Southwestern Ontario, her numbers have weakened in Toronto. Kathleen Wynne has more appeal than Andrea Horwath in the downtown core.
    14 05 12 DL
    There is a good chance that the Liberals will not only eat up some of the NDP votes here but if they take swing 2000 of the Conservative votes the Liberal way, that will put Han Dong over Rosario. Voter turnout for the Liberal polls won in 2011 was worst than the NDP voter turnout, so imagine if Liberal polls the voter turnout for Liberal ballots cast is greater than NDP. The Liberals would win this one.
    14 05 11 Jef R.
    It's easy to think the Liberals will take this due to the results of the last provincial election, but it is not that simple. The thing people don't fully understand is that, traditionally, most NDP ridings are won on the margins. While a vote difference of 1300 seems slim to people that are used to watching the traditional PC-Liberal riding shift, in fact it's not that small of a gap for an NDP riding. Rosario has had a strong constituency focus with his work on the OMB and condos, and the people who care about this stuff are the ones who vote in each election. Big names are needed to top this type of politician and unlike the federal by election, the Liberals don't have this in Han Dong who, while earnest, is nothing special as far as candidates goes.
    14 05 09 JN
    Everyone always makes a big deal about how the condo developments in the area lean Liberal and will hand this over to them. No doubt the Liberals are working hard to take this riding as I was asked recently if I'd put up a lawn sign. However Marchese will still hold this riding as Dong is an unknown and has nowhere near the star power that Thomson had in the last election. With Olivia campaigning alongside Marchese the NDP will hold on to this riding.
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    This could Rosario Marchese's last run. He has been working harder in the constituency and has done good work on the OMB. However he seems to have been around too long and his margins of victory have been shrinking. Even six months after the orange wave, Marchese only won by 1300 votes.
    If that isn't bad enough, Andrea Horwath's left-Fordesque populism doesn't play well here, and defeating a more progressive Liberal budget doesn't play well in inner city Toronto at all. I don't know much about Han Dong, the Liberal candidate, but he has a shot.
    Interestingly many people supporting Marchese provincially are supporting Adam Vaughan federally, so there may be enough 'Adam Vaughan New Democrats' to save him.
    I also think the provincial election call may very well impact the federal by-election, where the Liberals outsmarted the NDP with Vaughan.
    14 05 06 DavenportLib
    Rosario is in deep jeopardy of losing his seat he has held for 24 years now. Han Dong have canvassed the riding hard and has connected with many voters. The Liberals have been gaining in the number of votes in the margin of victory versus Rosario in the last four elections. This may be the election where the Liberals will be over the top and beat out the NDP this time. Many residents are tired of Rosario who has been representing this riding for too long. Whoever wins, it will be less that 2000 votes.
    13 09 14
    This will be a nail biter. But lets have a look at the changes in this riding in the recent elections. Marchese's margin of victory has been declining in the last few elections. Sarah Thompson was practically abandoned here by the lib campaign in the last election because they thought she was toast. The almost won. This will be a key target for the lib campaign in search of a majority in the next election. The new condo developments seem to trend liberal, and as more move into the riding, the traditional NDP supporters are being outnumbered. With a slight increase in resources and ground troops (GOTV), as well as a star candidate (like Sarah) this will be a key liberal pick-up in the next election.
    13 07 01 John K.
    Will stay NDP. I believe the Liberal vote was so high last time around because Ontario PC supporters voted for Sarah, who is on the right of the Liberal party (just like Dalton was). With Wynne, and a further left candidate, the conservative voters will likely go back to the Ontario PCs. Rosario might lose some of his core support though, to the Liberals this time.
    13 06 19 Arden
    An interesting race, but I think it currently favours the NDP. Sheesh, I've made only a few predictions so far, but still haven't predicted a single seat change yet.... Nevertheless I see this as a hold. I doubt turn out will be great and I feel that will impact the LPO far worse than it will impact the NDP. Yes the margin has historically been closing between the LPO and the NDP, but that's no real guarantee of unseating the incumbent, only that the race MIGHT be closer this time. For now, especially with the LPO not doing that great in the polls, I call NDP hold.
    13 05 15 DL
    The Liberals have been gaining on Rosario Marchese, in the margin of votes for the victory, in every election since 1999. He won by 7300 votes in 1999, about 6300 votes in 2003, about 4300 in 2007 and only about 1000 votes last time in 2011. The Liberals nearly won this riding last time.
    The Liberals need to really, 'get out the vote' on election day, and go vote to take this riding. Many Liberals at the Condos seem to by lazy or busy but if they actually participated, the 2011 election for Trinity-Spadina riding would have gone Liberal.
    Although there seems to be enough N.D.P here in the riding to once again for Marchese to hang on to his seat but it isn't going to be a blowout victory or a safe seat as some predicts. Marchese has been in the riding for so long and many constituents want someone new or change, getting tired of him.
    13 03 14 MF
    It's quite remarkable that Rosario Marchese won Trinity-Spadina easily in the 1999 election when the NDP won just 9 seats province-wide, and yet he was nearly taken down by Sarah Thomson in the last election (and his vote started tapering off in 2007 when he was running against a Liberal paper candidate), when the NDP had its best showing province-wide since 1995 and just a few months after Olivia Chow won by 20,000 votes federally. So condo growth (in spite of his self-proclaimed
    13 02 16 seasaw
    One of the safest NDP seats. The NDP managed to hang on to this seat on years where there were two Tory majorities and two Liberal majorities. With NDP support surging, especially in 416, can't see this one going any other way.
    13 03 02 MF
    It's quite remarkable that Rosario Marchese won Trinity-Spadina easily in the 1999 election when the NDP won just 9 seats province-wide, and yet he was nearly taken down by Sarah Thomson in the last election (and his vote started tapering off in 2007 when he was running against a Liberal paper candidate), when the NDP had its best showing province-wide since 1995 and just a few months after Olivia Chow won by 20,000 votes federally. So condo growth (in spite of his self-proclaimed
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    Rosario survived a tough fight against a failed mayoral candidate, but he will go back to Tri Spa NDP numbers this time with a strong win.

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