Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:41:03

Constituency Profile


Bernier, Maxime

MacDonald, Céline Brown

Royer, Daniel

Trudel, Stéphane

Veilleux, Adam

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (274/274 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Maxime Bernier


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15 09 19 A.S.
It'll take a holographic Robert Cliche to unseat Mad Max, if even that's enough. (Though if the Cons are flirting with 10% in QC, it'd probably be more than enough.)
15 08 24 Spx
Even in a worst case scenario for the CPC, I can't see Bernier loosing his seat. So I'll put this one safely in the CPC column.
15 08 14 Sykes
Bernier is a popular second generation MP in one of the most conservative parts of Quebec. If Conservative support fell to a single seat in Quebec, this would likely be the seat.
15 03 28 monkey
This is the safest Conservative riding in Quebec and Maxime Bernier despite his tendency to say silly things is well liked here as well as this area has a very strong libertarian streak in contrast with much of the province. Otherwise if the Tories lose this, they won't win any seats in Quebec and will likely have a bad night nationally.
15 03 27 Craig Hubley
threehundredeight.com has a riding history that explains why Beauce is going to stay with Bernier. It's basically a family dynasty riding like Central Nova for the MacKays.
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
Given the >50% Conservative result, and Bernier's status and popularity, I don't see him losing even though his party as a whole is in free fall in Quebec. This is not a seat where the NDP or Bloc are going to catch up, nor one where they will focus, when there are weaker Conservative seats nearby.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
Solid Conservative. Bernier is quite popular and would probably win even if this region of Quebec was not normally right-leaning.
15 03 17 JFBreton
La Beauce est un terrain fertile pour les conservateurs. Maxime Bernier est apprécié des Beaucerons. Réélection facile des Conservateurs dans cette circonscription.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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