Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Profil de circonscription


Bergeron, Serge

Bernier, Maxime

Doyon Lessard, Etienne

Morin, Claude

Morin, Sylvio

L'hon. Maxime Bernier

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • beauce (213/213 Polls)
  • frontenac-megantic (2/174 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    According to my math, even if the NDP won 74 seats in Quebec (or the Liberals for that matter) this riding would stay Conservative. The Bloc meanwhile, would 'only' need to win 71.
    11 04 16 The Jackal
    This is currently the CPC's safest seat in Quebec. Whether it's a CPC seat or Bernier seat remains to seen.
    11 04 07 FP
    This one is a conservative Stronghold, despite Maxime Bernier... well Maxime Bernier. This riding is among the most federalist riding in ‘regions’. So, BQ is not a threat... And it is not NDP, neither liberals who could unseat Bernier.
    11 04 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Morin could not hold this riding for the Conservative-like ADQ, in a race without big personalities. I fail to see how he will be able to unseat Bernier. I do think, however, the Bloc may be pushed into third.
    11 03 31 Tony Ducey
    Bernier may not get into cabinet after the federal election but I see him having no trouble in getting re-elected.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    The Tories may lose seats in Quebec but not this one. If anything the fact Maxime Bernier is an outspoken type only helps him. Interestingly enough, several Tory seat losses in Quebec and them winning nationally may mean they have no choice but to bring him back to cabinet.
    11 03 23 PatriceLevesque
    Bernier is safe. Even if Claude Morin is a strong candidate for the Liberals. Bernier's lead is way too large for him to suddenly loose it all.
    Claude Morin is a good fellow, but he jumped out of the conservative ADQ and has become against conservatives as a federal Liberal.
    10 02 12 Charles Olivier
    Je ne suis pas s?r que la victoire sera si facile que cela pour Maxime Bernier. Les gens commencent a ?tre ?coeur?s de ses frasques et vivant moi-m?me en Beauce, croyez-moi, Bernier a perdu beaucoup de plumes surtout depuis un an et l'annonce de la candidature de Claude Morin, ancien d?put? de l'ADQ qui ira chercher beaucoup de votes conservateurs. La lutte sera tr?s serr?e ici, et je vois une courte vicoitre lib?rale.
    09 09 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    A few months ago we would say that this riding was the only save CPC riding in the province. With the CPC now at about 20% in Quebec others are safe too. Doesn't matter though, Maxime is a favorite son of La Beauce and he'd win running for any party he wants.
    09 09 13 binriso
    Barring any miracle the Conservatives will win again here but the riding has an odd history that has shown alot of unexpected results.
    It was mostly a Liberal fortress in the first 80 years of its existence, lost only a couple times to the PCs and independents.
    Held by a Union Nationale provincial MNA turned independent federal MP in much of the 1940s and 50s, the Liberals actually *gained* this seat in the 1958 Diefenbaker landslide (possibly their only gain in the country) due to vote splitting between the PC and independent candidates. Won by the Social Credit Party in 1962 and 63 it was won back by the Liberals in 1965 with a star *NDP* candidate who actually beat the Social Credit for 2nd. Oddly enough it was lost by a large margin in 1968 Trudeaumania to the SoCreds but regained in 1972 when the Liberals had a down election in Quebec as a whole. The Liberals held in 74 but lost in 79 due to Fabien Roy's candidacy for the SoCreds but regained the seat in 1980 by a small margin. You would think with its reputation as a very conservative riding it would be a landslide for the PCs in 1984, but Gilles Bernier only won by about 4000 votes, though he won in 1988 by about 24000. Of course against all odds and fraud accusations and 4-way vote splitting on the federalist side, he held the seat as an independent against the BQ. It went Liberal between 97-06 although the BQ were quite close in 04 and Conservative since then in landslide numbers and it would be a surprise if the Conservatives dont retain it this election, but there are a lot of interesting examples in this ridings history of unusual occurences at the ballot box.
    09 09 09 Nick J Boragina
    ?the Bloc could well fall in third place; if that happens, it would be, if I'm not mistaken, a first in a unilingual francophone riding.?
    Lets go to the numbers! Research time!!
    in 1993 the Bloc finished first or second in every riding. In 1997 they finished Third in Gatineau, and 7 Montreal ridings. In 2000 they finished third in 3 Montreal ridings. In 2004, 3 Montreal ridings. In 2006 finished third or fourth in 4 Montreal ridings. In 2008 they finished third or worse in 7 Montreal ridings plus Pontiac.
    So no, the Bloc has never finished third or worse in a riding outside the Montreal-Outaouais area.
    Also, this riding will be Bernier in a sweep.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    While I expect an easy Conservative win, I have to mention that for some reason the Liberal Party seems to believe that they really have a good chance of winning this riding. They do have a popular candidate in Claude Morin (the former ADQ MNA for Beauce-Sud, not the former PQ minister) and they will certainly get more votes this time, but I can't see the Liberals winning here. One interesting thing to watch, though, is that the Bloc could well fall in third place; if that happens, it would be, if I'm not mistaken, a first in a unilingual francophone riding.
    09 08 30 Stevo
    Aucun Liberal ne peut surmonter ses victoires enormes en 2006 et 2008. Meme si tous les autres Conservateurs au Quebec perdent leurs sieges, Maxime Bernier survivra sans doute. Au moins ca l'assurera un boulot dans le Cabinet si les Conservateurs gagneront l'election prochaine.
    09 08 26 JF Breton
    Malgré tout le tapage médiatique de la dernière élection, Maxime Bernier a été réélu avec une écrasante majorité (25000 voix) dans une circonscription fédéraliste qui vote pour l'homme avant tout. Réélection facile de Bernier.
    09 08 25 NorthernRaven
    Maxime Bernier won the riding with 31,883 vs. the BQ at 7,143, taking 62% of the vote and performing very similar last time. At he won despite being kicked out of Cabinet. We can safely assume his personal popularity in his community will ensure his win until he vacates his seat.

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