Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères

Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:20:42

Constituency Profile


Barsalou-Duval, Xavier

Fortin, Raphaël

Gagnon, Lucie

Lauzon, JiCi

Maheux, Clovis

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2910.55%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Verchères-Les Patriotes
   (155/202 polls, 77.89% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Sana Hassainia

   (41/202 polls, 19.36% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre Nantel

   (6/202 polls, 2.75% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Matthew Dubé


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15 10 17 Marco Ricci
The BQ claimed in Le Journal De Montreal last week that their numbers predict them winning 9 seats in Quebec.
Whether that happens remains to be seen. But Chantal Hebert did write earlier this week that it's possible there could be a few surprise pickups in Quebec depending on how the vote breaks down.
15 10 11 JFBreton
Possible gain du Bloc. Le NPD va palir de l'expérience désastreuse de son ancienne députée. Présence de Jici Lauzon pour les Verts. Circonscription très nationaliste. Le Bloc pourrait se faufiler entre les candidats.
15 10 05 mr_vince
tight race here as NPD Sinks and bloc raises.
Boucherville will tend more to vote NPD but all the rest of the riding: Varennes, Verchères, Calixa-Lavallée, Contrecoeur and Tracy (not sure if Tracy in Saurel or not) will go BQ. With Bécancour-Niclet-Saurelm this riding is probably in the five most sovereignist riding in BQ (along with Gaspésie)
I won't be surprised if BQ wins here. Especially when NPD had 75% chance of winning and now are at 53%.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
A week or so ago, a dozen or two Quebec ridings were changed to the NDP here at the EPP. Since then, the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec.
There are a number of ridings currently predicted to go NDP that could go to another party if polls continue to drop. They are:
Pierre-Boucher, Salaberry, Abitibi, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Rimouski, Louis Hebert, and LaSalle.
In this riding in particular... the Bloc has a strong history, strongest in the area.
15 09 20 A.S.
I can see why this seat might have earned its earlier Bloc projection; not just the Sana Hassainia fiasco, but also that this is rather fabled provincial PQ territory (former Premier Bernard Landry being among past representatives), and--believe it or not--in the former Vercheres seat, even in losing Luc Malo earned the second highest Bloc share of 2011! Of course, Duceppe/Beaulieu may be dog-whistling this good thing away; but even so, I can't offer anything firm.
15 08 26 Marco Ricci
I agree with the last several posts below.
This riding is leaning NDP. The latest CROP poll shows the BQ falling to 3rd in Québec, below the level of support they received in 2011. The Duceppe effect is over according to the Québec analysts (at least for now).
It's possible that things may change again in Québec later this fall when the French debates occur, but for now the BQ is not in a good position.
Btw, the 308 projection site shows this riding as leaning NDP with an 81% chance of a win.
15 08 25 JFBreton
Les plus récents sondages placent le NPD à plus de 40% au Québec, loin devant ses adversaires. Le plus récent CROP place même le NPD à 51% chez les francophones. Le Bloc oscille entre 15 et 20%. Je mise sur un gain du NPD dans cette circonscription francophone de la rive-sud de Montréal, malgré son terreau nationaliste.
15 08 24 Spx
I don't really understand why this riding has a Bloc prediction at all - at this point I would say the Bloc will be wiped off the electoral map altogether. This should be a NDP hold.
15 08 18 Drhugh
This riding was a close face-off between the Bloc and NPD, with the Liberals a respectable third
The shock resignation of the Liberal candidate, who fell foul with the Elections Quebec over expenses, is going to divert more of the federalist vote to the NPD.
15 08 18 Expat
A Bloc call here doesn't made sense, absent a high-profile star candidate. It is otherwise TCTC at best, but unless someone with local input can explain better it certainly looks NDP.
The 2011 redistributed numbers would have the NDP 10% higher in this riding, and the NDP is polling about the same while the Bloc is by all measures polling worse than 2011, and without the benefit of incumbency.
The Liberals have also just lost their candidate, who forgot to pay back a previous election loan. This would more help the NDP and not the Bloc.
Reference: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/08/17/francine-crevier-belair-liberal-quebec-quits_n_8000666.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
15 08 03 Justin
Polls show the BQ doing worse, not better compared to 2011, now that the Duceppe effect is fading in the polls.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 05 04 JFBreton
Trop tôt pour prédire un gagnant, ce sera une lutte intéressante à surveiller. JC Lauzon a été investi comme candidat vert. Il bénéficie d'une bonne notoriété. http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2015/05/04/001-jici-lauzon-candidat-parti-vert-canada-pierre-boucher-les-patriotes-vercheres.shtml
15 03 30 Jack Cox
This is maybe one of a handful of seats in play for the BQ, I would consider this, Montcalm, B-N-S, Richmond-Arthabaska and potentially Sherbrooke as the places for them to win, you can be sure the BQ is going to put it's resources into the seats where they can win and I think they will narrowly take it though Francois Beaulne is a potential NDP candidate and he was former PQ member so he has a good shot at winning.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
After narrowly electing, what could be described, as the worst MP in the orange wave, this is one of the best chances of a BQ take-back. If the NDP want to keep this seat, they will need to work hard here. The BQ certainly will be focusing efforts in these parts.

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