Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:41:17

Constituency Profile


Brunelle, Claude

Charron, Maxime

Demers, Julie

Dubourg, Emmanuel

Laguerre, Dolmine

Léveillé, Gilles

Ndzana, Jean-Marie Floriant

Potasso-Justino, Jason

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1430.38%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (178/207 polls, 89.58% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Emmanuel Dubourg

   (27/207 polls, 10.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Maria Mourani


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15 09 17 #ABC51
With the Liberals currently within 15 points of the NDP in Quebec as a whole and even closer on Montreal Island, I don't see how the NDP is able to continue making inroads in this part of the province.
Even without Paradis, the Liberals should hold on here, unfortunately.
15 09 15 A.S.
Faint hope it may be, but if we're looking at a near-SNP-scale wipeout on behalf of Team Mulcair, Bourassa as it now stands would be among the likelier Lib seats to fall--though maybe not so likely, were Coderre stil MP.
15 08 26 Marco Ricci
Bourassa was leaning NDP on the 308 seat projections earlier this month, but it is now showing an 82% chance of a Liberal win. (August 25, 2015)
But I will leave it TCTC just in case it switches back & forth again.
15 07 16 Dr Bear
I too feel this should be TCTC. Redistribution has not been kind to the grits in this riding. Never the less, the incumbent is well known, well established and will have a good team on the ground. It'll be much closer than what Coderre used to get.
15 07 06 Poll Reviewer
308.com has this riding at 69% for the NDP as of July 6. The methodology does not necessarily predict individual ridings, but gives a good idea of regional trends.
Obviously too early to make a change of call, but this should be TCTC at this point.
15 04 01 Marco Ricci
Some people wondered if the main reason this seat stayed Liberal during the Orange Wave in 2011 was because of Denis Coderre. While Coderre's popularity certainly helped, the fact that Emmanuel Dubourg was able to win the riding in the 2013 by-election and increase the Liberal margin despite a strong challenge by NDP star candidate Stéphane Moraille (who lost 1 point) showed that this is not just a Denis Coderre riding.
Moraille is not running again and the NDP has a lower-profile candidate for 2015, Dolmine Laguerre. Does this mean that Moraille thought Dubourg will win again?
2 other interesting points:
1.) The NDP had a somewhat divisive nomination last month with 2011 NDP candidate Julie Demers losing to new candidate Dolmine Laguerre and threatening to run as an Independent after making allegations of improper membership signups for the nomination.
2.) Re-distribution takes away a pro-Liberal portion of Bourassa and gives it to Honoré-Mercier (which probably helps former Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez in his comeback attempt) but could cancel out some of Dubourg's by-election increase since it brings in a portion of Ahuntsic which is less favourable to the Liberals.
15 03 28 monkey
If they could hold this in 2011 which was a disaster for the Liberals, I expect them to hold this in 2015. The NDP may very well come out on top in Quebec, but it will likely be in the heavily Francophone ridings, not the mixed ones.
15 03 20 JFBreton
Emmanuel Dubourg ne craint rien dans ce château-fort libéral qui a résisté à la vague orange de 2011. Je prédis une victoire libérale avec une plus grande avance.

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