Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-30 18:56:56

Constituency Profile


Chicoine, Sylvain

Mercier, Jency

Shanahan, Brenda

St-Pierre, Philippe

Stanké, Sophie

Sullivan, Linda

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1050.23%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (123/190 polls, 67.68% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Sylvain Chicoine

   (67/190 polls, 32.32% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Anne Minh-Thu Quach


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15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Careful with the quick and crazy predictions for the conservatives and/or bloc. Both parties are up in the polls, but they are only polling (at the moment) around what they had on e-day in 2011. They were so far behind in Quebec that they are just now caught up to where they were when they bombed in the province. Extrapolating a result from current poll numbers, we are looking at a safe NDP win though much closer than 2011.
15 09 02 A.S.
To detractors, another 'Orange Dog Dipper' for the books: Chicoine's been sued by an ex-staffer for wrongful dismissal, he's been tarred by the wouldbe 'satellite office scandal', and yet he's as safe as can be, even if Chateaugay proper's got some heavy-duty Lib-leaning Anglo pockets, and even if the Liberal leader's father is buried within the riding.
15 03 30 Mr. Montreal
The Liberals are going to make some inroads here, but it won't be enough. Châteauguay has a respectable English-speaking population and it's very close to Khanawake. That said, after the federal redistribution the riding now includes Sainte-Martine and Napierville, which are fairly nationalist.
15 03 30 Fairview Resident
Right now, Quebec looks like a 4-way race that could break for the NDP, Bloc or Liberals during an election campaign (I doubt the Tories can pick up much more support). In the right conditions, any of these 3 parties could take this 450 riding. Threehundredeight is predicting 35/22/21/16 for NDP/BQ/LPC/CPC with 77% confidence of an NDP win based on current polling. Given the 2011 margin, Chicoine's incumbency and the fact that the NDP still hold a significant share of the vote in Quebec, I'd say they're favoured at this point but are unlikely to win by as much of a margin as in 2011. Given Quebec's volatility during general elections, I think that many ridings like this are really TCTC. It'll really depend on what happens after the writ drops.
15 03 30 JC
The average of polls in Chateauguay Lacolle show this riding at NDP 34, LPC 23, BQ 22, CPC 17 and GRN 2%. I think Sylvain Chicoine should win this easilly.
15 03 29 monkey
Most likely will stay NDP, but this will probably go as it always has for whichever party dominates Quebec and considering Quebecers have been known to swing en masse to a party on a moment's notice, I will await until we get closer to e-day before predicting this one.
15 03 29 JFBreton
Ce sera assurément une lutte intéressante dans cette circonscription, à trois ou à quatre. Je mise sur une nette augmentation du vote libéral, ce qui pourrait fausser le jeu. Trop tôt pour prédire un vainqueur.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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