Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Lac-Saint-Jean


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:29:34
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dallaire, Gisèle

Gaudreault, Sabin

Lebel, Denis

Requilé, Laurence

Simard, Sabin


Population/populations
(2011 census)

105783


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2294642.27%
1744632.13%
17663.25%
1140321.00%
7291.34%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
   (188/263 polls, 70.79% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Denis Lebel
17831
10510
1451
8108
516


   Jonquière-Alma
   (75/263 polls, 29.21% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Claude Patry
5115
6936
315
3295
213



 


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15 10 15 Jeff S
12.10.199.10
I wouldn't be so quick to call this one for Lebel. Concerns over TPP could be enough to push this one to the NDP. Right now it's close.
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201510/14/01-4909918-denis-lebel-maintient-sa-mince-avance.php
15 09 29 R.O.
24.146.23.226
Denis Lebel has been mp of this riding since 2007 and has become a high profile mp from quebec . as polls now seem to indicate ndp support is down in Quebec . its more likely he holds this riding . even if the area has been more of a bloc Quebecois area historically .
Denis Lebel a été député de cette circonscription depuis 2007 et est devenu un profil élevé mp du Québec . Les sondages semblent maintenant indiquer l'appui du NPD est à la baisse au Québec . son plus susceptibles qu'il détient cette circonscription . Même si la région a été plus d'un bloc Québécois région historiquement .
15 09 21 JFBreton
216.218.2.47
Segma Recherche Polls for Le Quotidien/Énergie-Rouge FM. PCC: 34,7% NDP:29,4%. The victory will play out on the ability to make people vote. Net benefit to the Conservatives here.
15 09 22 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Now that polls are showing a tighter-than-anticipated race for Denis Lebel, I respond: hey, I could have told you all along. Suffice to say that were Lebel *not* there in 2011, the Orange Crush would've nabbed this handily. After all, for whatever Lebel brings to the table, the Lac-Saint-Jean region isn't exactly 'Beaucien', i.e. it's not been terribly provincially inclined t/w the ADQ/CAQ lineage, the PQ remains strong, and Premier Couillard represents Roberval. And even Lebel's own predecessor in LSJ was briefly a political leader: the BQ's Michel Gauthier. Even if he's not quite Dead Con Walking yet, Lebel's in the position where in his absence, LSJ's likely to 'return to normal', and said 'normal' won't be CPC...
15 09 20 Nick M.
207.228.78.224
I have to applaud Dr. Bear and his analysis. I pose this question though, is the morale of the Bloc troop strong enough to endure such a painful campaign, one where they know official opposition is out of the question.
Low Morale will keep the average voter home. But the diehard is dedicated, and I don't know enough about how many diehard the Bloc grassroots.
Only thing that I think can prevent the NDP win here, is the strength of the Bloc grassroots to bleed support away from the NDP.
I just feel that the Bloc is much weaker this election, and the same goes for the CPC. That is why I am choosing the NDP.
15 09 15 Dr.Bear
204.187.16.156
Minister, shminister! Being in cabinet did diddly-squat for Lawrence Cannon or Josee Vernier. When your party is going down, so are the cab-mins.
Now let's think about this riding and do some math...
The BQ is polling at about half what it got in 2011 and most of that has gone to the NDP. In that election, the CPC got about 42% in this riding; the NDP got about 32%; the BQ got about 21%. So if this riding follows the general trends, then we can expect the BQ to get about 10.5% and the NDP getting 42.5%. Uh-oh, the NDP win with such numbers, and that doesn't take into account that the CPC are generally down from 2011.
Having said that, there are a number of other factors we need to consider. First, the BQ are targeting the Lac Saint Jean region, as it is an area where they have always had strong support. They need to focus their scarce resources on areas where they can win seats. That said, we probably won't see the BQ losing half of their support here. Second, as I said in my previous post, Lebel is personally popular and much of the support is for him and not for the CPC. That said, the drop in Conservative support seen nation-wide won't be as pronounced here. With all that, I think this riding is too close to call (though if compelled to make a decision, I say Lebel in a squeeker).
15 09 04 Tony
71.7.250.207
Lebel will hold this, he's been one of Harper's better ministers.
15 08 24 Spx
70.53.241.122
I am not so convinced that Lebel is going to win this one. The redistribution of the riding already diluted the CPC vote by 4% and with the Bloc and CPC being province wide lower, it won't take a lot of swing for the NDP to pick this one up. So I will call this one for now a NDP gain.
15 08 07 Observer
24.156.205.18
Prime predictor, I posted it in this riding in error. I did not intend to post that under Lac St. jean. Drop-down menus.. There is no way lebel is going to lose here, barring a complete Tory collapse.
15 07 27 Prime Predictor
131.137.245.206
This is Lebel's riding. CPC hold. Don't know what Observer is going on about...
15 06 09 Observer
24.156.205.18
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 06 09 Observer
24.156.205.18
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
69.172.99.97
This is a Label riding, not a Conservative riding. People are voting for the man, not the party. Regardless, the region (despite separatist leanings) is fertile ground for the CPC. While I'm reluctant to say the CPC will make significant gains in Quebec, should they start to look good to Quebecers, watch for neighboring ridings to turn blue.
15 03 18 JFBreton
96.23.214.160
Réélection du ministre Denis Lebel, lieutenant politique de Harper au Québec. Présent dans les médias et sur le terrain, pourrait même faire basculer les deux autres circonscriptions du Saguenay dans le giron conservateur.



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