Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:31:55

Constituency Profile


Berthiaume, David

Berthold, Luc

Delisle, Jean-François

Gervais, Justin

Provost, Virginie

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2500.55%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (213/220 polls, 97.82% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Christian Paradis

   (7/220 polls, 2.18% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Maxime Bernier


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15 09 29 R.O.
High profile conservative mp Christian Paradis decided to not run for re-election in this riding but conservatives have a new candidate Luc Berthold who was the mayor of Thetford Mines. With ndp support now down in Quebec I see no reason to suggest this riding won't stay conservative but it may be closer than 2011.
Profil haut mp conservateur Christian Paradis a décidé de ne pas se représenter aux élections de cette circonscription, mais les conservateurs ont un nouveau candidat Luc Berthold qui était le maire de Thetford Mines. Avec l'appui du NPD maintenant au Québec, je ne vois aucune raison de suggérer cette circonscription ne reste pas conservateur mais il peut-être plus proche qu'en 2011.
15 09 21 A.S.
For all of Paradis's ability to endure, I never saw this, and still don't see this (esp. post-Megantic disaster) as natural Con-a-la-Beauce--sure, he might have known how to play 'chrysotile politics' relative to Thedford Falls; but aren't mining-towns-in-decline typically more of an NDP thing?. It helped Paradis in 2011 that his NDP opponent was a poteau; but now we have a distracting opposite--a Quebec NDP hopeful who's playing the anti-Muslim race card. Oh, my...
15 09 15 Dr.Bear
While polling sites are calling this for the CPC, I'm not so certain. These sites often rely heavily on previous results and it is unclear if the 49% were votes cast for Paradis or for the Conservatives; Paradis was quite popular in his own right. In elections past, both the Liberals and the BQ won this riding handily, depending on regional trends at the time. Without a popular incumbent, the voters may decide to give the surging NDP a shot (like the rest of the Eastern Townships did in 2011). One also has to consider the fallout (if any) of the Lac Megantic disaster. I say this is too close to call.
15 08 27 Spx
With the latest poll numbers having the NDP even higher and the CPC in free fall, I think pretty much all CPC ridings in the province except Beauce are probably in play now .. so I'll put this one in TCTC for now, leaning NDP though
15 08 21 Balon
Three recent polls - CROP in Quebec, a national Abacus poll, and a Quebec-heavy Leger poll - all have the NDP at 40+ % in the province and the CPC and Bloc in the mid-teens. The CROP poll in particular has the NDP at 45% in the Quebec City region while the CPC are at 23%, LPC at 18% and Bloc at 13%. Kinda looking like a second Orange Crush.
While I assume Lebel and Bernier will win their seats for the Conservatives, with numbers like these, there is almost no chance the other ridings in this area will vote anything but NDP.
15 07 31 Woodworth
Until the Conservatives nominate a candidate here this seat is between them and the NDP. Wildcard is the LPC Megantic tragedy.
15 07 14 MadCaper
This was a solid win for the C.P.C. in the last election and although there will be a new name on the ballot for the Tories this time there is a lot of ground to make up for the New Democrats who are seen as the only serious challange to the Conservatives.This being said the New Democrats have made inroads in this riding and cannot be completely discounted.I say this for 2 reasons.Firstly the New Democrats could continue to gain strength in the Province mainly at the expense of the Bloc and Tories.Should this happen you may get some spillage to the New Democrats in this riding.Secondly if the Conservatives continue to fall in the polls and their vote collapses in Quebec,in this riding tht vote would bleed to the New Democrats more than any other party.Only time will tell but for now I would say this is the Conservatives to lose.C.P.C. hold.
15 04 05 Fairview Resident
Despite the 2011 result and polling math pointing to a Conservative win, the 2013 Lac Mégantic tragedy and now Paradis' decision not to run make this a very tough riding to call. I understand how difficult it would be for anyone to run for reelection after such a tragedy. Also Craig, I am no fan of this government but I have a hard time with people blaming them for the rail disaster. The MM&A railway, which operated the train that derailed, faces multiple charges of criminal negligence. The crown wouldn't lay these charges if there wasn't a strong case. The Tories on the other hand are ultimately advocating and lobbying (however ineptly) for the transportation of oil over land by pipeline, which results in less spillage than transportation by truck or by train.
15 04 03 ME
Paradis is not running again...and the NDP will flip this seat.
15 04 03 PY
Update: Christian Paradis won't run after all...given this latest development, I stand behind by my earlier comment that it'll be an open-ended race in Mégantic-L'Érable.
15 04 03 Marco Ricci
Christian Paradis announced today that he is not running in 2015.
While the area probably still leans Conservative, this may open up the race a bit to the NDP (and possibly the Liberals if they can raise their numbers in this region).
15 04 03 JC
I think this needs to be moved TCTC, Paradis is not running for re-election.
15 04 02 PY
This screams TCTC so loud that I sometimes hear my name as well when it happens.
I have to agree with Craig...as go the people of Lac-Mégantic, so could potentially go the riding. If indeed the town's residents heap their scorn and blame upon Christian Paradis for the tragedy that befell them, then his political career will be finished.
As for who could win, I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a free-for-all with Paradis squarely in the middle. The only question for me is whether the fledgling Forces et Démocratie party will be able to field a candidate. If so, this has the makings of a five-way race (the BQ has represented previous forms of the riding in the past).
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
Minister of Asbestos Christian Paradis didn't keep the asbestos flowing. That's got to count for something.
Lac-Megantic is in this riding, and Conservative wilful neglect of rail safety and turn-a-blind-eye issuance of unsafe operating permits killed 47 people there. That's got to count for something.
Basically I am not willing to predict that the people of this riding are fools who vote for their own destruction. Then again they did vote for asbestos mining and its promotion worldwide, so maybe that's optimism.
In Lac-Megantic though it was their own lives choked off, not some poor people in India whose asbestos tiles fell through into their houses.
15 03 17 JFBreton
Terrain fertile pour les Conservateurs au Québec, avec un vieux fond conservateur, comme pour la Beauce et Bellechasse. Paradis pourra facilement se glisser premier dans une lutte à trois ou à quatre.

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