Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:14:00

Constituency Profile


Ang, Yumi Yow Mei

DesRoches, Gisèle

Leclerc, Martin

Perreault, Manon

Thériault, Luc

Thouin, Louis-Charles

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (164/180 polls, 91.31% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Manon Perreault

   (16/180 polls, 8.69% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jean-François Larose


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15 10 17 CH
Due to Manon Perrault running for no-name Forces et Democratie, the incumbency advantage goes to a convicted candidate running for a little-known party. This, however, could swing just enough points for the incredible NDP fall in Québec to give this seat to the Bloc.
15 09 21 JFBreton
Retrait du candidat du Bloc québécois pour avoir fait l'éloge du Front national, au moment où le NPD trône en haut des sondages au Québec. Victoire du NPD. http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201509/20/01-4902306-un-candidat-du-bloc-se-retire-apres-avoir-encense-le-fn.php
15 08 16 Marco Ricci
Ex-NDP MP Manon Perreault is now running for Forces et Démocratie:
15 08 03 Justin
The Bloc surge is tapering off and F&D has yet to become noticed by voters. NDP hold.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 05 24 A.S.
An emblem of Orange Crush growing pains: besides being paraplegic, Manon Perreault was the rare Quebec NDP victor to actually have prior elected experience (on Ste-Marie-Salome council)--but then, she blew herself out of caucus through a fraud and mischief charge. Otherwise, it's the perfect ultra-ex-exurban landslide-Bloc-turned-landslide-NDP seat--together, those parties tallied over *83%* in 2011, so it's hard to see how LibCon can pose any threat here; and as for the Bloc, well, it's the Beaulieu Bloc now, so crossed fingers for regaining official party status. (Though would Perreault be the sort to bid as an independent?)
15 03 28 monkey
A fairly nationalist riding so should probably go NDP, but I am holding off calling as Quebecers are known for switching on a moment's notice.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
As it stands now very good chance this is one of the few ridings the BQ picks up. This is a pretty hard-line sovereignist riding and with the polls showing a 4 way race, a good chance for a bloc win.

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