Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-22 09:42:12

Constituency Profile


Bellemare, Réjean

Cloutier, Johnathan

Dudas, Adriana

Gilbert, Yoland

Lefebvre, Jonathan

Pauzé, Monique

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (233/233 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jean-François Larose


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15 09 12 Mr. Dave
Having an NDP candidate who ran three times before in this riding will give the voters another reason to stay with the Orange Wave once again.
NDP hold!
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
With sky-high support for the NDP in Quebec and faltering BQ support, this riding will stay in the orange column.
15 08 21 Krago
For some bizarre reason, Jean-François Larose is running in La Pointe-de-l'Île instead of Repentigny. With the NDP flying high in the most recent Quebec polls, this should be an easy hold.
15 08 15 Marco Ricci
The Conservatives have removed candidate Buddy Ford for not disclosing that he was charged for marijuana possession several years ago:
15 08 03 Justin
The NDP won a majority of votes last time. Meanwhile the F&D will take equally from the Bloc and NDP, but won't be a big threat themselves. The NDP should retain a big lead here.
15 08 01 A.S.
I'm willing to bet that Larose's FeD candidacy eats more from the Bloc than from the NPD, regardless of what party he ran for in 2011.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 04 09 B.W.
Rejean Bellemare has been a NDP candidate for Repentigny in the previous elections in 2006 and 2008, where he finished second behind the Bloc incumbent. However, Bellemare did not run in 2011 due to his term as president of the FTQ, so he missed out on the Layton wave. With the departure of current MP, Jean Francois Larose from the NDP caucus to form Forces et Democratie with former Bloc MP Jean-Francois Fortin, Bellemare has a chance of being elected for the NDP in Repentigny. The party also has the endorsement of Bellemare's co-union members within the FTQ.
15 03 28 monkey
A fairly nationalist riding so should probably go NDP, but I am holding off calling as Quebecers are known for switching on a moment's notice.
15 03 28 JFBreton
Bien malin qui pourrait prédire un vainqueur ici. D'un côté le candidat de Force et Démocratie, ancien député néodémocrate. De l'autre, un nouveau candidat néodémocrate impliqué dans sa communauté. Sans compter l'impossibilité de déterminer quelle sera le poids des autres candidats, particulièrement du Bloc. Comme disent les anglais: TCTC!

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